全面放开二孩政策背景下人口增长对资源环境的影响和需求分析

2015年底,我国全面放开了二孩政策,势必对我国的人口总量和增长态势产生深刻影响,进而影响我国的资源需求和环境压力。在采用队列元素法预测全面放开二孩后我国总人口及各省(市、自治区)人口的基础上,运用城乡人口比增长法预测未来城镇化水平,本文依据这两种预测结果系统探讨人口政策变动对我国资源消费、环境污染的定量预测和具体影响。假定未来的人均资源环境消耗量保持现状不变,按照预测的未来人口总量和增量,得出人口增长对我国资源环境的需求变动。通过计算新增的资源环境需求量,对比需求总量与我国的资源环境供给能力,进一步分析人口增长对资源环境各方面的压力大小。研究发现:全面放开二孩政策后,我国的粮食、生活用能源、生活用水、城乡建设用地的需求量和生活污染物排放量均逐年递增,但变化速率有所差异。为满足未来人口增长所产生的需求,粮食和能源的自给率明显降低,未来将需要更多地依赖进口。全国的供水能力和保障水平急需提高,其中北京、河南、江苏、青海、四川的现状供水能力与未来生活用水需求差距较大。各省建设用地需求差异明显,吉林、湖北、山东、四川、江苏、湖南、新疆、广东、黑龙江、贵州等省市的城市建设用地新增需求量将快速释放,但已有的建设用地储备无法满足预测需求。生活污染物的治理压力加大,环境保护与治理能力应该继续加强。     

Birth of healthy children after preimplantation diagnosis of β-thalassemia by whole-genome amplification

Preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) offers couples at risk for transmitting an inherited disorder the possibility to avoid the need to terminate affected pregnancies. PGD for monogenic diseases is most commonly accomplished by blastomere biopsy from cleavage-stage embryos, followed by PCR-based DNA analysis. However, the molecular heterogeneity of many monogenic diseases requires a diagnostic strategy capable of detecting a range of mutations and compound genotypes. With the above considerations, we developed an accurate and reliable strategy for analysis of β-globin gene mutations, applicable for PGD for the wide spectrum of β-thalassemia major mutations in the Chinese population. The strategy involves primer-extension preamplification (PEP), followed by nested PCR and reverse dot blot (RDB) for mutation detection since it facilitates simultaneous analysis of more than one mutation in a single cell. This report describes the application of the strategy in two clinical IVF/PGD cycles at risk for transmitting β-thalassemia major, which resulted in the first thalassemia-free children born after PGD in China. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

传动轴万向节叉精密成形研究与试验

采用三维有限元法对万向节叉锻件热挤压成形过程进行了数值模拟仿真分析。针对其成形过程中出现的缺陷进行模具优化设计。生产实践表明 ,改进后的模具结构从根本上解决了改进前出现的充不满及形状尺寸不能满足要求的问题 ,并且提高了材料利用率 ,延长了模具寿命 ,降低了工人劳动强度 ,同时工件获得较高的尺寸和形状精度 ,较好的纤维流向和机械性能     

环境水体中肠道病原细菌定量PCR检测与膜过滤分析方法的比较

采用通用引物,通过实时荧光定量PCR方法(QPCR),对西安市5个地表水体中肠道病原细菌的细胞密度进行了分析.检测水样体积为100mL,分别于2006年3～6月取自水源水(黑河)、景观娱乐用水(大唐芙蓉园北湖和兴庆湖)、纳污河(浐河)和未消毒的二级出水(北石桥污水处理厂),并将QPCR检测结果与滤膜法(MF)测得的细菌总数、大肠菌群和粪大肠杆菌CFU结果进行了比较分析.5个水体(n=60)检测结果显示,QPCR检测结果是大肠菌群CFU的2.2～5倍,是粪大肠杆菌CFU的7～14倍.病原细菌检测的几何平均值范围,QPCR法在25～67000 CCE·100mL-1之间,MF法大肠菌群在3～45000 CFU·100mL-1之间,粪大肠菌群在0～3000 CFU·100mL-1之间(n=60).两种方法的检测结果使用Spearman秩相关法来计算,结果显示,QPCR检测结果与大肠菌群、细菌总数以及粪大肠杆菌CFU均呈现显著正相关,秩相关系数分别为r=0.983、r=0.908和r=0.948.     

Percutaneous Exposure Incidents Among Australian Hospital Staff

We investigated all reported percutaneous exposure incidents (PEI) among staff from a large Australian hospital in the 3-year period, 2001-2003. There were a total of 373 PEI, of which 38.9% were needlestick injuries, 32.7% were cutaneous exposures and 28.4% sharps-related injuries. Nurses were the most commonly affected staff members, accounting for 63.5% of the total, followed by doctors (18.8%) and other staff ( 17.7%). Needlestick injuries were responsible for the majority of nurses’ PEI (44.7%). Sharps injuries constituted the major category for doctors (44.3%). Most needlestick injuries (67.6%) were caused by hollow-bore needles, while the majority of cutaneous exposures involved blood or serum (55.8%). Most sharps injures were caused by unknown devices (35.9%) or suture needles (34.9%). Overall, our investigation suggests that PEI is a considerable burden for health care workers in Australia. Further research is now required to determine the relationships, if any, between workers who suffer PEI and those who do not.     

基于指标规范值的环境质量引力普适指数公式

为了建立物理意义明确、科学合理、计算简单和普适通用的环境质量评价模型,借鉴自然界普遍存在的万有引力现象和物理学中的规范对称性(不变性)原理,提出环境样本之间也存在类似万有引力的聚类相互作用引力,并在适当设定指标参照值和指标值的规范变换式及"参照级"样本基础上,定义了环境样本的"规范质量"和"规范坐标"的概念,进而分别建立了基于指标规范值的水环境质量和空气环境质量的引力普适指数公式.通过若干实例对公式的实用性进行了效果检验,结果表明,基于指标规范值的环境质量的引力普适指数公式具有形式简洁、规范统一、计算简便和普适通用的特点.     

Whole genome amplification from a single cell: a new era for preimplantation genetic diagnosis

Preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) is a technique used for determining the genetic status of a single cell biopsied from embryos or oocytes. Genetic analysis from a single cell is both rewarding and challenging, especially in PGD. The starting material is very limited and not replaceable, and the diagnosis has to be made in a very short time. Different whole genome amplification (WGA) techniques have been developed to specifically increase the DNA quantities originating from clinical samples with limited DNA contents. In this review, currently available WGA techniques are introduced and, among them, multiple displacement amplification (MDA) is discussed in detail. MDA generates abundant assay-ready DNA to perform broad panels of genetic assays through its ability to rapidly amplify genomes from single cells. The utilization of MDA for single-cell molecular analysis is expanding at a high rate, and MDA is expected to soon become an integral part of PGD. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于泛平均运算的矿井瓦斯浓度组合预测模型

为有效分析煤矿瓦斯监测数据以实现准确、可靠的瓦斯浓度预测,基于不等权泛平均运算模型,研究瓦斯浓度时间序列组合预测的方法,提出一种新的矿井瓦斯浓度组合预测模型,并证明最优组合预测模型是其特例。采用自回归(AR)模型和径向基函数(RBF)神经网络预测模型作为组合预测模型的单项预测模型;以遗传算法和最小二乘法确定新组合预测模型的参数,实现瓦斯浓度预测单项模型的最优组合。试验分析表明:新模型在平方和误差、平均绝对误差、均方误差、平均绝对百分比误差、均方百分比误差等评价指标上,均取得比自回归模型、径向基函数神经网络模型和最优组合预测模型更低的误差。     

A COMPARISON OF GEOSTATISTICAL METHODOLOGIES USED TO ESTIMATE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT1

ABSTRACT: The need to monitor and forecast water resources accurately, particularly in the western United States, is becoming increasingly critical as the demand for water continues to escalate. Consequently, the National Weather Service (NWS) has developed a geostatistical model that is used to obtain areal estimates of snow water equivalent (the thtal water content in all phases of the snowpack), a major source of water in the West. The areal snow water equivalent estimates are used to update the hydrologic simulation models maintained by the NWS and designed to produce extended streamflow forecasts for river systems throughout the United States. An alternative geostatistical technique has been proposed to estimate snow water equivalent. In this research, we describe the two methodologies and compare the accuracy of the estimates produced by each technique. We illustrate their application and compare their estimation accuracy using snow data collected in the North Fork Clearwater River basin in Idaho.     

New molecular method to detect denitrifying anaerobic methane oxidation bacteria from different environmental niches

The denitrifying anaerobic methane oxidation is an ecologically important process for reducing the potential methane emission into the atmosphere. The responsible bacterium for this process was Candidatus Methylomirabilis oxyfera belonging to the bacterial phylum of NC10. In this study, a new pair of primers targeting all the five groups of NC10 bacteria was designed to amplify NC10 bacteria from different environmental niches. The results showed that the group A was the dominant NC10 phylum bacteria from the sludges and food waste digestate while in paddy soil samples, group A and group B had nearly the same proportion. Our results also indicated that NC10 bacteria could exist in a high pH environment (pH 9.24) from the food waste treatment facility. The Pearson relationship analysis showed that the pH had a significant positive relationship with the NC10 bacterial diversity (p < 0.05). The redundancy analysis further revealed that the pH, volatile solid and nitrite nitrogen were the most important factors in shaping the NC10 bacterial structure (p = 0.01) based on the variation inflation factors selection and Monte Carlo test (999 times). Results of this study extended the existing molecular tools for studying the NC10 bacterial community structures and provided new information on the ecological distributions of NC10 bacteria.