中国工业碳排放达峰的情景预测与减排潜力评估

实现2030年碳排放达峰不仅是中国为应对全球气候变化向国际社会做出的郑重承诺,也是中国未来经济结构转型与可持续发展的必然选择。基于中国实现2030年碳排放达到峰值的宏观目标为背景,本文以中国碳排放的主要行业工业为研究对象,首先运用拓展的STIRPAT模型对工业及其9个细分行业的碳排放达峰进行了情景预测,然后基于公平和效率的双重视角对工业细分行业的减排潜力进行评估。研究表明:(1)仅有低碳情景和抑制排放情景2可以实现中国碳排放2030年达峰,低碳情景是实现中国工业碳排放达峰的最佳发展模式,达峰时间最早(2030年),峰值最低(140.43亿t)。激进排放情景则是最差的发展模式,达峰时间最晚(2036年),峰值也最高(150.09亿t)。(2)工业内部各细分行业碳排放的最优达峰情景差别较大。建材和纺织制造业能够实现提前达峰,可以在这类行业率先实施达峰管理措施,使其带动其他行业陆续达峰。(3)最具减排潜力的行业是石油制造业,其次是电力行业,这些减排潜力较大的行业应该成为国家节能减排的重点对象。(4)基于工业各细分行业在减排公平性和效率性上的差异将工业9个细分行业分为四类。其中,石油、钢铁制造业和电力行业属于"高效高公平行业";化工、建材制造业属于"低效高公平行业";采掘业属于"高效不公平行业";纺织、轻工和机电制造业属于"低效不公平行业"。中国应针对不同类型的行业制定出相应的减排战略,将减排重点放在各行业最具潜力的方面。最后,文章对实现中国工业碳排放达峰管理提出了几点政策建议。     

中国工业CO_2排放的行业间传导网络及协同减排

工业是碳排放的主要部门,科学识别工业CO_2排放的行业间传导并揭示其联动结构对于跨行业协同减排具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文基于1991-2012年中国工业36个两位数行业数据,在VAR模型框架下,利用Granger因果检验方法对CO_2排放的行业间传导关系进行了识别,并从关系视角出发,借助社会网络分析方法(SNA)揭示工业CO_2排放行业间传导的整体和个体网络结构特征,研究发现:工业CO_2排放的行业间传导呈网络结构形态,网络密度在1-6期的滞后阶数下呈先升高后下降的趋势,并且在滞后2期达到最高;燃气生产和供应业、电力热力生产和供应业、服装业、造纸及纸制品业、木材加工业具有较高的度数中心度、中介中心度、接近中心度,在网络中处于核心位置,并发挥中介和桥梁作用;在CO_2排放的行业传导网络中,煤炭采选业、黑色金属矿采选业、有色金属矿采选业等10个行业属于经纪人板块,医药制造业、饮料制造业、化学纤维制造业等9个行业属于净受益板块,金属制品业、塑料制品业、农副食品加工业等11个行业属于双向溢出板块,烟草加工业、石油加工及炼焦业、燃气生产和供应业等6个行业属于净溢出板块。基于上述结论,本文提出了工业CO_2排放的跨行业协同减排思路。     

Prediction of future disposal of end-of-life refrigerators containing CFC-11

The objective of this study was to predict the number of refrigerators containing CFC-11 blown isolation foam and the amount of CFC-11 banked in these refrigerators. By using a Weibull-based survival function, the number of CFC-11 containing and still-functioning refrigerators was estimated to be approximately 1.6 million in 2013 in Turkey. In order to determine the amount of CFC-11 in the isolation foam of these refrigerators, polyurethane (PU) foam samples were taken from a refrigerator manufactured in 1993 and the quantity of CFC-11 was analyzed by a GC-MS. It was determined that 113–195 mg CFC-11/g PU remains in the PU foam depending on the location such as door, sides, top and bottom. Knowing that a mid-sized refrigerator contains 4 kg PU on average, the total amount of PU foam to be disposed of is 6344 tons when the CFC-11 containing refrigerators in Turkey become obsolete in the near future. Furthermore, 717–1237 tons of CFC-11 are expected to be banked in the PU foam of these refrigerators which will exert an equivalent amount of ozone depleting potential (ODP). In addition, the global warming potential will vary between 3.4 and 5.9 million tons of CO₂.     

Reduction of Baltic Sea Nutrient Inputs and Allocation of Abatement Costs Within the Baltic Sea Catchment

The Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) requires tools to simulate effects and costs of various nutrient abatement strategies. Hierarchically connected databases and models of the entire catchment have been created to allow decision makers to view scenarios via the decision support system NEST. Increased intensity in agriculture in transient countries would result in increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, particularly from Poland, the Baltic States, and Russia. Nutrient retentions are high, which means that the nutrient reduction goals of 135 000 tons N and 15 000 tons P, as formulated in the BSAP from 2007, correspond to a reduction in nutrient loadings to watersheds by 675 000 tons N and 158 000 tons P. A cost-minimization model was used to allocate nutrient reductions to measures and countries where the costs for reducing loads are low. The minimum annual cost to meet BSAP basin targets is estimated to 4.7 billion €.     

常州市臭氧污染传输路径和潜在源区

利用NCEP全球再分析资料和HYSPLIT4模式,计算了2013—2015年常州市臭氧(O_3)超标日的气流后向轨迹。结合聚类分析方法和常州市PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2、O_3数据,分析了O_3超标日不同类型气团来源对各污染物浓度的影响,并利用引入权重因子后的潜在污染源贡献函数分析了影响常州市O_3超标的潜在污染源区分布特征。结果表明:常州市O_3超标期间易受到东南和西南方向气流影响,其中从东海和黄海途经浙江东北部、上海、江苏南部等地的东南气流占比达50%以上。自内陆途经黄山-湖州-宜兴到常州的气流对应的O_3平均质量浓度最高,为116μg/m3。自山东经枣庄-宿迁-淮安-泰州-苏州-无锡到常州的气流对应的O_3平均质量浓度最低,为78μg/m3,但该气流对应的SO2和NO2平均值为各聚类中的最高。影响常州市O_3的潜在污染源区主要在常州周边200 km以内的区域,且集中在从南京至上海的长江下游沿线区域和杭州湾区域;其中太湖湖区为重点污染源源区之一。O_3超标日影响常州NO2的潜在污染源区主要集中在江苏南部、浙江东北部和上海3个区域,太湖周边的常州、无锡、苏州和湖州等几个临近城市为潜在的重点污染源区。与影响常州O_3的WPSCF高值区相比,影响NO2的高值区分布范围更大、距离更远。影响常州O_3的潜在污染源区分布,与长江三角洲地区人为源大气污染物的高排放区域较为一致,说明长江三角洲地区的O_3污染与本区域的人为源大气污染物排放有着极为密切的关联。     

Mg3MnxAl1-xCO3类水滑石衍生NSR催化剂的制备及其性能评价

采用共沉淀法合成了三元类水滑石Mg_3Mn_xAl_(1-x)CO_3,通过高温煅烧得到其衍生氧化物Mg_3Mn_xAl_(1-x)O_m,再经浸渍负载Pt或BaO后制得新型NO_x存储/再还原(NSR)催化剂。XRD及SEM表征结果显示,当Mn与Al的摩尔比(Mn/Al)大于1时所制备的Mg_3Mn_xAl_(1-x)O_m有杂晶相出现且发生团聚,结合NO_x存储性能评价结果,确定最优Mn/Al为1。BaO负载不利于NO_x的存储,而当Pt负载量为1%(w)时NO_x存储性能最优,250℃条件下的存储量由负载前的0.52 mmol/g提升至0.61 mmol/g。CO_2与NO_x之间存在较强的竞争吸附。负载1%Pt催化剂的NSR性能评价结果表明,8个稀燃-富燃循环后NO_x的去除率为68%,表明催化剂的还原性能仍需加强。     

浅谈爆破振动的控制措施

结合爆破振动的作用机理,分别对减少振源爆炸能量、干扰降振、阻断振动波传播途径、控制爆破规模、合理选择分段间隔时间等爆破振动主要控制措施进行了分析讨论。并根据实际施工情况分析了通过电子雷管实现干扰降振的减振效果,为类似工程提供借鉴作用。     

大型碳化硅生产园区面源源强及减排指标核算

以某年产25万吨大型碳化硅园区无组织排放面源为例,提出基于多个地面站气象数据的CALPUFF模型地面浓度反推方法,优化流场模拟,使得无组织面源源强核算结果更加准确,并以环境保护目标空气质量达标为原则,核算其大气污染物减排指标,得出具体结论:园区大气污染物SO2、NOX、CO、PM10年排放量分别为449.06t、86.98t、5158.58t、115.06t;无组织排放SO2、CO及PM10的减排比例分别为63.5%、19.2%、42.44%,对应减排量分别为285.16 t/a、990.45 t/a、48.83 t/a。     

桂林市城区大气VOCs污染特征及对O3和SOA的生成潜势

对桂林市城区大气中挥发性有机物(VOCs)的污染特征,以及VOCs对臭氧(O3)和二次有机气溶胶(SOA)的生成潜势进行了研究。结果显示,研究期间,共检出VOCs物种78种,平均体积分数为21.32×10-9,表现为芳香烃(67.82%)烷烃(19.56%)卤代烃(7.50%)烯烃(2.86%)含氧挥发性有机物(1.41%)。VOCs体积分数空间分布呈现市中心和下风向郊区两个高值区。通过苯与甲苯的浓度比值发现,林科所VOCs主要来自交通源和生物源,师专甲山校区VOCs主要是来自交通源,其余测点VOCs主要来自交通源、工业源和外来传输源。分析乙苯和间/对二甲苯的浓度比值发现,电子科大尧山校区气团光化学年龄较大,光化学反应活性相对较强烈;旅游学院、华侨旅游经开区、大埠中心校气团光化学年龄较小,光化学反应活性相对较弱。VOCs对O3生成潜势最大的为芳香烃(93.81%),其次是烷烃(7.22%)和烯烃(4.75%);对SOA生成潜势最大的为芳香烃(97.45%),其次是烷烃(2.55%)。     

What happened to the Second World? Earthquakes and postsocialism in Kazakhstan

There is an assumption that with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Second World ceased to exist. Yet the demise of the Communist bloc as a geopolitical reality did not mean that it stopped exerting a defining influence over how people think and behave. This article examines how the postsocialist state in Kazakhstan deals with potential crises such as earthquakes and the extent to which the Soviet legacy still shapes intellectual debates, state structures, and civil society organisations in in that country. Drawing on fieldwork and interviews, this paper re-examines the Second World in its historical context and re-establishes it as a conceptual framework for considering disaster risk reduction in the former Soviet bloc. It argues that it is essential to pay attention to this legacy in Kazakhstan both in policy and practice if earthquake risk reduction is to be made more effective.