IMPROVING REGIONAL-MODEL ESTIMATES OF URBAN-RUNOFF QUALITY USING LOCAL DATA1

ABSTRACT: Urban water-quality managers need load estimates of storm-runoff pollutants to design effective remedial programs. Estimates are commonly made using published models calibrated to large regions of the country. This paper presents statistical methods, termed model-adjustment procedures (MAPs), which use a combination of local data and published regional models to improve estimates of urban-runoff quality. Each MAP is a form of regression analysis that uses a local data base as a calibration data set to adjust the regional model, in effect increasing the size of the local data base without additional, expensive data collection. The adjusted regional model can then be used to estimate storm-runoff quality at unmonitored sites and storms in the locality. The four MAPs presented in this study are (1) single-factor regression against the regional model prediction, P_u; (2) least-squares regression against P_u; (3) least-squares regression against P_u and additional local variables; and (4) weighted combination of P_u and a local-regression prediction. Identification of the statistically most valid method among these four depends upon characteristics of the local data base. A MAP-selection scheme based on statistical analysis of the calibration data set is presented and tested.     

基于小波分析的入库径流变化研究

基于桂林市青狮潭水库1958—2011年入库径流资料,采用Morlet小波分析方法对入库径流在不同时间尺度下的变换时频分布特征及丰枯变化的情况进行了分析。结果表明,青狮潭水库入库径流序列具有多时间尺度变化特性,主要存在8,15,22,32 a左右的周期变化。这4个主要周期变化,主导着青狮潭水库入库径流的趋势变化特性,尤其是以32 a的周期变化为主,入库径流大致经历了枯→丰→枯→丰→枯的变化。     

County‐Scale Rainwater Harvesting Feasibility in the United States: Climate,Collection Area,Density, and Reuse Considerations

Roof rainwater harvesting (RWH) has the potential to augment water supplies for urban and suburban uses throughout the United States (U.S.). Studies of the performance of RWH at the building and city scales in the U.S. are available, but a countrywide overview of the potential performance of RWH at the county scale has not been done before. Three approaches were taken: (1) assess the viability of RWH in terms of the rainfall that could be captured in relation to the water demand in each county (excluding agriculture), (2) evaluate the performance of a “typical” domestic RWH system across all counties with metrics related to its ability to supply the potable and nonpotable demand, and (3) evaluate the effect of adding a 50% rainwater reuse component to the analysis. We find RWH could be a viable supplemental water source in the U.S., particularly in counties of the Pacific Northwest, Central, and Eastern regions (percent demand covered >50%). Low population density counties have the potential to meet their annual water needs with RWH, while high‐density counties could only source a small portion (~20%) of their annual demand with RWH. Typical RWH systems in counties in the Central and Eastern U.S. performed better than in Western counties. Adding a reuse component can be a key factor in making RWH attractive in many areas of the country. This work can inform future water infrastructure investment and planning in the U.S.     

Observed Changes in Climate and Streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande Basin

Observed streamflow and climate data are used to test the hypothesis that climate change is already affecting Rio Grande streamflow volume derived from snowmelt runoff in ways consistent with model‐based projections of 21st‐Century streamflow. Annual and monthly changes in streamflow volume and surface climate variables on the Upper Rio Grande, near its headwaters in southern Colorado, are assessed for water years 1958–2015. Results indicate winter and spring season temperatures in the basin have increased significantly, April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) has decreased by approximately 25%, and streamflow has declined slightly in the April–July snowmelt runoff season. Small increases in precipitation have reduced the impact of declining snowpack on trends in streamflow. Changes in the snowpack–runoff relationship are noticeable in hydrographs of mean monthly streamflow, but are most apparent in the changing ratios of precipitation (rain + snow, and SWE) to streamflow and in the declining fraction of runoff attributable to snowpack or winter precipitation. The observed changes provide observational confirmation for model projections of decreasing runoff attributable to snowpack, and demonstrate the decreasing utility of snowpack for predicting subsequent streamflow on a seasonal basis in the Upper Rio Grande Basin.     

Estimating Lag to Peak between Rainfall and Peak Streamflow with a Mixed‐Effects Model

We test the use of a mixed‐effects model for estimating lag to peak for small basins in Maine (drainage areas from 0.8 to 78 km²). Lag to peak is defined as the time between the center of volume of the excess rainfall during a storm event and the resulting peak streamflow. A mixed‐effects model allows for multiple observations at sites without violating model assumptions inherent in traditional ordinary least squares models, which assume each observation is independent. The mixed model includes basin drainage area and maximum 15‐min rainfall depth for individual storms as explanatory features. Based on a remove‐one‐site cross‐validation analysis, the prediction errors of this model ranged from ?42% to +73%. The mixed model substantially outperformed three published models for lag to peak and one published model for centroid lag for estimating lag to peak for small basins in Maine. Lag to peak estimates are a key input to rainfall–runoff models used to design hydraulic infrastructure. The improved accuracy and consistency with model assumptions indicates that mixed models may provide increased data utilization that could enhance models and estimates of lag to peak in other regions.     

Stormwater Control Measures for Runoff and Water Quality Management in Urban Landscapes

This study develops and tests a novel optimization method for optimally selecting and sizing stormwater control measures (SCMs) in urban landscapes for selected design storms. The developed methodology yields SCMs that capture and retain stormwater via onsite percolation, remove stormwater pollutants, and minimize stormwater control expenditures. The resulting environmental optimization problem involves integer and real variables imbedded in an objective function that is subjected to multiple constraints. This study's methodology aims at practicality and ease of implementation in the solution of the SCM sizing and selection optimization problem while taking into account the main factors that govern stormwater management in urban landscapes. The near‐optimal global solution of the SCM selection and design problem is obtained with nonlinear programming and verified with the average of multiple solutions calculated with multiple runs of an optimization evolutionary algorithm. The developed methodology is illustrated with one stormwater project in the City of Los Angeles, California.     

An empirical study of spatial-temporal growth patterns of a voluntary residential green infrastructure program

Voluntary residential green infrastructure (GI) stormwater management retrofit programs can help cities comply with environmental regulations while also improving quality of life. Previous research has identified influential factors in residents’ willingness to adopt GI, but few have simultaneously studied the spatial and temporal dynamics of GI. I use a six-year record of participation in a voluntary residential GI program in Washington DC to explore how neighborhood characteristics and social influence affect GI adoption over time. Statistical regression and Monte Carlo permutation resampling techniques are used to explain the spatial-temporal patterns of growth of the program. I demonstrate empirical evidence that participation location is increasingly determined by the locations of previous participants. These findings suggest that past participants will increasingly influence spatial clustering of GI in the city.     

页岩气钻屑固化填埋池监测与评价研究

为了探讨钻屑固化填埋池对周围土壤及水体环境的影响,以西南某页岩气田为例,分别选取了具有代表性的水基钻屑固化填埋池和油基灰渣固化填埋池,先对钻屑固化处置方式和效果进行了评价,再对钻屑固化填埋池土壤径流液及土壤进行了监测,分析了固化填埋池对周边土壤环境的影响。结果表明:钻屑固化体浸出液达到GB8978-1996《污水综合排放标准》一级排放标准,钻屑固化填埋池土壤径流液满足GB5084-2005《农田灌溉水质标准》旱作标准;水基钻屑固化填埋池和油基灰渣固化填埋池上覆土壤重金属综合污染指数分别是0.42、0.45,周边土壤重金属综合污染指数分别是0.45、0.54。钻屑固化填埋池各项监测指标均未超标,土壤重金属综合污染指数均小于0.7,钻屑固化填埋暂时未对周边土壤造成影响,属于清洁水平。短期内钻屑固化填埋效果较好,对周围土壤环境影响较小。     

上海市文教区屋面径流水质特性研究

在对2003～2006 年上海市文教区屋面径流进行监测的基础上,分析了屋面径流污染物的出流过程,并应用统计分析方法对屋面径流水质及其影响因素进行了探讨.结果表明,屋面径流污染物EMC的对数正态概率分布均呈现出良好的线性分布,说明污染物EMC具有较好的正态分布性;上海市文教区屋面径流污染物COD、SS、BOD5、NH4 -N、TP和TN的EMC中值浓度分别为42.6、76.9、15.2、1.61、0.14和4.8 mg/L;通过聚类分析可知,屋面径流水质整体上受大气沉降等污染物累积效应的影响最大,而受雨水冲刷作用的影响次之.     

元江-红河干流径流时序特性及突变分析

以元江干流主要控制性水文站蛮耗站在1956～2000年观测记录共45年的径流量序列数据为基础,运用Mann Kendall、有序聚类和累积距平等统计方法分析元江径流分布规律及其变化的基本特征。结果表明：实测径流年内分配不均,年际变化不大,年径流变差系数为0263。实测径流量序列存在明显的阶段性和缓慢上升趋势。对元江实测径流序列进行还原处理得到天然径流量,发现其与实测径流的差异不大,多年平均水资源耗水量仅占天然径流量的292%。年径流量和径流系数在1965年和1994年前后都发生两次增加突变;而年降水量与流域年蒸散发量没有发生突变。归一化植被植物变化表明元江干流植被覆盖在1993年左右被破坏较为严重。因此,得出径流变化趋势主要与降雨有关,两次突变主要受人类对下垫面改变的影响。