Females of many socially monogamous bird species commonly engage in extra-pair copulations. Assuming that extra-pair males are more attractive than the females’ social partners and that attractiveness has a heritable component, sex allocation theory predicts facultative overproduction of sons among extra-pair offspring (EPO) as sons benefit more than daughters from inheriting their father’s attractiveness traits. Here, we present a large-scale, three-year study on sex ratio variation in a passerine bird, the coal tit (Parus ater). Molecular sexing in combination with paternity analysis revealed no evidence for a male-bias in EPO sex ratios compared to their within-pair maternal half-siblings. Our main conclusion, therefore, is that facultative sex allocation to EPO is absent in the coal tit, in accordance with findings in several other species. Either there is no net selection for a deviation from random sex ratio variation (e.g. because extra-pair mating may serve goals different from striving for ‘attractiveness genes’) or evolutionary constraints preclude the evolution of precise maternal sex ratio adjustment. It is interesting to note that, however, we found broods without EPO as well as broods without mortality to be relatively female-biased compared to broods with EPO and mortality, respectively. We were unable to identify any environmental or parental variable to co-vary with brood sex ratios. There was no significant repeatability of sex ratios in consecutive broods of individual females that would hint at some idiosyncratic maternal sex ratio adjustment. Further research is needed to resolve the biological significance of the correlation between brood sex ratios and extra-pair paternity and mortality incidence, respectively. 相似文献
A major objective of analyzing multiple year tag return data in fisheries is to estimate fishing and natural mortality rates which may vary by age class and calendar year. To do this one needs to be able to estimate the reporting rates for the tags recovered. Some fisheries such as that for Southern Bluefin Tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) have multiple components with potentially different reporting rates for the tag returns. In this paper we develop a general model for multi-cohort, multi-year tag return analyses where there are multiple components to the fishery with potentially different reporting rates. We require the assumption that one component has a reporting rate of 100% (i.e., this could be the component of a boat based fishery where scientific observers are present). We show further how it is possible to partition the overall likelihood developed into two conditionally independent components. The first component of the likelihood is the standard multinomial likelihood that allows estimation of fishing and natural mortality rates. It uses the tag return matrix summed over all the components of the fishery. It requires an average reporting rate for the tag returns (where the average reporting rate is a weighted average of the individual reporting rates of the different components). The second component is also multinomial for the individual component tag returns and allows us to estimate individual component reporting rates. However, this requires that we augment our second component tag return likelihood with a catch data likelihood for the corresponding components. The methodology is illustrated on some Southern Bluefin Tuna tagging and catch data. We also discuss important model assumptions and give suggestions for future research including the integration of tag-return and catch at age data analyses. 相似文献
Data on individual tree mortality in relatively healthy (Berezinskiy biosphere reserve) and damaged (surroundings of the mineral fertilizer plant ‘Achema’) even-aged Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands are presented. Tree size and competition intensity were found to be the most significant predictors of individual tree mortality in all age groups of the relatively healthy Scots pine stands, however, an essential reduction in the closeness of relations between the tree mortality rate and these variables was determined with the aging of stands. An exponential decrease in tree mortality probability with an increase of tree size is characteristic for trees suffering different competition intensity, however, this decrease becomes much more pronounced as the competition pressure increases. The relations of different tree and stand variables with tree mortality probability have been found to become much weaker in the polluted environment. An exponential increase in tree mortality probability with an increase of crown defoliation was characteristic of damaged Scots pine stands, however, the rate of the increase was different in different age and diameter classes. The impact of crown defoliation on tree mortality rate increased with the aging of stands. At the same defoliation level, individual tree mortality probability was much higher for smaller suppressed trees, however, a relative increase in tree mortality probability along with an increase of crown defoliation was more pronounced for dominant trees. Conclusion: a higher mortality of damaged (defoliated) trees should be considered while assessing losses in forest productivity in a polluted environment. 相似文献
Background: In 2011, about 30,000 people died in motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) in the United States. We sought to evaluate the causes of prehospital deaths related to MVCs and to assess whether these deaths were potentially preventable.
Methods: Miami–Dade Medical Examiner records for 2011 were reviewed for all prehospital deaths of occupants of 4-wheeled motor vehicle collisions. Injuries were categorized by affected organ and anatomic location of the body. Cases were reviewed by a panel of 2 trauma surgeons to determine cause of death and whether the death was potentially preventable. Time to death and hospital arrival times were determined using the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data from 2002 to 2012, which allowed comparison of our local data to national prevalence estimates.
Results: Local data revealed that 39% of the 98 deaths reviewed were potentially preventable (PPD). Significantly more patients with PPD had neurotrauma as a cause of death compared to those with a nonpreventable death (NPD) (44.7% vs. 25.0%, P =.049). NPDs were significantly more likely to have combined neurotrauma and hemorrhage as cause of death compared to PPDs (45.0% vs. 10.5%, P <.001). NPDs were significantly more likely to have injuries to the chest, pelvis, or spine. NPDs also had significantly more injuries to the following organ systems: lung, cardiac, and vascular chest (all P <.05). In the nationally representative FARS data from 2002 to 2012, 30% of deaths occurred on scene and another 32% occurred within 1 h of injury. When comparing the 2011 FARS data for Miami–Dade to the remainder of the United States in that year, percentage of deaths when reported on scene (25 vs. 23%, respectively) and within 1 h of injury (35 vs. 32%, respectively) were similar.
Conclusions: Nationally, FARS data demonstrated that two thirds of all MVC deaths occurred within 1 h of injury. Over a third of prehospital MVC deaths were potentially preventable in our local sample. By examining injury patterns in PPDs, targeted intervention may be initiated. 相似文献
Urban forest ecosystems are complex and vulnerable social–ecological systems. The relationship between urban forests and housing is particularly variable and uncertain. We examine the influence of building renovation and rental housing on public trees at the parcel and street-section scale in a residential neighbourhood in Toronto, Canada. We use empirical data describing multiple tree inventories and government open data describing building permit applications to test for effects on urban forest structure, tree mortality, and tree planting. We found that the presence and number of building permits significantly predicted mortality at both scales, while planting was positively correlated with building permits at the street-section scale only. Multi-unit parcels had significantly lower rates of planting than single-unit parcels and multi-unit housing was positively correlated with mortality at the street-section scale. These findings suggest that where concentrated changes in housing stock are occurring, substantial losses of trees and associated ecosystem services are possible. 相似文献
We manipulated parental work load without changing brood size in a population of pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca by removing two primaries (7 and 9) from each wing of females, thus reducing wing area and increasing flight costs. At other
nests, we offered supplementary food in the form of live mealworms (10–20 g daily from hatching) to reduce brood demand and
thus parental foraging costs. Other nests were left as controls. The daily energy expenditure of females feeding 12-day-old
nestlings was measured with doubly labelled water D218O. Females in both treatments expended the same amount of energy, fed at the same rate and had similar body masses to birds
in the control group. No effect of treatment on male mass and feeding effort was detected. More nestlings, however, died in
nests of handicapped females. Nestlings of handicapped females had significantly lower body mass and haematocrit values than
nestlings in food-supplemented nests, with nestlings in control nests occupying an intermediate position. The effects of both
treatments on nestling mass, haematocrit values and mortality rates were only noticeable in nests infested with mites. Maternal
energy expenditure is apparently constrained and offspring pay the costs imposed by reduced provisioning rate or increased
demand caused by ectoparasites, while receiving benefits when food supply improves. The presumption that avian reproductive
costs derive from changes in a flexible energy output may not be met in many cases.
Received: 24 October 1998 / Received in revised form: 15 March 1999 / Accepted: 26 April 1999 相似文献
This paper assesses the cost-effectiveness of, and the return on the investment in, the 2002 catch-up and the 2003 follow-up measles campaigns in Afghanistan from the perspective of the donor. The catch-up campaign targeted nearly 12 million children aged between six months and 12 years, while the follow-up campaign targeted over five million children aged between 9 and 59 months. Both campaigns successfully vaccinated approximately 96 per cent of the respective target populations, and are expected to avert an estimated 301,000 measles deaths over the next 10 years. The average cost per dose of measles vaccine delivered was USD 0.40. The cost per death prevented is USD 23.6, assuming a case fatality rate of 10 per cent and a discount rate of three per cent. With more than 42,000 measles deaths avoided for every one million US dollars spent, the campaigns are an excellent public health investment for precluding childhood mortality in a country affected by a complex emergency. 相似文献
A good estimate of the design effect is critical for calculating the most efficient sample size for cluster surveys. We reviewed the design effects for seven nutrition and health outcomes from nine population-based cluster surveys conducted in emergency settings. Most of the design effects for outcomes in children, and one-half of the design effects for crude mortality, were below two. A reassessment of mortality data from Kosovo and Badghis, Afghanistan revealed that, given the same number of clusters, changing sample size had a relatively small impact on the precision of the estimate of mortality. We concluded that, in most surveys, assuming a design effect of 1.5 for acute malnutrition in children and two or less for crude mortality would produce a more efficient sample size. In addition, enhancing the sample size in cluster surveys without increasing the number of clusters may not result in substantial improvements in precision. 相似文献