用ICS-90型离子色谱仪测定水中钙离子的不确定度分析

对离子色谱法测定水中钙离子的不确定度进行评定,并分析了其影响因素主要有来自重复测量引入的A类不确定度和来自工作曲线的不确定度以及来自标准溶液的不确定度。     

从色觉、科学仪器、测不准原理看非决定论

通过对色觉、科学仪器、测不准原理的分析,认为认识在感性阶段是客主体相互作用的结果.感官的生物学意义在于对客体的区别.这种区别是相对准确的,而不是与客体严格一一对应的.科学仪器是人感官的延伸.色觉与其它感官和科学仪器同是人类认识工具.测不准问题是与认识工具直接相关,与客主体相互影响密不可分的,它在宏观上和微观上同时存在,它不是非决定论的理论依据.     

SAMPLE UNCERTAINTY IN FLOOD LEVEE DESIGN: BAYESIAN VERSUS NON-BAYESIAN METHODS1

ABSTRACT: Bayesian and non-Bayesian flood levee design methods that account for the uncertainty due to limited record length are compared using a case study. The first method, Bayesian decision theory (BDT), imbeds the uncertainty in the parameters of the yearly peak stage into a loss function. The optimum design of the flood levee, called Bayes design, corresponds to the minimum expected loss, called Bayes risk. The second method, induced safety algorithm (ISA), computes a margin of safety to be added to either an existing levee or a levee designed by classical benefit-cost analysis. The design decision is shown to fluctuate as different record lengths are considered. For short record lengths, BDT, which takes small sample bias into account, appears to yield a more conservative design than ISA. On the other hand, ISA, which is simple to implement, seems to be preferable to BDT for longer record lengths.     

离子选择电极法测量氟化物不确定度评定

评定了用离子选择电极法测量水和废水中氟化物浓度测量结果的不确定度,含氟量所产生的不确定度、取样体积所产生的不确定度等分量合成标准不确定度。前者包括标准溶液拟合曲线、仪器精密度、标准溶液配制三个不确定度分量。假定取包含因子k=2得到扩展不确定度。     

异常环境下要害系统确信安全评估方法

目的 获得异常环境下的要害系统确信安全评估(PLOAS)建立评估方法和技术框架,为要害系统安全性设计和安全防护决策提供科学支撑.方法 基于要害系统在异常环境条件下结构响应行为机制,以表征安全性的响应特征参数为对象,融合试验、数值仿真等技术手段以及代理模型构建等不确定性分析方法,通过定量计算安全特征参数未达到失效阈值的概率,建立通用的确信安全评估方法和技术流程.结果 针对单特征参数系统、隔离-失能系统以及多特征参数系统,分别提出了PLOAS的定义.并以高压容器作为工程案例,实现了火烧环境下高压容器的确信安全评估.结论 建立的确信安全评估方法技术流程兼顾了系统安全物理特性与统计特点,对于高安全性要求的要害系统安全风险评估具有较好的适用性和推广性.     

军品用电动振动试验台测量结果不确定度评定

振动试验台测量结果是否准确可靠,直接关系到对军工产品的评价.结合军工产品环境振动试验工作实际,根据检定规程JJG190-1997《电动振动试验台》检定规程的要求,对使用中电动振动试验台测量结果不确定度进行评定,使电动振动试验台测量结果更加科学合理可靠.     

水质铜测定不确定度的评定

根据火焰原子吸收分光光度法测定水中的铜含量,分析主要的测量不确定度来源,即标准曲线不确定度、标准溶液不确定度、测量重复性不确定度.计算得到水中铜的测定结果的合成不确定度为0.098mg/L,扩展不确定度为0.196mg/L.     

Assessment of risk from long term exposure to waterborne pathogens

Disease due to waterborne pathogens, whether in outbreak or endemic form, continues to be a problem in both the developing and the developed world. Control of waterborne disease requires accurate assessment of the pathogen dose-response relation and of likely patterns of exposure. Heretofore, risk assessment of pathogen exposure has been done on the basis of several standard biologically plausible dose-response models. In this paper, the problem of estimating the long-term risk from waterborne pathogens is put into a rigorous mathematical and statistical framework. The implications of the biologic assumptions embedded in the dose-response models (e.g., heterogeneity in susceptibility) are fully considered, as are the likely patterns of long-term exposure (e.g., temporal correlations within individuals and heterogeneity of mean exposures). Two types of long-term risk are described, risk per person-time and risk per individual where the latter is the risk of infection at least once. The effects on these risks of heterogeneity in individuals susceptibilities and mean exposures and of temporal correlations of exposures are described, both theoretically and empirically using a sample of experimental data sets. Because different models with equal plausibility may give very different results in the low-dose range but fit the experimental data equally well, we apply the model uncertainty algorithm of Buckland et al. (1997) on example data sets. Finally, the computational aspects of the general problem, which are often challenging, are discussed along with the conditions under which simplifying approximations may be utilized.     

Application of geostatistical methods to arsenic data from soil samples of the Cova dos Mouros mine (Vila Verde-Portugal)

A total of 286 soil samples were collected in the Cova dos Mouros area. All samples were dry sieved into the <200 mesh size fraction and analysed for Fe, Cu, Zn, Pb, Co, Ni, Bi and Mn by atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) and for As, Se, Sb and Te by atomic absorption spectrometry-hydrid generation (AAS-HG). Only the results of arsenic are discussed in this paper although the survey was extended to all analysed chemical elements. The purpose of this study was to make a risk probability mapping for arsenic that would allow better knowledge about the vulnerability of the soil to arsenic contamination. To achieve this purpose, the initial variable was transformed into an indicator variable using as thresholds the risk-based standards (intervention values) for soils, as proposed by [Swartjes 1999. Risk based assessment of soil and groundwater quality in the Netherlands: Standards and remediation. J. Geochem. Explor.73 1–10]. To account for spatial structure, sample variograms were computed for the main directions of the sampling grid and a spherical model was fitted to each sample variogram (arsenic variable and indicator variables). The parameters of the spherical model fitted to the arsenic variable were used to predict arsenic concentrations at unsampled locations. A risk probability mapping was also done to assess the vulnerability of the soil towards the mining works. The parameters of the spherical model fitted to each indicator variable were used to estimate probabilities of exceeding the corresponding threshold. The use of indicator kriging as an alternative to ordinary kriging for the soil data of Cova dos Mouros produced unbiased probability maps that allowed assessment of the quality of the soil.     

观测误差对非线性环境模型参数识别的影响

采用SCE-UA方法和RSA方法，比较了在不同的观测误差条件下，优化方法和不确定性分析方法对于非线性模型参数识别的影响。分析表明，RSA方法是在具有观测误差的数据条件下进行参数识别的一种有效手段。同时，通过比较分析，发现RSA方法预测的浓度平均值和概率最大值与“真实值”并不完全一致。因此，在使用RSA方法时，应该充分考虑预测区间，以降低决策风险。