RURAL RESIDENTIAL WATER DEMAND: AN ECONOMETRIC AND SIMULATION ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: This study proposes that demand management through pricing policies can be used in conjunction with supply management to solve water supply problems. Economic principles are shown to apply to rural residential water use. A demand function for water was developed based on cross-sectional water use data collected in Kentucky. Price was found to be a significant determinant of the quantity of water demanded. A constant price elasticity of -0.92 was found. The demand function was used in a simulation analysis to determine reservoir capacity needed to supply water needs of a rural community. The simulation revealed that price can significantly affect required reservoir storage.     

TRANSIENT WATER QUALITY MODELING IN STREAMS1

ABSTRACT. A general planning model for simulation of water quality in streams and canals is formulated and verified. The model simulates the temporal and spatial variations in conservative and nonconservative constituents. The nitrogen cycle and its interaction with other nutrients and the dissolved oxygen resources of the stream are included. A fully implicit finite difference approximation is used to solve the mass transport equations describing variations in constituent concentrations throughout the stream systems. The model is applied to the Truckee River in northern California. Results indicate the applicability of the model for assessing the impact of alternative water quality management strategies on the stream system.     

Brushland fire-management policies: A cross-impact simulation of southern California

A cross-impact simulation computer language, UW-KSIM, is presented as a potentially useful technique for assessing the consequences of resource policies. Cross-impact simulation is used to estimate trends in a set of variables that result from interactions produced from hypothesized relationships among the members of the set. This technique is illustrated with an example that simulates the likely impacts of a 20-year rotation burn policy in southern California's brushland watersheds and that compares the results to a simulated representation of the observed effects of the fire-exclusion policy. Simulated losses under the fire-exclusion policy were up to 300% higher than those produced by the rotation burn policy. Similarly, the simulated average area burned per year was reduced from 5.6% of the study area under the fire-exclusion policy to 2% of the study area under the rotation burn policy. A corresponding reduction in simulated appropriations for fighting wildfires was also demonstrated.     

RELIABILITY OF THE DESIGN STORM CONCEPT IN EVALUATING RUNOFF PEAK FLOW1

A comparative study was undertaken to evaluate peak runoff flow rates using (1) a continuous series of actual rainfall events and (2) design storms. The ILLUDAS computer model was used to simulate runoff over a catchment within the city of Montreal, Canada. A ten-year period, five-minute increment rainfall data base was used to derive peak flow frequency curves. Two types of design storms were analyzed: one derived from intensity duration frequency curves (Chicago type), the other from averaging actual rainfall patterns (Huff type). Antecedent soil moisture conditions were considered in the analyses. It was found that the probability distribution of runoff peak flow was sensitive to the choice of design storm pattern and to the antecedent soil moisture condition. A symmetrical, Chicago-type design storm with antecedent dry soil moisture produced a flow frequency curve similar to the one obtained from a series of historical rainfall events.     

CONTINUOUS SIMULATION FOR WATER QUALITY PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a methodology for the evaluation of water quality plans analogous to procedures used in flood control planning, where flood damage frequency curves provide the basis for determining flood control benefits. The proposed method uses continuous water quality simulation to develop long term information from which water quality frequency curves can be obtained. This frequency information allows the evaluation of the impact of proposed water quality control plans taking into consideration the variable nature of the water resource. Using treatment costs and other economic indicators of water quality, the frequency information can be used to estimate the cost-effectiveness and economic efficiency of alternative plans. The method is demonstrated in a semi-hypothetical environment; real hydrologic and climatic characteristics are assigned to a hypothetical watershed configuration. Alternative management plans are simulated and analyzed for both physical and economic impacts. The advantages of continuous simulation and its use in water quality planning are explored.     

MODIFIED WATER QUANTITY RECEIVING MODEL FOR FLORIDA CONSERVATION AREAS1

ABSTRACT: The Conservation Areas in South Florida have been considered as one of the major water storage areas to provide a water supply for the Everglades National Park and Lower East Coast (LEC). Due to the increasing water demands of the area, additional backpumping of the surplus runoff from the LEC area into the Conservation Areas has been considered as one of several alternative plans. The Receiving Water Quantity (EPA, 1971) model has been adapted and modified to be applicable in the Conservation Areas to investigate the possible impact of additional inflow under various backpumping cases. The modification of the model included Manning's roughness coefficient, depth of flow, width of hypothetical channels through marsh areas, rainfall input, seepage rate, etc. The use of the Monte Carlo technique for area computations was found to be easy and time saving both in area and weighting rainfall input to each node. Comparison of results generated by this modified model with the recorded values in Conservation Areas 1 and 2A indicated that the model not only can be a very good evaluation tool to simulate the hydraulic regime of the Conservation Areas system but also a proper tool for investigating the impact of additional inflow resulting from the backpumping related to the water use planning and management.     

MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF VEGETATIVE IMPACTS FROM FLUCTUATING FLOOD POOLS1

ABSTRACT: A flood control reservoir protects valuable developments on the downstream flood plain by storing flood waters and releasing them at a rate that will reduce the downstream damage. The water surface level of the flood pool behind the dam can fluctuate considerably during the occurrence of a large magnitude flood causing severe impacts on shoreline vegetation and water based recreation facilities located in the flood pool. A mathematical simulation model describing shoreline vegetative succession in response to flooding is presented. Plant species are grouped into ecologically similar compartments. Differential equations describing compartment intrinsic growth, intraspecies competition, interspecies competition, and other growth limiting factors are solved numerically. The model is used to evaluate the impacts of various operating policies on plant succession for a new reservoir in Central Iowa.     

SIMULATION – A TOOL FOR WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Proper economic evaluation of alternative plans will maximize the utility achieved from the resources available for water resource management. A knowledge of the frequency of occurrence of the events under study is necessary to fully utilize the advantages of economic evaluation in planning. Frequency information is widely used in flood control and water supply, but relatively unknown in water quality planning. A continuous, dynamic hydrologic and water quality model is presented to develop frequency curves for various water quality criteria. Results from the Denver Regional Water Quality Management Study are discussed as an example of the use of frequency analysis for economic evaluation of water quality management.     

SEQUENTIAL GENERATION OF STREAMFLOW1

ABSTRACT: An auto-regressive model has been developed for hydrologic data simulation. The model is computationally easier, parsimonious in number of model parameters and more stable in statistical characteristics than the existing auto-regressive model. The proposed model was used for synthesizing 10 sequences, each of 100 year length, of monthly flows for the river Beas. The statistical parameters were calculated using 49-year historical record for the river. The data was also synthesized using existing auot-regressive model. The synthesized sequences have been compared. The results indicate that the proposed model is as good as the existing auto-regressive model in preserving the mean and standard deviation of historical record. It is further shown that the proposed model requires less parameters than the auto-regressive model for simulation of long-term dependence.