北京地区奥运会期间PM2.5对心脑血管疾病的影响

为了探讨2008年奥运会前后减排和限行措施对北京居民心脑血管健康的影响,调查了2006~2010年7~9月的空气质量状况及北京急救中心心脑血管疾病日入院人数,采用时间序列方法中的非参数广义相加模型(GAM),在控制了长期趋势、"星期几效应"及气象因素的影响后,分析了北京PM2.5浓度与心脑血管疾病日入院人数的暴露-反应关系,并按性别、年份建立了模型.结果表明,PM2.5对心脑血管疾病的影响具有一定的滞后效应,全人群、男性和女性滞后均为0~2d,在2006~2010年7~9月中,2008年3个人群的RR均最小,2009年RR最大.PM2.5日均浓度每增加10μg/m3,2008年男性、女性及全人群日入院人数风险分别增加0.18%、0.07%和0.00%,2009年男性、女性及全人群日入院人数风险分别增加3.43%、2.10%和2.97%.2008年7~9月采取的相关政策措施对降低了北京地区居民心脑血管疾病的发病风险具有重要作用.     

煤矿噪声对人的注意力影响实验研究

为了研究煤矿噪声对作业人员注意力的影响,采用舒尔特方格法对20名被试者进行5 d的测试,以反应时间和错误次数为评价标准,测试了5种不同分贝煤矿噪声下的注意力水平。运用SPSS,Excel等软件对实验所得的反应时间、出错次数和超时次数进行分析。结果表明:不同噪声等级刺激对矿工的注意力水平存在差异。噪声等级在35~85 db时,注意力水平变化不显著,当噪声等级超过85 db后,对注意力水平的影响趋于显著。煤矿安全规程规定井下作业场所的噪声不应超过85 db,如果超过此临界值,噪声会对矿工的注意力产生较大的负面影响,导致不安全行为的发生;不同噪声等级分别与矿工出错次数、超时次数成正相关关系。当噪声等级在35~85 db时,随噪声刺激的增大,矿工出错次数的增长率先增大后减小,而超时次数的增长率刚好相反。噪声等级超过85 db后,矿工出错次数、超时次数的增长率一致。     

天津市冬季气溶胶吸湿因子的粒径分布特征

气溶胶粒径吸湿增长因子［g（RH）］是影响气溶胶消光和气溶胶辐射强迫的重要因素.利用吸湿性串联差分电迁移率分析仪（HTDMA）观测了天津市冬季不同污染状态下气溶胶粒子g_m（RH）的粒径分布.同时基于水溶性离子的粒径分布,利用κ-Köhler理论获取了较宽粒径范围内（60 nm~9.8 μm）的g_κ（RH）,为环境状态下气溶胶光学参数和直接辐射强迫的模拟提供基础.结果表明,清洁状态下大气光化学反应较为活跃,超细粒子（<100 nm）的g_m（RH）较高,g_m（RH=80%）在1.30以上.重度污染天,气溶胶中水溶性离子的质量分数随粒子粒径增大而增加,导致g_m（RH）随着粒子粒径增大而增大,300 nm粒子的g_m（RH=80%）和g_m（RH=85%）分别可达1.39和1.46.在较宽粒径范围（60 nm~9.8 μm）内,不同模态气溶胶的吸湿性强弱表现为积聚模态>爱根模态>粗模态.大气重污染过程中气溶胶粒径明显增大,积聚模态气溶胶中NO₃^-和SO₄^2-含量较清洁天明显增加,受此影响,污染状态下积聚模态气溶胶的吸湿性较清洁天明显增强,g_κ（RH）达到1.3~1.4,具有强吸湿性的气溶胶粒径范围也同时扩大,在0.18~3.1 μm粒径段均较高,对能见度恶化有重要的贡献.     

郑州市细颗粒物时空差异及管控措施影响

为研究郑州市细颗粒物（PM_2.5）时空分布差异及秋冬季管控措施影响,于2017年秋季至2018年冬季选取5个点位采集PM_2.5样品并进行组分分析,利用正定矩阵因子分解模型（PMF）解析PM_2.5污染来源,评估郑州市秋冬季管控效果,并基于源解析结果为下一阶段秋冬季管控提供支撑.郑州市PM_2.5浓度冬季 > 秋季 > 春季 > 夏季,郑州大学（ZZU）PM_2.5浓度最高［（83.1±44.7）μg·m^-3］,高出平均浓度［（76.5±46.1）μg·m^-3］的8.7%.SO₄^2-、NO₃^-和NH₄⁺在9种水溶性离子中平均占比高达22.5%、43.6%和23.4%,受燃煤影响Cl^-两年冬季占比高于其他季节（6.7%和6.6%）.秋冬季二次有机碳（SOC）污染严重,浓度占有机碳的一半以上,2018年市监测站（JCZ）和ZZU点位SOC/OC比2017年有所下降,但其他3个点位大幅度升高,说明这些地区不同的排放基础应对管控措施的表现不尽相同.重构结果表明硫酸盐占比在夏季最高（25.0%）,硝酸盐两年秋季占比较高（23.1%和25.1%）,地壳物质春季占比最高（18.2%）,二次有机气溶胶（SOA）冬季最高（14.1%和20.5%）;JCZ和航空港（HKG）点位SOA贡献较大（16.9%和16.4%）,ZZU点位受到一次有机气溶胶和地壳物质影响较大（14.3%和12.1%）.PMF结果表明二次无机盐（37.5%）、SOA（15.4%）、交通源（14.9%）、工艺过程源（4.8%）、燃煤源（16.0%）、扬尘源（6.5%）和生物质燃烧源（2.8%）是郑州市PM_2.5的主要污染源,SOA和燃煤源在冬季贡献最大,扬尘源和生物质燃烧源在春季和秋季贡献较大;市区点位JCZ、ZZU和临近机场的HKG受到交通源的影响高于其他点位,非市区点位新密和HKG受到生物质燃烧源的影响较大.对比两年秋冬季,2018年秋冬季SOA、交通源和工艺过程源的贡献有所升高,而二次无机盐、燃煤源和生物质燃烧源有所下降,冬季扬尘源也有所下降.结果表明秋冬季管控措施对一次源中的扬尘、燃煤和工业效果显著,同时SOA前体物挥发性有机物是进一步减排管控的方向.     

间歇梯度曝气下缩短SRT强化短程SNEDPR系统脱氮除磷

为了探究间歇梯度曝气下污泥龄对氨氧化菌（AOB）和亚硝酸盐氧化菌（NOB）的影响,研究短程硝化内源反硝化除磷系统对于处理低C/N比生活污水的优势作用,本文采用SBR反应器培养好氧颗粒污泥,实验进水采用实际生活污水.结果表明,在SRT由50 d逐渐降低至30 d过程中,比氨氧化速率由3.16 mg·（g·h）^-1增加至4.38 mg·（g·h）^-1,比亚硝酸盐氧化速率由3.4 mg·（g·h）^-1降为1.8 mg·（g·h）^-1左右,可知NOB活性降低约44%,从而使系统实现了短程硝化.当SRT为30 d时,由典型周期实验可知亚硝酸盐最大积累量可达6.93mg·L^-1.由于系统中污泥浓度随SRT的减少而略有降低,因此在反应进行至40 d左右时根据DO曲线采取降低曝气量的策略,最终SRT为30 d时系统出水COD浓度为40.76 mg·L^-1,TN浓度为12.4 mg·L^-1,TP浓度为0.31 mg·L^-1,强化了系统中C、N和P的同步去除,最终得到了稳定运行的短程硝化内源反硝化除磷系统.同时好氧颗粒污泥EPS含量与SRT呈现负相关性,蛋白质含量由污泥龄为50 d的66.7 mg·g^-1升为30 d的95.1mg·g^-1,多糖保持在12.1~17.2 mg·g^-1的范围内,说明SRT的降低对蛋白质含量的影响较多糖大,当SRT为30 d时,PN/PS值保持在6.2左右,好氧颗粒污泥在该条件下仍能保持较好的结构稳定性.     

长江口北槽航道淤积过程的动态系统数学模拟

采用非传统方法－－现代控制理论中的动态系统辨识理论与时间序列分析相结合的方法对长江口北槽人工航道淤积过程作探讨，建模及预报，从得到的动态数学模型的模拟结果，预防结果看，与实际情况相吻，说明此尝试是成功的。     

Effects of uncertainty, transmission type, driver age and gender on brake reaction and movement time

PROBLEM: Braking time (BT) is a critical component in safe driving, and various approaches have been applied to minimize it. This study analyzed the components of BT in order to assess the effects of age, gender, vehicle transmission type, and event uncertainty, on its two primary components, perception-reaction time and brake-movement time. METHOD: Perception-reaction time and brake-movement time were measured at the onset of lights for 72 subjects in a simulator. The six experimental conditions were three levels of uncertainty conditions (none, some, and some + false alarms) and two types of transmission (manual and automatic). The 72 subjects, half male and half female, were further divided into three age groups (mean of 23, 30, and 62 years). Each subject had 10 trials in each of the three levels of uncertainty conditions. RESULTS: Transmission type did not significantly affect either perception-reaction time or brake-movement time. Perception-reaction time increased significantly from 0.32 to 0.42 s (P < .05) as uncertainty increased but brake-movement time did not change. Perception-reaction time increased (from 0.35 to 0.43 s) with age but brake-movement time did not change with age. Gender did not affect perception-reaction time but did affect brake-movement time (males 0.19 s vs. females 0.16 s). IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: At 90 km/h, a car travels 0.25 m in 0.01 s. Consequently, even such small effects multiplied by millions of vehicle-kilometers can contribute to significant savings in lives and damages.     

薄膜结构在动风荷载下的安全性能分析

从理论和实践两方面对薄膜结构在风荷载下的安全性能进行了研究。根据随机过程理论 ,用计算机模拟生成具有空间相关性的风场。发展建立了膜结构几何非线性动力响应问题的有限元公式 ,并以此为基础对一具体的膜结构进行了动力时程响应分析。通过观察膜结构在不同风速下的位移时程曲线 ,笔者发现 :当外界风速小于一定的临界风速时 ,结构的位移响应会逐渐趋于稳态 ,结构的振动逐渐趋于稳定 ,这时结构是安全的 ;当外界风速超过或接近临界风速时 ,结构的振幅会逐渐增大 ,膜结构将可能发生驰振损坏。进而提出了通过增大膜内预应力或提高膜曲面的曲率来防止膜结构风振破坏的方法 ,并指出了在设计和施工中为保证膜结构的风振安全应当采取的措施。     

USE OF SOIL MOISTURE PROBES TO ESTIMATE GROUND WATER RECHARGE AT AN OIL SPILL SITE1

Soil moisture data collected using an automated data logging system were used to estimate ground water recharge at a crude oil spill research site near Bemidji, Minnesota. Three different soil moisture probes were tested in the laboratory as well as the field conditions of limited power supply and extreme weather typical of northern Minnesota: a self‐contained reflectometer probe, and two time domain reflectometry (TDR) probes, 30 and 50 cm long. Recharge was estimated using an unsaturated zone water balance method. Recharge estimates for 1999 using the laboratory calibrations were 13 to 30 percent greater than estimates based on the factory calibrations. Recharge indicated by the self‐contained probes was 170 percent to 210 percent greater than the estimates for the TDR probes regardless of calibration method. Results indicate that the anomalously large recharge estimates for the self‐contained probes are not the result of inaccurate measurements of volumetric moisture content, but result from the presence of crude oil, or borehole leakage. Of the probes tested, the 50 cm long TDR probe yielded recharge estimates that compared most favorably to estimates based on a method utilizing water table fluctuations. Recharge rates for this probe represented 24 to 27 percent of 1999 precipitation. Recharge based on the 30 cm long horizontal TDR probes was 29 to 37 percent of 1999 precipitation. By comparison, recharge based on the water table fluctuation method represented about 29 percent of precipitation.     

INDEXED SEQUENTIAL HYDROLOGIC MODELING FOR HYDROPOWER CAPACITY ESTIMATION1

ABSTRACT: The indexed sequential hydrologic modeling (ISM) methodology is utilized by the Western Area Power Administration as the basis for risk-based estimation of project-dependable hydropower capacity for several federally owned/operated projects. ISM is a technique based on synthetic generation of a series of overlapping short-term inflow sequences obtained directly from the historical record. The validity of ISM is assessed through application to the complex multireservoir hydropower system of the Colorado River basin for providing risk estimates associated with determination of reliable hydrogeneration capacity. Performance of ISM is compared with results from stochastically generated streamflow input data to the Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS). Statistical analysis and comparison of results are based on monthly power capacity, energy generation, and downstream water deliveries. Results indicate that outputs generated from ISM synthetically generated sequences display an acceptable correspondence with those obtained from stochastically generated hydrologic data for the Colorado River Basin.