The future of hydropower in Europe: Interconnecting climate,markets and policies

Hydropower is very important for electricity supply security in the European inter-connexion as well as for the economy of regions (primarily peripheral) that possess water resources. Its future may however be jeopardized by several factors: climate change, the development of new renewable energy, the creation of super and micro-grids, and progress in power storage technology. Energy and climate policy, as well as electricity market design and dynamics play a pivotal role.This article carries out a comprehensive analysis of all these factors and discusses the future of hydropower. This discussion follows an overview of the present situation and of future drivers. The technical, environmental, economic and political aspects of the problem are analyzed with an interdisciplinary approach. The stakes as well as the uncertainties are highlighted.The conclusion is that hydropower has a promising future, particularly in light of emerging sustainable energy policy, but that the risks should not be overlooked. Academics will find a comprehensive interdisciplinary analysis of hydropower in this article, whereas public bodies, communities and hydropower companies can identify the strategic variables that should be taken into consideration in the decision making process. The end of water concessions or authorizations is also evoked.     

Green defaults: Information presentation and pro-environmental behaviour

There is inconsistency in many people's choice of electricity. When asked, they say they prefer a ‘green’ (i.e., environmentally friendly) source for this energy. Yet, although green electricity is available in many markets, people do not generally buy it. Why not? Motivated by behavioural decision research, we argue that the format of information presentation drastically affects the choice of electricity. Specifically, we hypothesise that people use the kind of electricity that is offered to them as the default. We present two natural studies and two experiments in the laboratory that support this hypothesis. In the two real-world situations, there was a green default, and most people used it. In the first laboratory experiment, more participants chose the green utility when it was the default than when ‘grey’ electricity was the default. In the second laboratory experiment, participants asked for more money to give up green electricity than they were willing to pay for it. We argue that changing defaults can be used to promote pro-environmental behaviour. Potential policy-making applications of this work are discussed.     

低碳消费偏好与低碳产品需求分析

低碳消费方式是低碳经济的重要环节,本文对低碳消费偏好和低碳产品需求及其影响因素作了理论分析和实证研究.首先对低碳产品的消费偏好进行了分析,低碳产品消费偏好的两个最重要特征是二元价值结构的产品和超越基本价值的消费偏好,在此基础上构建了低碳产品效用函数.然后根据低碳产品效用函数给出了低碳产品的一般需求模式,结合低碳产品置信度变量的引进,构建了一个具体的低碳产品需求函数,并对低碳产品需求函数进行分析,揭示了低碳产品需求的一些基本性质.为了验证低碳消费理论分析的结论,做了低碳产品消费的问卷调查.对问卷调查进行统计分析,结果表明:收入越高,对低碳产品支付的价格就越高;低碳产品的环境价值置信度越高,意愿支付价格就越商；低碳产品碳排放量降低越多,低碳产品需求价格就越高.最后,结合以上分析,从低碳宣传和公益广告、设立低碳产品标准、鼓励低碳产品技术研发角度提出了促进低碳消费发展的政策建议.     

中国碳排放强度与煤炭消耗的冲击效应分析

受能源消费结构的影响,煤炭作为我国经济发展的资源支柱,一方面推动着经济快速增长,另一方面也对中国节能减排、降低碳排放强度提出了挑战,因而准确认识碳排放强度与煤炭消耗之间的交互冲击作用机理,为挖掘碳减排路径提供了科学依据.本文选取1990 - 2008年间中国碳排放强度与煤炭消耗指标,采用EG协整检验证明碳排放强度与煤炭消耗之间存在长期稳定关系,并以此建立VAR模型和脉冲响应函数,考察碳排放强度与煤炭消耗之间的长期动态影响特征.冲击响应分析结果表明:(1)煤炭消耗比重的变化对碳排放强度的冲击影晌具有一定滞后性和波动性,但冲击作用长期持久；(2)碳排放强度对煤炭消耗比重的冲击影响在短期内较剧烈,但长期冲击影响不明显；(3)煤炭消耗比重的降低在长期内会促使碳排放强度的降低,因而可以通过降低煤炭消耗比重来达到降低碳排放强度的目的.最后,从结构性降低、产业传导性降低以及技术性降低等角度,提出减少煤炭消耗、降低碳排放强度的相关对策措施.     

三烧溴化锂集中制冷空调系统改建设计

武钢三烧区域改建了二台大连三洋蒸汽型双效溴化锂吸收式制冷机。叙述了该改建项目的主机选型、参数选定、设计特点等。     

城镇居民生活能耗与碳排放动态特征分析

居民家庭生活能源消费与碳排放越来越不容忽视,开展这方面研究对于促进居民可持续消费、寻找新的节能减排途径都具有十分重要的意义.本文在考察量化1999-2007年中国城镇居民生活直接、间接能源消费及其碳排放连续变化的基础上,探究了这段时期生活能耗与碳排放的动态变化特征,并分析其潜在的影响因素.研究主要结论包括:1999-2007年,中国城镇居民人均生活总能耗和碳排总量都呈现出逐年增加趋势,其中间接能耗与碳排始终大于直接能耗与碳排,但二者的差异正在逐年缩小;对于人均直接能耗与碳排来说,二者总量都呈逐年增加趋势,其中电力和煤炭是最主要的直接能源消费品种,也是最主要的碳排来源;对于人均间接能耗与碳排来说,虽然居民生活消费开支逐年递增,但由于各类消费项的单位产值能源强度在逐年下降,因此总的间接能耗与碳排并没呈现出一定的递增或递减趋势,而是出现波动性变化.其中"食品"、"教育文化娱乐服务"和"居住"3项是居民生活间接能耗与碳排的主要来源;人均住宅建筑面积是居民生活碳排变化的主要影晌因子.研究结论为引导可持续的家庭消费模式和节能减排措施的制定提供管理启示与科学依据.     

Carbon capture and storage-desirability from a risk management point of view

Environmental and safety risks related to carbon capture and storage concern leakages and accidental releases during transport and geological storage. Based on principles widely accepted in the EU and beyond in the discussion about the where’s and why’s of nuclear waste repositories, this paper discusses the desirability of carbon capture and storage from a risk management point of view, focusing on environmental risks on the global level (climate change). On this basis it is concluded that, if the key energy issue of coming generations, not just in Europe but all around the world, is not the abundance of fossil resources but rather an unacceptably high probability of global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions, then the solution should not include any massive hiding of the emissions but entirely focus on the avoidance based on improved technology in power plants and other industrial installations.     

中国现代城镇化发育的能源消费

城镇是现代社会财富积累的中心。矿物燃料为主的一次能源不仅是现代人类社会发展的基本动力来源,也是现代城镇化发育的基本动力来源。随着城镇化发育不断走向成熟,城镇的生存和发展对能源消费的依赖日趋强烈。这种消费需求不仅体现在总量增长方面,而且更体现在质量提高方面。世界和中国的实践均证明了这一点。所不同者,在产业发展政策和能源消费政策的作用下,中国现代城镇化发育的能源消费表现出明显的不尽人意:第一,能源消费总量增长迅速,甚至进入21世纪以来也是如此;第二,能源消费结构演进缓慢、特别是进入国家城镇化快速发育阶段后的表现更是如此;第三,能源产出效率提高有限,甚至出现一定程度的倒退。如此能源消费特征,对中国城镇化的持续发育构成了巨大挑战,因此,建议加快城镇产业结构调整、推进能源消费结构演进和提高城镇能源消费质量。     

Decomposition Analysis of Sectoral Energy Use in Beijing （1981-2005） Using the LMDI Method

This paper aims to identify the main driving force for changes of total primary energy consumption in Beijing during the period of 1981-2005. Sectoral energy use was investigated when regional economic structure changed significantly. The changes of total primary energy consumption in Beijing are decomposed into production effects, structural effects and intensity effects using the additive version of the logarithmic mean Divisia index （LMDI） method. Aggregate decomposition analysis showed that the major contributor of total effect was made by the production effect followed by the intensity effect, and the structural effect was relatively insignificant. The total and production effects were all positive. In contrast, the structural effect and intensity effect were all negative. Sectoral decomposition investigation indicated that the most effective way to slow down the growth rate of total primary energy consumption （TPEC） was to reduce the production of the energy-intensive industrial sectors and improving industrial energy intensity. The results show that in this period, Beijing＇s economy has undergone a transformation from an industrial to a service economy. However, the structures of sectoral energy use have not been changed yet, and energy demand should be increasing until the energy-intensive industrial production to be reduced and energy intensity of the region reaches a peak. As sequence energy consumption data of sub-sectors are not available, only the fundamental three sectors are considered： agriculture, industry and service. However, further decomposition into secondary and tertiary sectors is definitely needed for detailed investigations.