基于可靠性理论的事件树分析方法研究

事件树分析过程中事件树的编制和分析方法缺乏系统性,导致实际运用中事件树的编制缺乏可操作性。从目标系统的选择、环节事件逻辑关系的确定、定量分析中基本数据的来源和确定方法等三个问题进行了系统研究,并以可靠性的相关理论为基础,提出"从控制和影响初始事件发展演化的角度,调查分析对初始事件做出响应的安全功能,按系统工作原理对目标系统进行重构,构建目标系统的功能结构图,画出系统的可靠性框图"入手,对"传统的事件树绘制程序"进行修正,解决了事件树分析过程中目标系统的选择、环节事件逻辑关系的确定以及定量分析基本数据的确定方法等问题。修正后的方案对实现事件树的正确编制和系统分析逻辑更清晰,操作指导性更强。     

贮罐类重大危险源三维风险分级模型研究

为了实现重大危险源分级监管,基于风险管理理论,建立贮罐类重大危险源定性三维分级模型和风险定量分级模型。提出风险评价敏感性因素,选取可能性影响因素、严重性影响因素、敏感性影响因素3类风险评价指标。使用层次分析法(AHP)计算贮罐风险分级指标权重。根据风险可接受准则,将贮罐类重大危险源风险等级划分为4级,实现基于三维风险模型的贮罐类重大危险源快速分级。结果表明:用贮罐类重大危险源三维风险分级模型,通过简单数学模型计算贮罐风险值,能为企业提供风险分级标准,有助于实现政府对贮罐类重大危险源分级监管。     

A dual-sensor-based method to recognize pipeline leakage and interference signals

During the detection of pipeline leakages, false alarms of leak detection could be markedly reduced if the interference signals resulting from pressure regulating, pump regulating or valve movements could be accurately distinguished. A digital recognition method for interference signals and leakage signals based on a dual-sensor system is proposed in this paper. It is demonstrated that the direction of the signal can be recognized by a cross-correlation calculation between two signals from the dual-sensor, one of which undergoes forward linear interpolation and backward linear interpolation. Based on this theory, the interference signal and the leak signal can be discriminated exactly, and the distance between the two sensors in the dual-sensor system can be considerably reduced without needing to increase the sampling frequency. The monotonicity of the cross-correlation function is demonstrated, and a fast discrimination algorithm based on a binary extreme search method, which decreases the computational load and maintains global optimization, is also proposed. A pre-processing method of the actual signal is proposed to decrease the identity requirement for the two sensors in a dual-sensor system. In the experiment based on artificial signals, the proposed discrimination algorithm could achieve accurate recognition of the abnormal signal, and as such, the theory and application of pipeline leak detection based on dual-sensor systems are extended.     

桂林市公共场所空气污染的检测与分析

采用甲醛检测仪、有机气体检测仪等测试分析了桂林市宾馆、商场、候车室、家具城、文化娱乐场等公共场所的甲醛和TVOC浓度。结果显示:候车室和文化娱乐场所的甲醛、TVOC合格率均为100%;宾馆、商场、家具城的TVOC合格率分别为98.7%、98.9%、95.0%,甲醛合格率分别为78.8%、91.1%、85.0%;皮革制品、家具板材等为主要的甲醛和TVOC污染源。     

Structure and Content of the Discourse on Climate Change in the Blogosphere: The Big Picture

Based on the texts of 1.3 million blog posts and the structure of the links between the blogs in which these posts appeared, this study presents an analysis of the discourse on climate change in the English-language blogosphere. Our approach combines community detection with probabilistic topic modeling to show how topics related to climate change are discussed across various parts of the blogosphere. We find that there is one community of predominantly climate skeptical blogs but several accepter communities. The topic analysis reveals a series of issues that are characteristic of the climate change discourse in the blogosphere. Two topics, one related to climate change science and one related to climate change politics, are particularly important for characterizing the discourse. We also find that the distribution of topics over the communities cuts across the divide between skeptics and non-skeptics (accepters) and that there are differences in the patterns of interactions between the skeptics and different groups of accepters.     

Review of the application of quantum dots in the heavy-metal detection

Heavy-metal contamination is a major concern, as excessive heavy metals produce environmental pollution, and the cumulative effects of heavy metals in vivo pose a major threat to human health. There is an urgent need for a rapid, sensitive, and efficient method for detecting heavy metals. Quantum dots (QDs) are in the category of semiconductor nanocrystals whose radii are less than or close to the exciton Bohr radius. QDs possess a potential in the biological and medical fields to function as a new type of fluorescent marker, because of their unique and tunable photophysical properties, which include broad excitation spectrum, narrow emission spectrum, tunable emission wavelengths, and negligible photobleaching. In recent years, QDs made significant progress in quantitative analysis by providing a new approach for determination of chemical content analysis. The aim of this study was to review the research progress of QD detection of heavy metals in water and consider the challenges and future outlook for QD-based sensors for heavy-metal ions.     

爆炸超压场景下危化品社会风险对允许规划人口密度的影响分析*

为研究危化品重大危险源基于社会风险基准的规划管控影响,采用我国标准规定的定量风险评价方法,TNT当量炸药简化方法,针对最大TNT当量炸药、事故发生总累计频率、人口密度分布控制参数等不同工况条件,对比分析国土开发强度的允许人口密度受社会风险约束影响的变化规律。研究结果表明:人口密度指数分布控制参数Nk与Nb的允许取值随最大TNT当量炸药和事故发生总累计频率降低而提高;确定工况下,允许总人口规模受最大TNT当量炸药影响很小;在最大TNT当量炸药大于100 t或事故发生总累计频率小于1×10-8次/a时可按最大事故场景进行规划控制分析。     

基于光纤分布式测温的污水管道入流识别方法研究

针对排水管网物探检测需断水操作和无法对管道内部实时探查的问题,建立了一种基于光纤分布式测温的污水管道入流诊断方法,实现了无干扰条件下污水管道污水和雨水入流实时监控.采用感温光缆对选择的试验管段开展了时空高精度观测(空间精度1m、时间精度1min),获得了超过118万个管道水温数据.基于解析出的管道水温时空图像,提出了基于水温温差背景噪声值的入流定位方法;确定出无外部入流影响时管道水温空间和时间温差的背景噪声值分别约为±0.2℃和±0.5℃.采用水温图像降噪处理方法,自动识别出污水管道的旱天污水接入和雨天雨水接入事件,与现场调查结果一致.因此,该方法对污水管道入流的动态识别定位具有可靠性.     

基于视频识别的直接作业环节安全管控

概述了石化行业现场直接作业环节的安全管控现状,分析了现场管控过程中存在的问题。考虑现场安全管理和监督监控的实际需要,设计了石化行业直接作业现场智能化管控系统,并深入研究作业现场违章行为图像识别的关键技术。现场应用表明,系统充分体现了日常管理、实时监控、智能报警、统计分析等方面的便利性和有效性,各类违章行为图像识别准确率达到80%以上,具有一定的推广价值。