京津冀一次重污染过程的成因和来源

2016年12月16~21日,京津冀地区经历了一次大范围重污染过程.本文基于空气质量监测资料及实况天气图分析了此次极端区域重污染事件的天气成因,并利用嵌套网格空气质量预报模式（NAQPMS）对京津冀主要城市PM_2.5污染来源进行定量解析.结果表明：污染前中期500hPa高空为偏西气流伴空中回暖,后期转槽前偏南气流增温增湿明显;对应地面气压逐渐降低,辐合不断增强;垂直方向上,逆温层不断抬升加厚,中低层暖平流明显,风垂直切变小;大气长时间处于极度静稳状态也是造成此次重污染过程的天气因素.污染期间,京津冀各主要城市PM_2.5污染本地贡献占40%~60%;北京市PM_2.5本地贡献为48%,其中16~17日北京市主要受沿太行山东侧的西南向输送通道（邯郸-邢台-石家庄-保定-北京）影响,其后风速减小,北京本地及周边城市贡献增大.     

泉州市环境空气质量现状、影响因素及综合防治对策

随着我国各方面综合实力的不断提高,生产、建筑等方面对自然环境造成的污染是极大的,人们生活水平提高的同时也越来越关注城市内大气污染问题。如何治理大气污染,保持人与自然的和谐发展,已经成为当前人们共同面临的一个难题。泉州市地处福建省东南沿海,是我国"一带一路"战略海上丝绸之路的先行区。在经济高速发展的同时,工业企业、机动车数量快速增加,大气污染过程偶有发生,作为国家环保模范城市,其大气环境问题得到越来越多的关注,因此提出有效的综合防治对策势在必行。本文结合泉州市自然(气象、地形)与社会经济(产业布局)等因素,分析了泉州市不同季节大气颗粒物污染成因,并提出有针对性的大气颗粒物污染综合防治对策与管理措施。     

The Reproductive Capacity of Plants in a Gradient of Chemical Environmental Pollution

The reproductive capacity of Taraxacum officinale s.l. (two morphological forms: T. off. f. dahlstedtii Lindb. fil. and T. off. f. pectinatiforme Lindb. fil.) under conditions of chemical environmental pollution was studied in years differing in weather conditions. The number of generative shoots in plants increased along the toxic load gradient, which led to an increase in the total number of seeds and the weight of filled seeds. The relative energy value of seeds was determined from the amount of plastic substances in them. The number of seeds was shown to increase at a considerably higher rate than the energy expenditures for the formation of each seed. A general principle was revealed that determines the energy expenditures for the formation of a normal seed in both T. officinale forms under different weather conditions and under the chemical pollution of the environment.     

改善北京市大气环境质量中居民支付意愿的影响因素分析

本文旨在用统计的方法 ,分析影响北京市居民为改善大气环境质量而付费的支付意愿的主要社会经济因素。分析结果表明 ,对被调查者支付意愿影响最显著的因素是家庭收入 ,其次是年龄、家庭人口数和教育水平。其中 ,收入和教育水平对支付意愿的影响为正 ,年龄和家庭人口数的影响为负。对调查范围内八个行政区被调查者的支付意愿均值比较显示 ,这八个区居民的支付意愿没有显著性差异。本文的结论是 ,提高收入水平和环境意识水平 ,是提高公众为改善环境质量而付费的支付意愿的有效途径     

非点源污染影响因素及区域差异

随着点源污染控制加强,非点源问题更加突出。污染时间、方式、总量的三不确定给农业环境管理带来困难,控制措施难以有效实施,特别是农业非点源污染日益加剧,水环境质量不断恶化。从污染产生过程,结合污染特征,分析了非点源污染汇污的各种影响因素,包括污染物现存总量及变化趋势和环境净化能力、农业生产活动及管理水平、气候和水文条件;特别提出社会经济活动对污染影响显著;指出主导影响因子的时空变化,并存在地域差异。强调了在三峡库区开展基础调查工作和建立污染数据库的必要性,以期为库区农业环境质量现状评价和总体控制措施的筛选提供科学依据。     

基于熵权-HDT的航空器维修人误概率确定

人误是造成民用航空维修差错的主要因素。为确定不同情境下人误发生概率,结合某维修基地具体情况,采用熵权法确定主要的影响因子,并基于全决策树法分析主要影响因子对航空器维修人误概率的影响程度。计算结果显示,该维修基地人因可靠性的主要影响因子包括航空器维修人员的安全态度、技能、沟通、工作环境、压力以及工段长领导能力。根据各主要影响因子的不同品质描述等级组合,确定该情境下航空器维修人员的人误概率。鉴于该维修基地人因可靠性影响最明显的因子是"沟通",提出信息及时交流、明确沟通重要性等解决措施。     

城市安全生产影响因素及其预测分析——以上海为例

为研究我国城市安全生产的影响因素及预测城市安全生产的发展趋势,以上海市为例,对2004—2010年期间与安全生产相关的数据进行灰色关联度分析,提取影响安全生产状况的主要经济社会因素,并与工矿商贸死亡人数之间建立回归模型。研究结果表明,工矿商贸死亡人数与第二产业比重、GDP增长率、教育支出占GDP比重以及私营及个体工商户比例均呈现负相关。基于2007—2011年各月份上海市的安全生产死亡人数,运用Winters乘法模型,预测上海市安全生产发展趋势。     

夏季持续高温天气对北京市大气细粒子(PM2.5)的影响

在1999-06-23北京市出现长达13d的持续高温期间对细粒子(PM_2.5)质量浓度进行了观测.数据表明,持续高温期间细粒子质量浓度比非高温期间要高出2～3倍.但是通过对持续高温期间的气象数据进行分析,发现还是很利于污染物扩散.进一步分析同步监测的O₃浓度、颗粒物中SO₄^2-的粒径范围及其含量等数据,发现夏季持续高温期间活跃的光化学反应应该是北京市细粒子的主要来源.     

Estimating resource utilization demands in implementing statewide screening,brief intervention,and referral to treatment for alcohol-impaired drivers

Objectives: The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) is used to assess the level of alcohol use/misuse and to inform the intensity of intervention delivered within screening, brief intervention, and referral to treatment (SBIRT) programs. Policy initiatives are recommending delivery of SBIRT within health care settings to reduce alcohol misuse and prevent alcohol-impaired driving. Recent reports are considering extending delivery of SBIRT to criminal justice settings. One consideration in implementing SBIRT delivery is the question of resource utilization; the amount of effort required in delivering the 4 different intensities of intervention in SBIRT: Alcohol education, simple advice, brief counseling and continued monitoring, and brief counseling and referral to specialist (from least to most intense in terms of delivery time, the skill level of the provider, and personnel resources).

Methods: In order to inform expectations about intervention intensity, this article describes the AUDIT scores from 982 adults recently arrested for alcohol-impaired driving. The distribution of scores is extrapolated to state rates for individuals arrested for alcohol-impaired driving by intervention level.

Results: Though alcohol education was the most common intervention category, about one quarter of the sample scored in a range corresponding with the more intensive interventions using the brief counseling, continued monitoring for ongoing alcohol use, and/or referral to specialist for diagnostic evaluation and treatment.

Conclusions: This article provides local distribution of AUDIT scores and state estimates for the number of individuals scoring in each level of risk (AUDIT risk zone) and corresponding intervention type. Routine criminal justice practice is well positioned to deliver alcohol screening, education, simple advice, and continued alcohol monitoring, making delivery of SBIRT feasible for the majority of alcohol-impaired drivers. Challenges to implementing the full range of SBIRT services include resource demands of brief counseling, identifying the appropriate providers within a criminal justice context, and availability of community providers for referral to diagnostic and specialty care. Solutions may vary by state due to differences in population density and incidence rates of alcohol-impaired driving.     

Factors associated with driving under the influence of alcohol

Objective: This study examined the risk factors of driving under the influence of alcohol (DUI) among drivers of specific vehicle categories (DSC). On the basis of this research, the variables related to DUI and involvement in traffic crashes were defined. The analysis was conducted for car drivers, bicyclists, motorcyclists, bus drivers, and truck drivers.

Method: The research sample included drivers involved in traffic crashes on the territory of Serbia in 2016 (60,666). Two types of analyses were conducted in this study. Logistic regression established the correlation between DUI and DSC and the The Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (Multi-criteria decision making) method was applied to consider the scoring and explore the potential for the prevalence of DUI on the basis of 2 data sets (DUI and non DUI).

Results: The study results showed that driver error and male drivers were the 2 most significant risk factors for DUI, with the highest scores and potential for prevalence. The nonuse of restraint systems, driver experience, and driver age are the factors with a significant prediction of involvement in an accident and an insignificant prediction of DUI.

Conclusions: Following the development of the logistic prediction models for DUI drivers, testing of the model was conducted for 3 control driver groups: Car, motorcycle, and bicycle. The prediction model with a probability greater than 50% showed that 77% of car drivers were under the influence of alcohol. Similarly, the prediction percentage for motorcyclists and bicyclists amounted to 71 and 67%, respectively. The recommendation of the study is that drivers whose DUI probability is above 50% should be potentially suspected of DUI. The results of this study can help to understand the problem of DUI among specific driver categories and detect DUI drivers, with the aim of creating successful traffic safety policy.