基于模糊聚类的马氏链模型在交通事故预测中的应用

运用模糊聚类分析方法,借助于MATLAB软件,对中国31个地区交通事故的危害程度进行动态分类和综合评价。根据中国1999—2005年31个地区的交通事故4个指标和5个社会经济因素数据,把31个地区分为3类,即轻灾区、较重灾区、重灾区;其中浙江、福建与宁夏的交通事故危害严重,上海、北京与天津的交通状况正在好转,这与客观实际符合。根据模糊聚类的结果,求得交通事故状态转移概率矩阵,利用马氏链模型可预测未来31个地区的交通事故发展趋势。     

THE SUSPENDED SEDIMENT REGIME OF AN OREGON COAST RANGE STREAM1

ABSTRACT: Armored stream segments may affect the suspended sediment regime of small mountain streams in western Oregon by the release of fine sediments stored in the bed gravels. Sieve analysis of bed materials indicated that at least 30 percent of the suspended sediment yield for the 1975–76 winter had been stored in the streambed. Suspended sediment concentrations during storm-generated runoff were influenced by stream discharge and hydrograph characteristics. Sediment-discharge relations for individual storms were characterized by hysteresis loops. A seasonal flushing of fines was shown by a progressive decrease in the ratio of suspended sediment to stream discharge during the winter runoff period.     

RIDGE REGRESSION TECHNIQUES APPLIED TO LANDSAT INVESTIGATION OF WATER QUALITY IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE1

ABSTRACT: Landsat radiance values were processed at two different (single and double) levels of accuracy to estimate chlorophyll a, turbidity, and suspended sediment in Lake Okeechobee, Florida. Both ordinary least square and ridge regression analyses were used to establish a relationship between water quality parameters and Landsat radiance. Radiance measurements made at greater precision (double level) gave a better solution in this application. The ridge regression analysis for double level not only can reduce the total mean square error about 13–20 percent and confidence interval about 6–28 percent as compared to ordinary least square analysis, but it can also change the interpretation of analysis results.     

STOCHASTIC MODELING OF MONTHLY AND DAILY RAINFALL SEQUENCES1

ABSTRACT: A monthly model and two daily models (I and II) are presented for the purpose of generating monthly and daily rainfall sequences in the Quae Yai river basin in Thailand. Performance of the models are evaluated by comparing the statistical parameters of the generated sequences with those from historical data. For monthly generation, Thomas-Fiering model worked satisfactorily in spite of the monthly correlations being weak, if any. Daily Model I, which assumes no persistence between daily rainfall amounts within the wet spells, could not preserve some important parameters regardless of the simplicity in model construction. Application of multi-state transition probability matrix model gave good results, although the user has to modify some parameters looking at the performance of the model for each historical record.     

ESTIMATING THE SUSPENDED SEDIMENT LOAD IN RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: The total suspended sediment loads of four north Mississippi reservoirs were determined from measurements of concentrations of suspended sediment in a vertical profile at several locations on each reservoir made during the year. These data were combined with the stage-height and known stage-volume relationships for each reservoir in a numerical integration to determine the total suspended sediment in the water body. Total suspended sediments were estimated using the product of the suspended sediment concentration in the surface water by the appropriate reservoir volume. The averaged ratios of the estimated to measured suspended sediment loads for each reservoir exceeded 0.90. Since the concentration of suspended sediments in surface waters of north Mississippi reservoirs has been shown as highly correlated with spectral reflectance, estimating the total suspended sediment of these reservoirs using remotely sensed spectral reflectance data is possible.     

Air quality assessment along Dhanbad - Jharia road

Road ambient air pollution status along Dhanbad – Jharia road isstudied and presented in this article. The selection of this areais made considering the importance of the road in Dhanbad district and the nature of activities taking place along the road, which reflect that the portion of road upto Dhansar can be considered as having commercial areas on both sides and that from Dhansar to Jharia as having industrial areas on both sides.For the assessment of the ambient air quality along the road monitoring is done at the following five locations: Indian Schoolof Mines (ISM), main gate; Bankmore; Dhansar police check post; Dhansar opencast project agent office and a residential house beside the Rajapur opencast project. The location of ISM, maingate is specially chosen as this represents a commercial shoppingcomplexes and the situation can be compared with that at Bankmore. Monitoring of ambient air quality is done following thestandard procedure prescribed in IS: 5182. In addition the concentration of lead, zinc, copper, iron, manganese, cadmium metals in SPM is also monitored. The ambient air quality is monitored in the months of September and November 1999, respectively, to represent monsoon and winter seasons. The SPM concentration observed at all the five locations in the winterseason is more than the permissible limits for commercial andindustrial areas. However, in the monsoon season, the SPM concentration is higher than the permissible limit at the twocommercial locations, i.e., ISM gate and Bankmore, while it isless than the prescribed limit for industrial areas at the remaining three locations. At the ISM gate and Bankmore the SPM generation is mainly by vehicular traffic while at other three locations it was in addition due to mining and other activities.     

大气总悬浮颗粒中有机碳的测定

本文提出一种新的高灵敏度测定总悬浮颗粒中有机碳的方法一元素分析法。该方法是在氧化炉最佳温度为６００℃时，一步测定出样品中有机碳的含量，并成功地对齐齐哈尔市大气总悬浮颗粒中的有机碳进行了连续的监测。结果表明，总悬浮颗粒中有机碳的含量有较明显的变化规律。     

Contamination of Oxygen-Consuming Organics in the Yellow River of China

Contamination of oxygen-consuming organics (OCOs) was one of the most serious problems in the Yellow River of China. This study was conducted to analyze monitoring of the data on OCOs contamination for the river in 1980 and during 1992–1999 as well as examining the effect of suspended solids (SS) on chemical oxygen demand (COD_Mn) and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD₅) of river water. Several significant results have arisen from the study. First, COD_Mn and BOD₅ of the river water showed an increasing trend from the upper to the lower reaches of the mainstream. BOD₅ values of river water in 1992 were significantly higher than those in 1980 and showed an increasing trend during 1992–1999. Second, OCOs in river water of the mainstream was attributed mainly to point sources; the ratio of point to non-point sources of BOD₅ was about 2.81. The load from point sources showed an increasing trend during 1992–1998. In contrast, the load from non-point sources manifested a decreasing trend during this period; this was caused by the decreasing trend of SS content in river water. The total load of BOD₅ from point and non-point sources displayed an increasing trend during 1992–1998. Third, as the humic substances in SS can hardly be biologically oxidized in natural conditions but can be oxidized by chemical oxidants such as potassium permanganate, COD_Mn was not suitable for being regarded as a parameter reflecting the pollution degree of OCOs in river water with a high SS content.     

Method to analyze the regional life loss risk by airborne chemicals released after devastating earthquakes: A simulation approach

Widespread chemical plants render human life more vulnerable to major natural disasters such as earthquakes. Recognizing the potential cascading threats initiated by a devastating earthquake, a general methodology for assessing the life loss risks introduced by airborne hazardous chemical dispersion following seismically induced chemical release (SICR) was proposed. With a 600 km × 600 km region in North China as a demonstrative study area, the dispersion of ammonia released from multiple relevant chemical plants that were supposed to be damaged by a devastating earthquake was simulated in a probabilistic manner. Using an ammonia toxicity-fatality relationship and its toxicity concentration threshold, regional life loss and spatial spread were evaluated. The life loss risk was found to be non-prominent but would be very contingent on unfavorable meteorological conditions. Non-parametric correlation analysis revealed that the respective effects of meteorological mixing parameters on the risk exhibit new features in a disaster context, that is, stronger mixing would cause elevation of risk in a region. This preliminary research implied that the risk of chemical-induced life loss after a devastating earthquake deserves attention and a thorough uncertainty evaluation in the future.     

地铁运营突发事件应急响应模式的马尔科夫链分析

为研究城市轨道交通网络化运营线路的风险传导规律和耦合关系,构建基于随机Petri网的同构马尔科夫链模型。通过模型分析突发事件应急响应模式中线路之间的相互影响,以及各线路启动突发事件应急响应模式对整个系统稳态的影响。结果表明,用该模型可从数学上研究城市轨道交通运营线路之间的传导规律和耦合关系,找出影响整个应急指挥系统效率的关键因素,最终提高地铁应对突发事件的能力。