Inverse modeling to estimate LNAPL plume release timing

Methodologies are presented for dating releases of light nonaqueous phase liquids (LNAPLs) using an inverse modeling approach with simple analytical models. Models for LNAPL plume migration are presented to predict LNAPL plume velocity in the unsaturated and saturated zones as a function of basic soil and fluid properties. A relative mobility factor is introduced for LNAPL movement at the water table that depends primarily on the van Genuchten n parameter (related to the breadth of the soil pore size distribution) and the magnitude of water table fluctuations. Estimated LNAPL plume velocities compare reasonably with more rigorous numerical models, which may be used in cases where data availability warrant the greater effort entailed.Two methods of estimating release timing and its uncertainty are investigated. A direct estimation method is described that determines travel time for a single observed travel distance based on estimated soil and fluid properties. Release date uncertainty may be determined using the first order (FO) or Monte Carlo (MC) methods. The second method for estimating release date involves nonlinear parameter estimation utilizing distance vs. time measurements and other data.A case study is presented for a field site where independent estimates of release timing were obtained from a numerical modeling analysis. Release timing estimates based on direct inversion of the analytical timing model agree well with the numerical analysis. Results for a second field site indicate that release date confidence limits estimated by the FO method, assuming log-normally distributed travel times, are close to values determined by the MC method, which makes no assumption regarding the form of the travel time probability distribution.Results for a hypothetical problem indicate that LNAPL velocity and travel time may be accurately estimated if sufficient data on travel distance vs. time are available. Incorporating prior information on relevant soil and fluid properties into the objective function reduces the uncertainty in release date if prior estimates are accurate. However, biased prior estimates may lead to over- or underestimation of release date uncertainty. Simultaneous estimation of soil and fluid properties and release date is possible if prior information is available to condition the parameter estimates.     

地下水与优势结构面对库岸滑坡形成的联合效应——以龙羊峡近坝库岸滑坡为例

为了深入研究近坝库岸滑坡的形成机理,首先分析了区域地下水的溶蚀作用和动水压力作用,又运用综合评分法确定出了对滑坡形成有利的优势结构面,发现区域滑坡滑带的形成是地下水与优势结构面长期联合作用的结果。以龙羊峡滑坡为例,揭示了半成岩湖相地层中滑坡滑带独特的三段式结构特征,验证了地下水与优势结构面的联合效应对近坝库岸滑坡形成的控制作用。     

Insuring against earthquakes: simulating the cost‐effectiveness of disaster preparedness

Ex‐ante measures to improve risk preparedness for natural disasters are generally considered to be more effective than ex‐post measures. Nevertheless, most resources are allocated after an event in geographical areas that are vulnerable to natural disasters. This paper analyses the cost‐effectiveness of ex‐ante adaptation measures in the wake of earthquakes and provides an assessment of the future role of private and public agencies in disaster risk management. The study uses a simulation model approach to evaluate consumption losses after earthquakes under different scenarios of intervention. Particular attention is given to the role of activity diversification measures in enhancing disaster preparedness and the contributions of (targeted) microcredit and education programmes for reconstruction following a disaster. Whereas the former measures are far more cost‐effective, missing markets and perverse incentives tend to make ex‐post measures a preferred option, thus occasioning underinvestment in ex‐ante adaptation initiatives.     

Recognizing Indigenous peoples’ and local communities’ rights and agency in the post-2020 Biodiversity Agenda

The Convention on Biological Diversity is defining the goals that will frame future global biodiversity policy in a context of rapid biodiversity decline and under pressure to make transformative change. Drawing on the work of Indigenous and non-Indigenous scholars, we argue that transformative change requires the foregrounding of Indigenous peoples’ and local communities’ rights and agency in biodiversity policy. We support this argument with four key points. First, Indigenous peoples and local communities hold knowledge essential for setting realistic and effective biodiversity targets that simultaneously improve local livelihoods. Second, Indigenous peoples’ conceptualizations of nature sustain and manifest CBD’s 2050 vision of “Living in harmony with nature.” Third, Indigenous peoples’ and local communities’ participation in biodiversity policy contributes to the recognition of human and Indigenous peoples’ rights. And fourth, engagement in biodiversity policy is essential for Indigenous peoples and local communities to be able to exercise their recognized rights to territories and resources.     

轮班制度对于地铁司机疲劳的影响

立足于轮班工作模式,阐述轮班制度对司机疲劳产生与积累的影响。介绍疲劳指数方法和池田公式的理论基础及模型构架,基于北京地铁13号线现行轮班表,分别应用上述两种研究方法进行地铁轮班司机疲劳程度的分析。两种方法的评估结果显著相关,均说明13号线现行轮班表的制定会导致司机疲劳的产生,存在安全运营风险。应用上述方法可实现对司机疲劳程度的非接触式测量,避免对司机驾驶作业的干扰,同时为地铁运营公司的安全管理人员制定合理的轮班方案,建立全面、量化的动态管理措施,提高行车安全保障提供了科学依据。     

板料成形数值模拟的逆算法研究

依据理想形变理论 ,研究开发了冲压成形过程模拟的有限元逆算法 ,并考虑了成形中的压边力 ,拉延筋等工艺条件 ,实现了计算机程序。通过实例的计算表明此方法能够快速分析成形工件中的变形情况 ,可用于设计前期阶段评价零件的成形性能     

基于现场测试的斜拉桥有限元模型修正

由于多年使用,桥的结构材料等都已经发生变化,因此在研究桥的当前工作状态时,必须依照现场测试结果,将初始模型修正为符合现阶段实际情况的有限元模型。本文以黄河胜利大桥为工程背景,根据设计资料建立了该桥初始有限元模型,用ANSYS通用软件开发了索力修正程序,该程序通过调整拉索的初始应变和附加质量块,使模型索力与设计索力之间误差在5%以内。计算发现,有限元模型中的施工顺序对成桥状态有着很大影响,应通过单元生死技术进行施工模拟。本文以各级加载工况下挠度、索力的变化情况作为控制目标,最终建立了能够反映加载工况下挠度变化、索力变化的黄河胜利大桥基准有限元模型,为今后监测桥的索力变化情况进而了解整座桥的工作状态奠定了基础。     

Redesigning harvest strategies for sustainable fishery management in the face of extreme environmental variability

Short-lived, fast-growing species that contribute greatly to global capture fisheries are sensitive to fluctuations in the environment. Uncertainties in exact stock–environment relationships have meant that environmental variability and extremes have been difficult to integrate directly into fisheries management. We applied a management strategy evaluation approach for one of Australia's large prawn stocks to test the robustness of harvest control rules to environmental variability. The model ensemble included coupled environmental-population models and an alternative catchability scenario fitted to historical catch per unit effort data. We compared the efficacy of alternative management actions to conserve marine resources under a variable environment while accounting for fisher livelihoods. Model fits to catch per unit effort were reasonably good and similar across operating models (OMs). For models that were coupled to the environment, environmental parameters for El Niño years were estimated with good associated precision, and OM3 had a lower AIC score (77.61)  than the base model (OM1, 80.39), whereas OM2 (AIC 82.41) had a similar AIC score, suggesting the OMs were all plausible model alternatives. Our model testing resulted in a plausible subset of management options, and stakeholders selected a permanent closure of the first fishing season based on overall performance of this option; ability to reduce the risk of fishery closure and stock collapse; robustness to uncertainties; and ease of implementation. Our simulation approach enabled the selection of an optimal yet pragmatic solution for addressing economic and conservation objectives under a variable environment with extreme events.     

对环境监测与环境监理运作秩序的思考

阐述了环境监测与环境管理监理之间的关系，指出建立科学合理的环境监测与环境监理运作秩序，对充分发挥各自作用，推动整个环境保护工作向科学化，规范化，法制化是具有积极意义，结合实践，提出了建立环境监测与环境监理运作秩序的思路。     

地表水环境质量大数据分析技术路线探讨

简述了地表水环境质量大数据分析的概念和意义,探讨了基于因素识别、数据选择、数据收集、数据整理、关联分析、模型验证和结果应用流程的地表水环境质量大数据分析技术路线,列举了4种典型的应用示例。提出,应建立数据共享机制,建立大数据分析工作程序,开发大数据分析应用软件,培养大数据分析技术人才。