Ecosystem Modeling Applied to Nutrient Criteria Development in Rivers

Threshold concentrations for biological impairment by nutrients are difficult to quantify in lotic systems, yet States and Tribes in the United States are charged with developing water quality criteria to protect these ecosystems from excessive enrichment. The analysis described in this article explores the use of the ecosystem model AQUATOX to investigate impairment thresholds keyed to biological indexes that can be simulated. The indexes selected for this exercise include percentage cyanobacterial biomass of sestonic algae, and benthic chlorophyll a. The calibrated model was used to analyze responses of these indexes to concurrent reductions in phosphorus, nitrogen, and suspended sediment in an enriched upper Midwestern river. Results suggest that the indexes would respond strongly to changes in phosphorus and suspended sediment, and less strongly to changes in nitrogen concentration. Using simulated concurrent reductions in all three water quality constituents, a total phosphorus concentration of 0.1 mg/l was identified as a threshold concentration, and therefore a hypothetical water quality criterion, for prevention of both excessive periphyton growth and sestonic cyanobacterial blooms. This kind of analysis is suggested as a way to evaluate multiple contrasting impacts of hypothetical nutrient and sediment reductions and to define nutrient criteria or target concentrations that balance multiple management objectives concurrently. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this article are those of the authors alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency or of the U.S. Government.     

秦山岛周边海域春季浮游植物群落结构特征

于2016年4月对秦山岛周边海域5个断面20个站位浮游植物进行调查,共鉴定出浮游植物5门84种,平均密度1.10×10^5个/m^3,优势类群硅藻(70种)平均密度为8.75×10^4个/m^3,甲藻9种,平均密度为8.10×10^3个/m^3;优势种主要为琼氏圆筛藻(Coscinodiscus jonesianus)(Y=0.095)、星脐圆筛藻(Coscinodiscus asteromphalus)(Y=0.087)、针状蓝纤维藻(Dactylococcopsis acicularis)(Y=0.087)、中肋骨条藻(Skeletonema costatum)(Y=0.070)、夜光藻(Noctiluca scientillans)(Y=0.058)、刚毛根管藻(Rhizosolenia setigera)(Y=0.051)等11种;多样性指数平均值为2.76,种类分布相对均匀。受沿岸4条河口淡水径流及营养元素输入影响,靠近河口的C、D断面浮游植物密度较高,琼氏圆筛藻、星脐圆筛藻、中肋骨条藻、针状蓝纤维藻等具有较高优势度,但密度较低,赤潮风险较低;各断面优势种组成存在一定更迭。     

Adding complex trophic interactions to a size-spectral plankton model: Emergent diversity patterns and limits on predictability

A new model in the NPZ (nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton) style is presented, mechanistically simple but with 40 size classes each of phytoplankton (1-20 μm) and small zooplankton (2.1-460 μm), in order to resolve one level of trophic interactions in detail. General, empirical allometric relationships are used to parameterize both the optimal prey size and size selectivity for each grazer class, as is rarely done. This inclusion of complex predator-prey linkages and realistic prey preferences yields a system with an emergent pattern of phytoplankton diversity consistent with global ocean observations, i.e., a parabolic relationship between diversity (as measured by the Shannon evenness) and biomass. It also yields significant long-term time evolution, which places limits on the extent to which the community response to nutrient forcing can be predicted from forcing in a pragmatic sense. When a simple annual cycle in nutrient supply is repeated exactly for many years, transient fluctuations up to a factor of two in spring bloom magnitude persist for 10-20 years before a stable seasonal biomass cycle is achieved. When the amplitude of the nutrient-supply annual cycle is given a random interannual modulation, these long-lived transients add significant noise to a 100-year correlation between annual-mean nutrient supply and annual-mean biomass. This noise is 20% of total interannual variance in the model base case, and ranges from 0% to 40% depending on the grazer size selectivity. In general, unpredictability on the bloom timescale is damped when food-web complexity is increased by making grazers less selective, while unpredictability on the interannual scale shows the opposite pattern, increasing with increasing food-web complexity up to a high threshhold, past which community structure and biomass time evolution both suddenly simplify. These results suggests a new strategy for ensemble ecosystem forecasting and uncertainty estimation, analogous to methods common in circulation and climate modeling, in which internal variability (predator-prey interactions in the biological case; eddies and climate-system oscillations in the physical case) are resolved and quantified, rather than suppressed.     

Assessment of the effects of a port expansion on algae appearance in a costal bay through mathematical modelling. Application to San Lorenzo Bay (North Spain)

In the last years several episodes of algae appearance affecting bathing areas have been observed in San Lorenzo Bay (north of Spain). The analysis of the collected algae revealed that they might come from near intertidal or shallow subtidal zones due to eutrophication processes or through drift algae movement by the action of marine currents. In the vicinity of this area, the expansion of the Port of Gijón (now under construction) supposes a significant modification of the coastal geometry. The magnitude of such an expansion could cause changes in the patterns of currents in the bay, with the consequent alteration of the observed algal appearance phenomena. A mathematical modelling study to evaluate the risk of generation of eutrophication processes in the San Lorenzo Bay area and the transport of drift algae from near sea bed areas was developed. This study required the use of different hydrodynamic models in order to characterize the currents caused by tides, winds and waves. The eutrophication processes in the bay were analyzed with a depth-averaged two-dimensional eutrophication model which deals with eight water quality variables. Calibration of model parameters with the observed data from a field survey was performed. A reasonable agreement with the field measurements was achieved. Model results showed that the maximum phytoplankton concentrations were below eutrophic conditions. Although, the port expansion has led to an increment of phytoplankton concentrations, chlorophyll a levels were not representative of eutrophic conditions. To analyse the transport of drift algae, a methodology based on the utilization of a two-dimensional model which solves the depth-averaged advection-diffusion equation considering seaweed as a conservative tracer was developed and applied. Numerical modelling allowed the identification of the coastal areas that seems to be the source of the seaweed found on the beach. It was also proven that port expansion does not significantly affect drift algae transport in the area.     

Phytoplankton photosynthetic activity and growth rates in the NW Adriatic Sea

Taxonomic composition, biomass, primary production and growth rates of the phytoplankton community were studied in two stations in the NW Adriatic Sea on a seasonal basis, in areas characterized by differing hydrological and trophic conditions. The main differences between the two stations were quantitative rather than qualitative, most phytoplankton species being common to both stations. The effects of differing nutrient concentrations and plume spreading were evident. Biomass and primary production rates were significantly higher in the coastal station (S1), and the phytoplankton distribution in the water column was markedly stratified in S1 and more even in the offshore station (S3). However, chlorophyll a specific production, potential growth rate and production efficiencies were very similar in both stations, even when phosphorus concentrations were limiting. A discrepancy between potential and actual growth rate was observed: as a feature common to both stations, comparisons between potential and actual growth rates revealed that little carbon produced by phytoplankton accumulated as algal biomass; therefore, very high loss rates were estimated.     

Phytoplankton production modelling in three marine ecosystems—static versus dynamic approach

Phytoplankton productivity is usually determined from water samples incubated at a number of irradiance levels during several hours. The resultant productivity-irradiance (P–E) curves are then used to estimate local and/or global phytoplankton production. However, there is growing evidence that these curves, referred as static, underestimate phytoplankton photosynthesis to a great deal, by assuming a stable response to light over the incubation period. One of the drawbacks of static P–E curves is the overestimation of photoinhibition.In this work, three one-dimensional vertically resolved models were developed as simply as possible, to investigate differences between static and dynamic phytoplankton productivity in three marine ecosystems: a turbid estuary, a coastal area and an open ocean ecosystem. The results show that, when photoinhibition development time is considered (dynamic model), the primary production estimates are always higher than when calculated with the static model. The quantitative importance of these differences varies with the type of ecosystem and it appears to be more important in coastal areas and estuaries (from 21 to 72%) than in oceanic waters (10%). Thus, these results suggest that primary production estimates, obtained under the assumption of a static behaviour response to light, may underestimate the real values of global phytoplankton primary production. Calculations suggest that the quantitative importance of this underestimation may be larger than the global missing carbon sink.     

高宝湖区4个湖泊浮游植物和底栖动物群落特征和生物评价

于2018年12月—2019年8月对高宝湖区4个湖泊的浮游植物及大型底栖动物的群落结构和多样性进行了调查。结果表明，各湖泊浮游植物和大型底栖动物的密度、生物量、优势种及多样性存在显著的时空差异（P<0.05），浮游植物和底栖动物的密度和生物量均表现为丰水期最大，2类水生生物的Margalef丰富度指数和Shannon Wiener多样性指数变化趋势一致。浮游植物种群组成上主要以绿藻门为主，丰水期高邮湖和白马湖的藻密度已达到轻度水华的级别，且各湖泊浮游植物优势种主要为蓝藻门易引起水华的藻类，各湖泊浮游植物物种多样性评价等级为“一般”至“较丰富”；底栖动物群落主要由摇蚊科幼虫、双壳类和软甲类动物构成，优势种主要为摇蚊科幼虫和寡毛类动物，物种多样性评价等级为“贫乏”至“一般”。各湖泊浮游植物藻密度增加，底栖动物敏感物种减少。水质的生物评价结果为4个湖泊均受到不同程度的污染，表明湖泊受到的环境压力增大，水生生物群落结构发生变化，多样性降低。     

A bunch of tiny individuals—Individual-based modeling for microbes

The individual-based (aka agent-based) approach is now well established in ecological modeling. Traditionally, most applications have been to organisms at higher trophic levels, where the importance of population heterogeneity (intra-population variability), complete life cycles and behavior adapted to internal and external conditions has been recognized for some time. However, advances in molecular biology and biochemistry have brought about an increase in the application of individual-based modeling (IBM) to microbes as well. This literature review summarizes 46 IBM papers for bacteria in wastewater treatment plants, phytoplankton in ocean and inland waters, bacteria in biofilms, bacteria in food and other environs, and “digital organisms” and “domesticated computer viruses” in silico. The use of IBM in these applications was motivated by population heterogeneity (45%), emergence (24%), absence of a continuum (5%), and other unknown reasons (26%). In general, the challenges and concepts of IBM modeling for microbes and higher trophic levels are similar. However, there are differences in the microbe population dynamics and their environment that create somewhat different challenges, which have led to somewhat different modeling concepts. Several topics are discussed, including producing, maintaining and changing population heterogeneity (different life histories, internal variability, positive feedback, inter-generation memory), dealing with very large numbers of individuals (different up-scaling methods, including representative space vs. super-individual, number vs. biomass based, discrete vs. continuous kinetics, various agent accounting methods), handling space, simulating interactions with the extracellular environment (hybrid Eulerian–Lagrangian approach), modeling agent–agent interaction (self-shading, predation, shoving) and passive transport (random walk with spatially variable diffusivity, well-mixed reactors). Overall, the literature indicates that the application of IBM to microbes is developing into a mature field. However, several challenges remain, including simulating various types of agent–agent interactions (formation and function of colonies or filaments, sexual reproduction) and even smaller individuals (viruses, genes). Further increases in intracellular detail and complexity in microbe IBMs may be considered the combination of systems biology and systems ecology, or the new field of systems bioecology.