台风湍流积分尺度与脉动风速谱——基于实测数据的分析

基于4个台风过程中的长时间序列风速、风方向观测数据，分析研究了近地台风的湍流积分尺度和脉动风速谱等脉动特性。介绍了湍流积分尺度的几种常见的计算方法，基于实测台风数据，分析研究了台风过程中湍流积分尺度的变化以及不同计算方法的稳定性。根据实测数据计算了纵向脉动风速谱，并与Von-Karman谱、Davenport谱、Simiu谱和Harris谱等经验谱进行了比较，给出了最适合描述台风纵向脉动风速谱的经验谱。还计算了横向脉动风速功率谱，并与基于各向同性湍流理论推导出的水平横向脉动风速谱进行了对比。     

EFFECTS OF WATERSHED REPRESENTATION ON RUNOFF AND SEDIMENT YIELD MODELING1

ABSTRACT: This paper evaluates the effects of watershed geometric representation (i.e., plane and channel representation) on runoff and sediment yield simulations in a semiarid rangeland watershed. A process based, spatially distributed runoff erosion model (KINEROS2) was used to explore four spatial representations of a 4.4 ha experimental watershed. The most complex representation included all 96 channel elements identifiable in the field. The least complex representation contained only five channel elements. It was concluded that oversimplified watershed representations greatly influence runoff and sediment yield simulations by inducing excessive infiltration on hillslopes and distorting runoff patterns and sediment fluxes. Runoff and sediment yield decrease systematically with decreasing complexity in watershed representation. However, less complex representations had less impact on runoff and sediment‐yield simulations for small rainfall events. This study concludes that the selection of the appropriate level of watershed representation can have important theoretical and practical implications on runoff and sediment yield modeling in semiarid environments.     

小城镇地震数字仿真与应急调度系统的研究

以地理信息系统为平台进行地震灾害研究,建立具有强大空间分析功能的信息系统,将发挥快速、准确的辅助决策作用.本文剖析了小城镇地震应急反应模式存在的弊端,明确了灾害空间的概念,并提出小城镇空间数据库的建库及三维可视化的技术方案.在基础信息数字化和可视化的基础上,开发了小城镇地震数字仿真与应急调度系统,实现了基于地震数字仿真结果,在相关数据库支持下进行地震应急调度决策.实践证明:该系统的运行,有利于小城镇抗震减灾的迅速决策;小城镇空间数据库的建库技术,贴合我国小城镇信息化的现状,技术可行、经济合理.     

BASIN SCALE WATER MANAGEMENT AND FORECASTING USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: Water scarcity in the Sevier River Basin in south‐central Utah has led water managers to seek advanced techniques for identifying optimal forecasting and management measures. To more efficiently use the limited quantity of water in the basin, better methods for control and forecasting are imperative. Basin scale management requires advanced forecasts of the availability of water. Information about long term water availability is important for decision making in terms of how much land to plant and what crops to grow; advanced daily predictions of streamflows and hydraulic characteristics of irrigation canals are of importance for managing water delivery and reservoir releases; and hourly forecasts of flows in tributary streams to account for diurnal fluctuations are vital to more precisely meet the day‐to‐day expectations of downstream farmers. A priori streamflow information and exogenous climate data have been used to predict future streamflows and required reservoir releases at different timescales. Data on snow water equivalent, sea surface temperatures, temperature, total solar radiation, and precipitation are fused by applying artificial neural networks to enhance long term and real time basin scale water management information. This approach has not previously been used in water resources management at the basin‐scale and could be valuable to water users in semi‐arid areas to more efficiently utilize and manage scarce water resources.     

政府调控、市场机制与城市发展

深入探究政府调控和市场机制对城市规模的影响有利于解决目前中国大城市人口快速膨胀,城市病频发,而中小城市发展潜力不足,对人口吸纳能力有限,城市发展规模存在两极分化的问题。从探究影响城市发展的因素入手,通过对不同地区和不同规模城市的面板数据回归分析,发现中国属于典型的"自上而下"的城市发展模式,尤其是城市科层制的层级结构直接决定了城市规模大小,政府财政分权行为更加剧了城市规模两极分化趋势。市场机制对城市规模具有一定的影响,但其作用方向和效果明显依赖于政府调控水平,且科层制的城市等级结构弱化了市场机制对城市规模影响效果的发挥。政府和市场机制对不同区域、不同规模城市的影响效应不同。市场机制在东部城市产生涓流效应,而在中西部则发挥着聚集极化作用。市场机制在特大和大城市已产生涓流效应,加之政府"抑大崇小"的城市发展战略使得这种效应愈加明显,中等城市则处于极化效应和涓流效应更替中,小城市则表现为更多的聚集极化效应。为形成大中小城市合理分工的城市体系,其关键在于正确处理政府调控和市场机制的关系。政府应指导城市发展方向,为其创造良好的宏观环境,市场则应在微观资源配置中起决定性作用。建议根据城市发展和市场经济需要,对现有的行政区划进行适时调整和变动。调整公共资源在特大及大中小城市传统分配政策,实现公共资源由按行政级别配置向按照人口规模配置转变。同时,建立跨区域的相应的协调机制,以市场力量突破行政界限探索城市健康发展。     

Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

A study on the factor market distortion and the carbon emission scale effect of two-way FDI

Based on the data of 30 Chinese provinces for the period from 2004 to 2015, this paper expounds the carbon emissions effect of two-way foreign direct investment (FDI) from the perspective of scale effect and factor market distortions. This study uses Kaya identity to decompose carbon emission and construct simultaneous equations model to empirically examine the factor market distortion and the carbon emission scale effect of two-way FDI. The results show that the inward foreign direct investment (IFDI) increase regional carbon emission through scale effect and also exacerbates factor market distortion in China, whereas the outward FDI trends reduce carbon emission and reduces factor market distortions in China. The study also shows that human capital, research and development (R&D), trade openness, and capital accumulation are important determinants of two-way FDI. Therefore, the study proposes that IFDI policies should focus on acquiring green technologies. In addition, the domestic enterprises should be encouraged to participate in global business.     

Effects of productivity on biodiversity in forest ecosystems across the United States and China

In the global campaign against biodiversity loss in forest ecosystems, land managers need to know the status of forest biodiversity, but practical guidelines for conserving biodiversity in forest management are lacking. A major obstacle is the incomplete understanding of the relationship between site primary productivity and plant diversity, due to insufficient ecosystem‐wide data, especially for taxonomically and structurally diverse forest ecosystems. We investigated the effects of site productivity (the site's inherent capacity to grow timber) on tree species richness across 19 types of forest ecosystems in North America and China through 3 ground‐sourced forest inventory data sets (U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis, Cooperative Alaska Forest Inventory, and Chinese Forest Management Planning Inventory). All forest types conformed to a consistent and highly significant (P < 0.001) hump‐shaped unimodal relationship, of which the generalized coefficients of determination averaged 20.5% over all the forest types. That is, tree species richness first increased as productivity increased at a progressively slower rate, and, after reaching a maximum, richness started to decline. Our consistent findings suggest that forests of high productivity would sustain few species because they consist mostly of flat homogeneous areas lacking an environmental gradient along which a diversity of species with different habitats can coexist. The consistency of the productivity–biodiversity relationship among the 3 data sets we examined makes it possible to quantify the expected tree species richness that a forest stand is capable of sustaining, and a comparison between the actual species richness and the sustainable values can be useful in prioritizing conservation efforts.     

Industrial pollution,spatial stigma and economic decline: the case of Asopos river basin through the lens of local small business owners

This paper explores the notion of environmentally induced spatial stigma through an analysis of data from interviews across public attitudes to pollution within the Asopos river basin in central Greece. The area has a 40 year plus history of legal and illicit industrial waste disposal and public debate on the associated environmental degradation. The study focuses on the perceptions and beliefs of a sector of the community likely to be directly and negatively affected by stigma, that is small business owners in the tourism and hospitality sector. The qualitative analysis explores awareness and viewpoints on environmental degradation and water quality within the local context, implications for the local economy and the individual's own enterprise, views on industrial environmental management as well as corporate responsibility and future prospects for the environmental problems of Asopos. Findings reveal a noticeable variation in views on industrial pollution and ecosystem deterioration among the respondents, but overall a strong environmentally induced stigmatization of the area. They also uncover an information asymmetry and lack of credible commitment by government bodies and industry members in disclosing accurate information, a situation likely to increase speculation and uncertainty within the community. The paper concludes by addressing implications of the findings to policy-making and managerial considerations, along with future research perspectives which aim to increase considerations of sustainability aspects for local development.