环境因素对供应链中生产者食品安全行为的影响机制仿真分析

通过食品安全环境因素的改善和规范,来提高食品安全效果是具有现实意义的。本文归纳了影响食品安全的环境因素,特别是影响生产者食品安全行为的环境因素;环境因素对供应链食品安全的影响主要体现在生产者食品安全行为的选择上,为此,设计了环境因素对供应链生产者食品安全行为影响机制;为了分析环境因素对供应链中生产者食品安全的影响,从生产者食品安全行为的影响机制中选取了消费者食品安全意愿、生产者市场占有率、罚款金额等环境因素,以生鲜蔬果供应链中覆盖流通领域的那个部分提出了生产者食品安全行为选择策略的仿真模型,使用Netlogo软件进行了多主体仿真。通过仿真发现,食品监管的手法还宜细化,提升技术因素可以有效改善中国的食品安全水平。     

有风条件下剧院火灾自然排烟效果分析

为研究某剧院休息厅的自然排烟效果的问题,根据建筑特征设计6个火灾场景。运用理论计算和数值模拟的方法,分别研究不同开窗位置、开窗面积以及环境风速对火灾时的热流场和烟气蔓延的影响。结果表明：不同开窗位置达到临界值的时间为顶窗〉东西立面侧窗〉北立面侧窗;有风条件下3.5%的开窗面积的排烟效果和无风时6%的开窗面积的排烟效果相当。结论是考虑当地环境风速,选择顶部5%和东西侧3.5%开窗方式,增强该剧院的自然排烟效果。     

大空间建筑烟气填充研究方法的对比

为了对大空间建筑烟气填充研究方法进行对比分析。以一个废弃的大空间仓库为研究对象,采用了全尺寸火灾实验、计算机数值模拟和理论分析相互应用验证的研究方法,研究理论及数值模拟两种火灾烟气层高度的描述方法的准确性。结果表明当采用t2火模型时,在与现实的吻合程度方面,数值模拟〉Zukoski理论模型〉Yamana-Tanaka理论模型;随着火灾的不断发展,相对误差逐渐增大。通过对比分析发现,全尺寸实验、理论模型和数值模拟三种方法相互验证可以更好地保证研究的准确性;总结得到了两种与现实较吻合的描述烟气层高度的理论方法,并且提出减小误差应注意的几点事项,包括尽可能提高火源热释放速率、烟气层温度描述的准确性;不考虑火源热量通过建筑边界结构散失等。     

地铁换乘车站客流疏运模拟及风险分析（2）——单通道换乘车站

为了研究通道换乘地铁车站的客流疏运过程及风险点,文章针对某单通道换乘车站,通过对车站通道和客流分析,提出了优化的客流流线;并基于智能个体和矢量空间模拟技术,建立了地铁换乘车站的疏运模型,模拟了高峰时间段内的客流疏运过程。数值模拟结果显示了交叉客流、拥堵发生位置及原因,辨识了高风险位置,并提出了整改措施。文章提出的模拟方法和结论可为国内外类似车站制定客流组织方案及通道设计提供参考。     

比较FDS和FLUENT在池火灾模拟中的应用

热辐射是池火灾燃烧的主要危害之一,可能导致人员伤亡或设备设施损坏。油罐火灾是典型的池火灾。本文通过对无风情况下油罐火灾火焰形状进行理论模型分析,建立了各自的物理模型和几何模型。应用计算流体动力学软件Fluent和火灾动力学模拟软件FDS,对无风情况下池火灾对周围大气环境的热辐射强度进行模拟,得到了火焰周围入射热流密度分布图,运用软件Statistica拟合得出热辐射强度与距离火焰中心的水平距离的对应关系,分别计算出轻伤半径区域下的最小安全距离。数值模型模拟结果与池火灾经验模型进行比较,发现FDS辐射强度结果与经验模型结果吻合较好。分析了利用这两种模型模拟油罐火灾各自的优点和缺点,最后提出了运用FDS软件模型模拟油罐火灾时的优势。     

改造现有工艺回收地面计量天然气

为解决牙哈作业区A区块3口井在见水后含水上升较快、单井产液量增加、现有装置处理能力不足,导致A区块所有生产井不能全部进站的问题,同时为提高最终采收率,需要延长见水时间,见水后控制含水的上升趋势。这就要求掌握含水井的生产动态,而现有装置无法对单井的含水进行计量,塔里木油田公司牙哈作业区A区块建造集中试采装置,文章介绍了改造前后的工艺流程及改造效果。     

滤筒法测定水中悬浮物的实践

采用重量法用滤筒替代滤膜进行测定水中悬浮物的比对实验,实验结果表明:滤筒测定水中悬浮物比滤膜测定水中悬浮物更具有易恒重、测定误差小、准确度高、快速、简便、成本低等优点,适合水质监测应用。     

不同土地利用方式土壤表层氮、磷流失特征研究

利用室内人工模拟降雨,选择徐州沛沿河流域3种典型土地利用类型,研究了不同土地利用下土壤表层N、P随降雨径流的迁移过程.研究结果表明,在相同降雨条件下,3种土地产流量大小顺序为稻田地〉林地〉果园,产泥沙量大小顺序为果园〉稻田地〉林地.降雨径流水相中TN、TP浓度呈现随降雨时间的持续显著下降,然后逐渐稳定的趋势,氮磷的流失...     

Numerical simulation for impacts of hydrodynamic conditions on algae growth in Chongqing Section of Jialing River, China

Hydrodynamic conditions are important factors for planktonic algae growth, through introducing two parameters which express the optimal velocity and the velocity range for planktonic algae growth, a new velocity factor was put forward for the formula of growth rate. Therefore, the two-dimensional unsteady ecological dynamic model for algae growth was established to analyze the effects of hydrodynamic conditions on algae growth in Chongqing Reach of Jialing River in China. The temporal and spatial distribution of Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration was simulated numerically for various water levels, under climate conditions in period of high frequency for algae blooms of Three Gorges Reservoir and nutrition status at present in the research reach. The corresponding locations and areas of likely algae blooms were analyzed and forecasted. The results showed that about 0.04 m s⁻¹ was the optimal velocity for algae growth, and the occurrence of algae blooms in large scale is almost impossible because of relatively high water flow velocity for Jialing River.     

Simulation and analysis of outbreaks of bark beetle infestations and their management at the stand level

Outbreaks of bark beetles in forests can result in substantial economic losses. Understanding the factors that influence the development and spread of bark beetle outbreaks is crucial for forest management and for predicting outbreak risks, especially with the expected global warming. Although much research has been done on the ecology and phenology of bark beetles, the complex interplay between beetles, host trees, beetle antagonists and forest management makes predicting beetle population development especially difficult. Using the recent infestations of the European Spruce Bark Beetle (Ips typographus L. Col. Scol.) in the Bavarian Forest National Park (Germany) as a case study, we developed a spatially explicit agent-based simulation model (SAMBIA) that takes into account individual trees and beetles. This model primarily provides a tool for analysing and understanding the spatial and temporal aspects of bark beetles outbreaks at the stand scale. Furthermore, the model should allow an estimation of the effectiveness of concurrent impacts of both antagonists and management to confine outbreak dynamics in practice. We also used the model to predict outbreak probabilities in various settings. The simulation results indicated a distinct threshold behaviour of the system in response to pressure by antagonists or management of the bark beetle population. Despite the different scenarios considered, we were able to extract from the simulations a simple rule of thumb for the successful control of an outbreak: if roughly 80% of individual beetles are killed by antagonists or foresters, outbreaks will rarely take place. Our model allows the core dynamics of this complex system to be reduced to this inherent common denominator.