Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR KARST AQUIFERS: (2) SOLUTE-TRANSPORT MODELING

Ground-water flow and solute-transport simulation modeling are major components of most exposure and risk assessments of contaminated aquifers. Model simulations provide information on the spatial and temporal distributions of contaminants in subsurface media but are difficult to apply to karst aquifers in which conduit flow is important. Ground-water flow and solute transport in karst conduits typically display rapid-flow velocities, turbulent-flow regimes, concentrated pollutant-mass discharge, and exhibit open-channel or closed-conduit flow. Conventional ground-water models, dependent on the applicability of Darcy`s law, are inappropriate when applied to karst aquifers because of the (1) nonapplicability of Darcian-flow parameters, (2) typically nonlaminar flow regime, and (3) inability to locate the karst conduits through which most flow and contaminant transport occurs. Surface-water flow and solute-transport models conditioned on a set of parameters determined empirically from quantitative ground-water tracing studies may be effectively used to render fate-and-transport values of contaminants in karst conduits. Hydraulic-flow and geometric parameters developed in a companion paper were used in the surface-water model, TOXI5, to simulate hypothetical slug and continuous-source releases of ethylbenzene in a karst conduit. TOXI5 simulation results showed considerable improvement for predicted ethylbenzene-transport rates and concentrations over qualitative tracing and analytical ground-water model results. Ethylbenzene concentrations predicted by TOXI5 simulations were evaluated in exposure and risk assessment models.     

绵阳市环境放射源分布规律

对绵阳市的环境放射源基本情况进行了分析，弄清了放射源的品种、数量。摸索出放射性核素及Ｘ射线装置在地域、行业和剂量方面的分布规律，揭示出环境放射性管理工作的重点。     

太湖梅梁湾水源水中微囊藻毒素浓度的变化

对太湖梅梁湾水源水中的总藻毒素TMC[(TMC-LR) (TMC-RR)]和胞外藻毒素EMC[(EMC-LR) (EMC-RR)]进行了跟踪检测.结果表明,水体中TMC-RR、TMC-LR、EMC-RR、EMC-LR质量浓度平均分别为1.819 μg/L、1.090 μg/L、0.491 μg/L和0.077 μg/L,无锡市的主要水源地水质已受到微囊藻毒素的污染.提出,应加强水源地水体中微囊藻毒素浓度的监测,确保饮用水的安全.     

苏南地区农村河塘底泥中重金属污染调查与评价

对苏南地区农村河塘底泥中重金属的污染物状况及分布特征进行了调查,分别在镇江、宜兴和常州采集了农村居民生活区、农田附近和养殖厂周围13个底泥样品,对底泥中的5种重金属Zn、Cu、Cd、Pb、Cr质量比进行了分析研究,并利用Hakason生态风险指数法评价了底泥中5种重金属对其所在水域的污染程度,对水域和周围环境造成的潜在风险影响.结果表明,苏南地区部分农村河塘底泥已受到轻度的重金属污染,部分采样点Cd、Cu和Zn已达到中度污染;不同类型底泥的重金属的污染程度趋势为:居民生活区＞养殖厂周围＞农田附近.     

徐州城市表层土壤中重金属的富积、分布特征与环境风险

研究了徐州城市表层土壤的21个样品中30种元素的富集与分布特征。结果表明,与我国土壤元素的背景值(算术平均值)相比,表层土壤中Zn、Cd、As、Hg、Sb、Sn、Ag等元素富集大;Fe、Se、Sc、Ba、Bi、Pb、Cu、Ni、Cr、Mn、Mo、Be、Ti、Al、Ga、Li、Co等元素的富集较小。污染元素的空间分布特征显示了Zn、Cu、Pb、Cd等元素主要与交通运输等扩散污染源相关,而元素As、Sb的空间分布主要与工业污染源(点源)有关。环境风险指数的计算结果表明,表层土壤中重金属污染具有较大的环境风险,其中属于中等环境风险级别以上的样品占近40%,而且高风险区域主要集中在钢铁厂和化机厂等工业区范围内。     

污染源监测报告有效期问题的探讨

环境监测是环境管理的基础性工作,污染源监测报告(数据)的有效性是保证环境执法严肃、公正的重要条件,也是是守法企业展示良好社会形象的基本保证。依照国家的相关规定,并结合行业技术规范的要求,探讨污染源监测报告的有效期问题,以利于相关各方严肃、科学、合理地使用污染源监测数据。     

monitoring bioaccumulation of contaminants in the belted kingfisher (ceryle alcyon)

The belted kingfisher (Ceryle alcyon), acommon piscivore in the eastern United States, hasbecome a common endpoint in ecological riskassessments (ERA) because of their high consumptionof potentially contaminated aquatic prey. Whilebioaccumulation data and biosurveys may be used tosupport conclusions of ERAs for kingfishers, thereare currently no published data on contaminantconcentrations in kingfishers. Additionally,methods available for collecting biological samples(e.g., feathers, eggs, food debris, etc.) fromkingfisher burrows can be detrimental to thereproductive success of the birds. We present amethod for obtaining samples from burrows during orfollowing the nesting season. The method wasapplied to kingfisher burrows on the Oak RidgeReservation (ORR) in eastern Tennessee. Feathers,eggshells, and nestlings were collected from burrows and analyzed. In addition, carcasses ofthree adult kingfishers found dead on the ORR wereanalyzed. Metals and radionuclides were accumulatedby both juvenile and adult birds. Body burdens ofcadmium, lead, and cesium-137 in adult birds were belowlevels associated with toxicity. Concentrations of selenium and mercury were observed at potentiallytoxic levels. Contaminants in eggshells andnestling feathers indicate exposure, however, thereis insufficient information to evaluate thetoxicological significance of this contamination.National Laboratory Oak Ridge National Laboratory is managed for the U.S. Department of Energy by Lockheed Martin Energy Research Corp. under contract DE-AC05-96OR22464     

Observation of atmospheric nitrous acid with DOAS in Beijing, China

Measurements of nitrous acid （HONO） and nitrogen dioxide （NO2） in Beijing City have been performed by means of a developed differential optical absorption spectroscopy （DOAS） system based on photodiode array （PDA）, during the autumn of 2004. HONO and NO2 were simultaneously identified by their characteristic absorption bands in the spectral region between 337 nm and 372 nm with high sensibility and time resolution. The concentrations of HONO exhibit obviously diurnal variation with a nocturnal maximum and a daytime minimum. The highest HONO value up to 11.8 μg/m^3 was observed during the night of 2/3 September. Possible sources of the observed HONO were discussed. Good correlation to NO2 indicates that NO2 is a main source component. The measurement also shows direct emission of HONO is an imnortant source in strongly polluted urban area.     

中国粮食产量不同风险类型的地理分布

论文以中国各省份、各地区历年粮食单产为基本资料,采用统计方法,以风险分析技术为核心,定义粮食产量风险评价指标。在此基础上采用迭代自组织动态聚类分析方法分别对全国地区级和省级粮食生产单元进行了减产风险要素分区和综合风险指数分区,分区的结果反映了粮食生产风险水平的区域分异与各地区孕灾环境、致灾因子性质和生产力水平有密切联系。