机械系统的风险概率与经济性安全评价方法研究与应用

针对机械事故频发,为预防和控制事故,依据安全评价发展方向,结合安全系统工程、模糊可靠性理论、人因可靠性技术和安全经济学,从人-机-环3方面分析风险评价因素,建立符合客观实际的风险评价模型,提出包括人为因素、机械设备和环境在内的基本事件失效概率估算方法;以安全经济学的角度将事故严重度量化为风险经济损失,根据每个风险因素的风险概率和风险经济损失来选择风险评价项目,通过检查评价项目状况,最终得出系统风险度,从而形成关于机械系统的定量风险概率与经济性安全评价方法。并给出起重机大车运行机构的工程示例,验证该方法的正确性和可行性。     

重庆地下热水径流特征研究

重庆地下热水资源丰富,但对其径流特征缺乏研究,盲目开采致使许多温泉泉流量减小、水温降低,甚至断流、枯竭。为指导地下热水的科学开采,文章对重庆地下热水的常规化学组分及同位素组分特征进行了研究,分析了地下热水补给、径流条件,指出大气降水为其补给源,补给区在重庆以北大巴山及华莹山背斜华莹山和铜锣峡背斜北端的岩溶露头区,嘉陵江组(T1j)为其储水层,地下热水主要沿背斜T1j地层由北往南流,同一背斜地下热水由北到南为一个统一的热水系统。     

台风对我国农业的影响及防御对策

由于所处的独特和复杂的地理环境,我国是一个自然灾害多发的国家,其中台风灾害是主要的自然灾害之一。从台风对我国农业生产利弊的两方断进行了分析,在弊端方面,分析了从1950年至今台风造成的农作物受灾情况、引发的病虫害和导致的农田耕地污染;在有利方面,分析了台风带来的降水对旱情的缓解作用。最后,针对我国农业生产的特点以及台风自身的规律和特征,提出了“防御先行,防抗结合”的农业防台风策略。     

沿海防潮堤坝对风暴潮危害的减灾效益研究

风暴潮是海洋灾害中对人类造成损失最为严重的类型之一,海岸带地区防潮堤坝的修建对抵御风暴潮起到重要的作用。在综述国内外风暴潮研究的基础上,提出了沿海防潮堤坝对风暴潮的减灾效益的定量研究方法。以黄河三角洲9711号特大台风风暴潮为例,利用G IS技术模拟了无防潮堤坝情况下海岸带地区的受灾面积以及经济损失,并与实际灾害损失进行对比,得出防潮堤坝减少的风暴潮灾害经济损失为25.7亿元的结果,证实了兴建防潮工程的必要性。利用费用-效益法对防潮堤坝工程进行了成本与减灾效益评估,分析了防潮堤坝修建的经济合理性。     

基于SWAT模型的金属矿区雨水径流中锰污染负荷分析

通过改进林玉环的汞迁移转化一维模型,并在一定的基本假设下,得到了锰的一维迁移转化动力学模型,利用Fortran语言编程嵌入SWAT模型源程序,在参数敏感性分析后进行改进模型的率定与校正以及敏感性参数的调节分析后,得到金属矿区雨水径流中锰污染负荷分析的SWAT改进模型。运行结果表明,SWAT改进模型能够对雨水径流中锰污染负荷进行较高精度的模拟,其中回归系数(r2)、Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(Ens)分别为0.88、0.91,符合回归系数和Nash-Sutcliffe系数的评价标准(r2≥0.6,Ens≥0.5),获得锰矿区的污染关键区,与实际矿区污染相符合,为锰矿区及其他金属矿区雨水径流中重金属污染的评测和控制、治理与修复等提供科学依据。     

Continental‐Scale River Flow Modeling of the Mississippi River Basin Using High‐Resolution NHDPlus Dataset

As a key component of the National Flood Interoperability Experiment (NFIE), this article presents the continental scale river flow modeling of the Mississippi River Basin (MRB), using high‐resolution river data from NHDPlus. The Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) was applied to the MRB with more than 1.2 million river reaches for a 10‐year study (2005‐2014). Runoff data from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was used as input to RAPID. This article investigates the effect of topography on RAPID performance, the differences between the VIC‐RAPID streamflow simulations in the HUC‐2 regions of the MRB, and the impact of major dams on the streamflow simulations. The model performance improved when initial parameter values, especially the Muskingum K parameter, were estimated by taking topography into account. The statistical summary indicates the RAPID model performs better in the Ohio and Tennessee Regions and the Upper and Lower Mississippi River Regions in comparison to the western part of the MRB, due to the better performance of the VIC model. The model accuracy also increases when lakes and reservoirs are considered in the modeling framework. In general, results show the VIC‐RAPID streamflow simulation is satisfactory at the continental scale of the MRB.     

Effects of Impervious Area and BMP Implementation and Design on Storm Runoff and Water Quality in Eight Small Watersheds

The effects of increases in effective impervious area (EIA) and the implementation of water quality protection designed detention pond best management practices (BMPs) on storm runoff and stormwater quality were assessed in Gwinnett County, Georgia, for the period 2001‐2008. Trends among eight small watersheds were compared, using a time trend study design. Significant trends were detected in three storm hydrologic metrics and in five water quality constituents that were adjusted for variability in storm characteristics and climate. Trends in EIA ranged from 0.10 to 1.35, and changes in EIA treated by BMPs ranged from 0.19 to 1.32; both expressed in units of percentage of drainage area per year. Trend relations indicated that for every 1% increase in watershed EIA, about 2.6, 1.1, and 1.5% increases in EIA treated by BMPs would be required to counteract the effects of EIA added to the watersheds on peak streamflow, stormwater yield, and storm streamflow runoff, respectively. Relations between trends in EIA, BMP implementation, and water quality were counterintuitive. This may be the result of (1) changes in constituent inputs in the watersheds, especially downstream of areas treated by BMPs; (2) BMPs may have increased the duration of stormflow that results in downstream channel erosion; and/or (3) spurious relationships between increases in EIA, BMP implementation, and constituent inputs with development rates.     

基于TRMM卫星资料揭示的长江流域梅雨季节降水日变化

利用1998~2013年热带测雨卫星TRMM 3B42降水率资料以及NCEP/CFSR温度场、气压场和风场等再分析格点资料等,从气候学角度揭示了长江流域梅雨季节降水和对流的日变化特征,探讨了典型和非典型梅雨锋年降水日变化差异,分析了大气环境场要素的日变化特征及其对降水和对流日变化影响。结果表明:(1)强降水在夜间发生在长江上游,白天发生在长江中下游。降水日变化特征显著,长江上游、盆地以东的中游以及中下游的沿江以南地区降水日峰值分别出现在午夜、清晨08时以及傍晚17时。沿江以北地区降水表现出半日循环,具有08时和17时两个峰值,午后峰值明显强于清晨。(2)长江中游地区降水日位相较上游地区延迟约6 h,下游地区日位相进一步向后推移,同时下游地区降水强度和范围明显强于上游,降水日较差也更明显。(3)典型梅雨锋年和近15年梅雨季节平均的降水日变化分布特征较为一致,非典型梅雨锋年较前两者日峰值出现时间明显提前。(4)短时强降水和深对流有较好的对应关系,白天高发区位于长江下游,夜间位于上游。(5)大气温压场在梅雨锋两侧显著的日变化差异使梅雨锋强度和结构在昼夜形成了差异,并使低层风场的辐合位置产生了日变化,这些大气环境场的日变化最终导致了梅雨期对流和降水的日变化。     

Food loss rates at the food retail,influencing factors and reasons as a basis for waste prevention measures

This paper quantifies food loss rates for fruit & vegetables, dairy products and bread & pastry as well as donations to social services. In addition potential influencing factors and reasons for food losses are investigated in order to provide a basis for the development of waste prevention measures. Detailed data from 612 retail outlets all over Austria, which covered the period of one year, were analysed and sorting analyses of discarded food were carried out in a small sample of retail outlets. Food loss amounts to 1.3% of the sales of dairy products, 2.8% for bread & pastry and 4.2% for fruit & vegetables. Returned bread amounts to additional 9.7% of the sales of bread & pastry. The food loss rates are similar to the results of previous publications. At present, 7% of the food loss is donated to social services, 38% of retail outlets do not donate any articles at all. Food loss rates are declining with increasing sales areas, increasing numbers of purchases per year and increasing sales of the retail outlet, but explain only 33% or less of the variation of food loss rates. Large differences between retail outlets of comparable structure indicate potential for reduction. More than a quarter of discarded food articles did not show any flaws besides the expiration of the best before or sell-by date. Waste prevention approaches should focus on avoiding returns, transfer of best practices, information and education of employees and customers as well as strengthening the donation to social services.     

施工扬尘环境下短时强降雨屋面径流中砷、汞、铅、镉、锌的污染特征研究

以南京北郊为例,测量分析了屋面径流中砷(As)、汞(Hg)、铅(Pb)、镉(Cd)和锌(Zn)5种元素的浓度、形态特征。结果表明:短时强降雨过程中这5种元素浓度在较大范围内无规则波动,且不同元素间浓度分布存在较大差异;Zn与Pb的平均浓度分别高于《地表水环境质量标准》(GB 3838—2002)的Ⅴ类和Ⅳ类标准限值,污染程度从大到小依次为ZnPbAsHgCd。元素形态分析表明,径流中除Hg外其他4种元素主要以颗粒态形式存在,各元素颗粒态占总形态的平均分数分别为:As,64.5%;Hg,43.7%;Pb,76.5%;Cd,54.6%;Zn,54.3%。