地面装备红外辐射测量不确定度分析研究

目的 分析评价复杂背景环境下地面装备红外辐射成像特性的测量精度.方法 基于红外辐射成像测量与定标原理,全面分析复杂环境下地面目标动态红外辐射成像测量中由设备性能、环境干扰、操作参数设置及相对运动等所引入的8项误差因素.采用校准黑体与被测目标等距离同视场同步标定测量方法,基于试验方法评定各测量不确定度因子,构建地面装备红外辐射表观温度测量不确定度评定模型.结果 在置信概率为95％的条件下,典型地面车辆目标在静态和动态红外辐射表观温度测量不确定度分别为1.54℃和2.60℃.结论 形成的基于红外热像仪的复杂背景环境下地面车辆目标红外辐射成像精确度的表征与评价方法,对于地面装备红外辐射特性精确测量与红外隐身伪装性能准确评估研究具有重要参考意义.     

天津市非道路移动源污染物排放清单开发

基于天津市非道路移动源污染管控需求,根据调研收集到的2015年非道路移动源活动水平数据,采用环保部《非道路移动污染源排放清单编制技术指南(试行)》推荐的核算方法,建立较为完整的天津市非道路移动源排放清单,分析污染物的时空分布.2015年,天津市非道路移动源排放CO 6.15×10~3t、HC 2.45×10~3t、NO_x2.90×10~4t、PM 1.45×10~3t、SO_21.37×10~4t.船舶污染物排放占比最高,为所有非道路移动源污染物排放总量的73.66%,主要分布于天津港区;其次是非道路移动机械,占21.66%,主要分布于市郊种植业和养殖业区县、城市建设和人群活动较为密集的城区;民航飞机和铁路机车占比较小,分别为3.55%和1.13%,主要分布于机场和铁路沿线.总体上,非道路移动源从3月开始排放量逐渐升高,而年底和年初(冬季)排放量相对较低.     

电源适配器平均效率的测量不确定度评定

对符合GB 20943-2013定义的电源适配器平均效率的测量不确定度进行了实例评定,示范了如何处理评定过程中复杂的非线性数学模型问题,阐述了获取电源适配器平均效率合成标准不确定度的过程和方法,进而确定电源适配器平均效率测量结果的扩展不确定度。     

Dealing with uncertainty: a case study of controlling insect populations in natural ecosystems

This paper analyses the political process for handling an outbreak of an insect causing human allergic reactions. In the southern part of the Swedish island Gotland in the Baltic Sea, an outbreak of the northern pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pinivora, has occurred. With regard to the human nuisance and long-term effects on the tourist industry, demands have been raised for intervention to reduce and control the insect population. At the same time, there have been warnings against treating the insect population because there are knowledge gaps concerning the wider ecological consequences, including effects on biodiversity. This paper analyses the political process and its problem-solving efforts. Of particular interest is how it dealt with the issue of uncertainty. It was found that the uncertainty associated with the issue hindered the development of a shared understanding of the problem and a possible solution. There seems to be a growing need in society to develop the institutional capacity to handle complex issues that cross different sectors, regulatory frameworks and policy targets.     

WATER QUALITY MODEL OUTPUT UNCERTAINTY AS AFFECTED BY SPATIAL RESOLUTION OF INPUT DATA1

ABSTRACT: Resolution of the input GIS data used to parameterize distributed‐parameter hydrologic/water quality models may affect uncertainty in model outputs and impact the subsequent application of model results in watershed management. In this study we evaluated the impact of varying spatial resolutions of DEM, land use, and soil data (30 × 30 m, 100 × 100 m, 150 × 150 m, 200 × 200 m, 300 × 300 m, 500 × 500 m, and 1,000 × 1,000 m) on the uncertainty of SWAT predicted flow, sediment, NO₃‐N, and TP transport. Inputs included measured hydrologic, meteorological, and watershed characteristics as well as water quality data from the Moores Creek watershed in Washington County, Arkansas. The SWAT model output was most affected by input DEM data resolution. A coarser DEM data resolution resulted in decreased representation of watershed area and slope and increased slope length. Distribution of pasture, forest, and urban areas within the watershed was significantly affected at coarser resolution of land use and resulted in significant uncertainty in predicted sediment, NO₃‐N, and TP output. Soils data resolution had no significant effect on flow and NO₃‐N predictions; however, sediment was overpredicted by 26 percent, and TP was underpredicted by 26 percent at 1,000 m resolution. This may be due to change in relative distribution of various hydrologic soils groups (HSGs) in the watershed. Minimum resolution for input GIS data to achieve less than 10 percent model output error depended upon the output variable of interest. For flow, sediment, NO₃‐N, and TP predictions, minimum DEM data resolution should range from 30 to 300 m, whereas minimum land use and soils data resolution should range from 300 to 500 m.     

石墨炉原子吸收分光光度法测定土壤中铍的不确定度评定研究

根据石墨炉原子吸收分光光度法(GFAAS)测定土壤中铍的过程,建立相应的数学模型并对模型中各个参数进行了不确定度来源分析.依据测量不确定度的评定理论,对样品称量、定容体积、标准溶液的配制、曲线拟合、仪器测量重复性、干物质含量等影响不确定度的分量进行计算,给出了合成标准不确定度和扩展不确定度,结果表明,测定结果的不确定性主要来源于标准拟合引入的不确定度,其次为仪器重复测定引入的不确定度,该评定方法为石墨炉原子吸收分光光度法测定土壤中重金属元素的不确定度评定提供参考依据.     

基于不确定性的水资源配置双层模型及其实证研究

针对水资源管理系统的不确定性和复杂性,引入区间参数表达系统中的不确定信息,建立了反映水资源管理者和使用者之间层次关系的区间双层规划模型,并以北京市丰台区水资源管理系统为例进行实证研究.同时,基于交互式算法和模糊满意度算法,用Lingo软件编程求解,确定了丰台区水资源的优化配置方案.规划结果表明:丰台区水资源管理系统的供需水量基本达到平衡,75%的供水量来源于本地地表水和南水北调水源;规划期内的系统经济效益预期达到2.22×10~9~5.16×10~9元,COD排放量将达到1.47×10~4~1.89×10~4t.区间结果提高了优化方案的灵活性,系统满意度体现了上层决策者与下层决策者的交互.其次,通过设计4种COD最大允许排放情景,说明了不同的COD排放约束将对规划结果产生重要影响.最后,通过3种模型的对比分析可以为丰台区水资源配置提供不同发展情景下的优化方案.     

基于保护地下水的土壤修复目标层次化制订方法

按照复杂程度将污染物从土壤经地下水迁移到下游饮水井的过程划分为3个层次,采用分层评估框架建立了基于保护地下水的土壤修复目标的制订方法,并利用该方法确定了某污染场地的土壤修复目标值. 结果表明,在污染场地下游200 m处的饮水井内水质标准不降低的前提下,随着评价层次的不断提高,需要修复的污染物由4种(苯、甲苯、乙苯、二甲苯)减至1种(苯),待修复土方量由23.1×104 m3降至4.7×104 m3,可极大地节约修复成本. 该场地污染土壤的第一层次和第二层次修复目标值与部分国家/地区的有关标准限值较为一致;第三层次修复目标值考虑的污染物迁移过程更加完整,更能反映场地的实际情况. 参数的敏感性分析表明,对土壤修复目标值计算结果影响最大的参数为土壤有机质质量分数、土壤有机碳-水分配系数和入渗速度. 在确定修复方案时,应该通过试验或补充调查获取这些参数,以降低结果的不确定性. 研究显示,将第三层次评估结果作为该污染场地的修复目标能充分保证下游饮水井内水质满足要求,并且可以避免过度修复.      

含13种有机氯农药土壤标准样品的研制

采用分级稀释混合法将来自不同采样点的含不同种类和浓度的有机氯农药(OCPs)的样品进行混合制得含13种OCPs的土壤标准样品。根据GB/T 15000《标准样品工作导则》系列标准对土壤标准样品进行均匀性检验、稳定性检验,并和16家实验室协作定值。实验结果表明:土壤标准样品中13种OCPs指标均匀性良好,保证土壤标准样品足够均匀的最小取样量为0.50 g;在室温(不超过30℃)避光贮存条件下,在为期12个月的稳定性检验期间,该土壤标准样品中13种OCPs稳定性良好。该土壤标准样品中13种OCPs指标的含量范围为0.08~5.23μg/g,扩展不确定度为0.014~0.82μg/g,基本满足我国土壤、沉积物等环境样品中OCPs的质量控制检测需求。     

Growth of the Decision Tree: Advances in Bottom‐Up Climate Change Risk Management

There has recently been a return in climate change risk management practice to bottom‐up, robustness‐based planning paradigms introduced 40 years ago. The World Bank's decision tree framework (DTF) for “confronting climate uncertainty” is one incarnation of those paradigms. In order to better represent the state of the art in climate change risk assessment and evaluation techniques, this paper proposes: (1) an update to the DTF, replacing its “climate change stress test” with a multidimensional stress test; and (2) the addition of a Bayesian network framework that represents joint probabilistic behavior of uncertain parameters as sensitivity factors to aid in the weighting of scenarios of concern (the combination of conditions under which a water system fails to meet its performance targets). Using the updated DTF, water system planners and project managers would be better able to understand the relative magnitudes of the varied risks they face, and target investments in adaptation measures to best reduce their vulnerabilities to change. Next steps for the DTF include enhancements in: modeling of extreme event risks; coupling of human‐hydrologic systems; integration of surface water and groundwater systems; the generation of tradeoffs between economic, social, and ecological factors; incorporation of water quality considerations; and interactive data visualization.