交通事故动态分析法在肇事逃逸案件侦查中的研究与实践

针对传统交通事故动态分析法在交通肇事逃逸案件侦查中投入高、效率低、精度差的缺点,笔者在信息主导警务理念的指导下,综合运用逻辑学、系统科学、社会学、心理学、情报科学相关原理,动态分析交通事故现场的痕迹、车辆行驶轨迹、道路交通环境、警情综合信息、驾驶人行为与逃逸心理,以及受害者损伤特征,准确掌握车辆或驾驶人局部特征,从而为侦破交通肇事逃逸案件提供精确的查缉信息,使警务行动实现精确用警、快速反应和精确打击的目标。笔者给出了利用动态分析法侦破交通肇事逃逸案件的流程和步骤;指出提高办案水平,迫切需要加强警务信息和社会信息的有效融合,研发专门系统,强化信息研判。     

Integration of long-term fish kill data with ambient water quality monitoring data and application to water quality management

Almost half (354) of all fish kills (805) in South Carolina, USA, between 1978 and 1988 occurred in the coastal zone. These kills were analyzed for causative, spatial, and temporal associations as a distinct data set and as one integrated with ambient water quality monitoring data. Estuarine kills as a result of natural causes accounted for 42.8% followed by man-induced (35.1%) and undetermined causes (22.1%). Although general pesticide usage was responsible for 53.9% of man-induced kills, weed control activities around resorts and municipal areas accounted for slightly more kills (20.9%) than did agricultural (19.8%) or vector control (13.2%) uses. A dramatic decline in agricultural-related kills has been observed since 1986 as the integrated pest management approach was adopted by many farmers. When taken with the few kills (12.0%) resulting from wastewaters, this suggests that these two land-use activities have been successfully managed via existing programs (IPM and NPDES, respectively) to minimize their contributions to estuarine fish kills. Ambient trend monitoring data demonstrated no coastal-wide dispersion of pesticide pollution. These data confirmed the nature of fish kills to be site-specific, near-field events most closely associated with the contiguous land-use practices and intensities. Typically, fish kill data are considered as event-specific data limited to the bounds of that event only. Our analysis has shown, however, that a long-term data set, when integrated with ambient water quality data, can assist in regulatory and resource management decisions for both short- and long-term planning and protection applications.     

则木河断裂变形产物中微观粘滑与蠕滑标志的鉴别

在则木河断裂带宏观研究的基础上,结合岩石破裂实验成果,对包括1850年大震变形带在内的断裂产物进行定向原态采集、固结、制片和镜下系统观测,从复杂纷呈的变形遗迹中鉴别出微观粘滑与蠕滑标志。最后就有关问题进行了简要讨论.     

我国道路交通安全的国际比较研究

我国的道路交通事故是严重的。在对我国道路交通事故特点进行比较研究的基础上，分析了道路交通事故多发的原因，提出了提高道路交通系统安全性的建议。     

MULTICOMPONENT GEOCHEMICAL TRANSPORT MODELING USING HYDRUS-1D AND HP11

Abstract: The transport of reactive contaminants in the subsurface is generally affected by a large number of nonlinear and often interactive physical, chemical, and biological processes. Simulating these processes requires a comprehensive reactive transport code that couples the physical processes of water flow and advective-dispersive transport with a range of biogeochemical processes. Two recently developed coupled geochemical models that are both based on the HYDRUS-1D software package for variably saturated flow and transport are summarized in this paper. One model resulted from coupling HYDRUS-1D with the UNSATCHEM module. While restricted to major ion chemistry, this program enables quantitative predictions of such problems as analyzing the effects of salinity on plant growth and the amount of water and amendments required to reclaim salt-affected soil profiles. The second model, HPI, resulted from coupling HYDRUS-1D with the PHREEQC biogeochemical code. The latter program accounts for a wide range of instantaneous or kinetic chemical and biological reactions, including complexation, cation exchange, surface complexation, precipitation dissolution and/or redox reactions. The versatility of HP1 is illustrated in this paper by means of two examples: the leaching of toxic trace elements and the transport of the explosive TNT and its degradation products.     

基于多Agent技术的交通事故救援系统的研究

着重介绍了目前人工智能领域的研究热点问题———Agent技术的概念与原理 ,以及多Agent组的概念和分类 ;提出了基于多Agent技术的交通事故救援系统的流程框架 ;论述了该系统每一个Agent成员所能够完成的主要功能 ;通过该系统的实现 ,可以提高交通事故的及时报警与快速解决的效率 ,实行更加有效的交通流量合理分配 ;在利用既有交通基础设施的基础上增强了出行者的出行便利。笔者认为 ,随着Agent技术和网络技术研究的不断深入 ,基于Agent的应用研究必将有着更广泛的应用前景     

构造运动与中国沿岸平原的地质灾害

中国海岸穿过构造沉降带和隆起带，沉降带及隆起带断陷盆地的持续下降吸引了源远流长的大河在此人海，而隆起带内入海的河流多为近源小河，从而引起河流泥沙沿岸分配的不均和海岸沉积物的差异。沉降带内每公里海岸线接受的沉积物是隆起带的数十倍，且以砂质沉积物为主．隆起带河流泥沙来量少．而且砂质沉积物占了压倒的优势．河流泥沙沿岸分配的不均决定了中国沙质和淤泥质海岸的基本类型和分布格局、沉降带和隆起带松散沉积层的厚度和结构，山此产生了中国沿岸与第四纪沉积层有关的灾害和环境问题的有规律的分布。地面沉降主要分布于沉降带内，而地下海水入侵多出现在依赖地下水的隆起带内，底辟构造、浅层天然气往往在大河三角洲构成灾害和潜在的地质灾害．沉降带和隆起带断陷盆地内的海岸低地通常是海平面上升的主要脆弱地区．此外，丰富的河流泥沙使中国海岸对全球海平面上升的响应也不相同，如海岸湿地的再生和海岸侵蚀原因的复杂性等．     

Effectiveness of primary enforcement safety belt laws and enhanced enforcement of safety belt laws: a summary of the Guide to Community Preventive Services systematic reviews

BACKGROUND: The use of safety belts is the single most effective means of reducing fatal and nonfatal injuries in motor-vehicle crashes. This paper summarizes the systematic reviews of two interventions to increase safety belt use: primary enforcement safety belt laws and enhanced enforcement of safety belt laws. The reviews were previously published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine. METHODS: We conducted the systematic reviews using the methodology developed for the Guide to Community Preventive Services. RESULTS: These reviews provide strong evidence that primary laws are more effective than secondary laws in increasing safety belt use and decreasing fatalities and that enhanced enforcement is effective in increasing safety belt use. Increases in belt use are generally highest in states with low baseline rates of belt use. DISCUSSION: Primary safety belt laws and enhanced enforcement programs tend to result in greater increases in usage rates for target groups with lower baseline rates. Concerns regarding public opposition to these interventions may impede their implementation in some jurisdictions. However, surveys indicate that a substantial majority of the public supports implementation of both primary laws and enhanced enforcement programs. CONCLUSION: Based on the strong evidence for effectiveness of primary safety belt laws and enhanced enforcement programs, the Task Force on Community Preventive Services recommended that all states enact primary safety belt laws and that communities implement enhanced enforcement programs.     

A composite medium approximation for unsaturated flow in layered sediments

Saturated-unsaturated flow in strictly layered sediments proceeds via conductors in parallel in the direction parallel to bedding, and via resistors in series in the direction perpendicular to bedding. On sufficiently small scales of space and time, flow in such media will be subject to approximate capillary equilibrium locally, which provides a basis for approximating the effective hydraulic conductivity of a composite multi-layer medium in terms of the conductivities of the individual layers. Equations for the hydraulic conductivity tensor in "composite medium approximation" (COMA) are given in a coordinate system aligned with bedding. Hydraulic conductivity parallel to bedding is generally larger than in the perpendicular direction. The anisotropy depends on the spread of the conductivity distribution, and tends to increase for dryer conditions. The COMA model was implemented in a multi-phase flow simulator and tested by comparison with high-resolution simulations in which all layering heterogeneity is resolved explicitly. Under favorable conditions, COMA is found to accurately represent sub-grid scale flow and transport processes, providing a practical method for simulating field-scale flow and transport in layered media. The approximation improves when layers are thinner, and when flow rates are smaller.     

Aggressive behavior while driving as predictor of self-reported car crashes

PROBLEM: In Greece, there is a lack of scientific evidence on the relationship between aggressive behavior while driving and young drivers' involvement in car crashes; this study examined this potential relationship. METHODS: The randomly selected samples of 356 young drivers (18-24 years old) were interviewed through a questionnaire of self-reported car crash involvement, which mainly focused on their behavior on the road and the number of car crashes in which they had been involved. RESULTS: The statistical methods used were principal components analysis (PCA) and multiple regression analysis. Two factors relevant to aggressive driving emerged: (a) driving violations and (b) irritability while driving. The multivariate model suggested that driving just for fun (joyriding) and irritability were predictors of young drivers' involvement in car crashes. It was found that younger age was negatively associated with young drivers' involvement in car crashes. IMPACT ON GOVERNMENT AND INDUSTRY: The findings of this study can contribute in the formation of public policies aiming to prevent young drivers' car crashes. These findings can also be the starting point of some health promotion interventions trying to reduce car crashes and casualties on the road. Finally, the insurance companies may be interested in applying these findings into their field of interest.