人-机系统事故预防理论研究

分析人-机系统事故发生原因,剖析经典以人失误为主因的事故致因模型存在的不足,在该模型基础上增加"刺激"形成的原因,构建了改进事故致因模型。对两模型进行比较研究,指出人机工程学与防止事故的关系,提出了人机工程学防止事故的方法,并给出人机界面合理性主观评价检查表。研究及论证表明:预防人-机系统事故的本质在于有效防止人失误的发生,除安全管理措施以外,最重要的是人机工程学问题,笔者提出的基于人机工程学的人-机系统事故预防理论,对人-机系统事故的预防起到积极的指导作用。     

面向城市水系环境需水的再生水空间配置——以深圳市宝安区为例

以深圳市宝安区为例,探讨以再生水满足城市水系环境需水的方法.应用一维恒定与非恒定水质模型计算了4种补水水质方案下该区10条主要河流的环境需水量,从水量平衡角度提出全区再生水BOD5的平均值,并进一步分析了补水水质与河流环境需水量的关系.结合该区水系与污水处理系统空间位置,提出3种再生水的空间配置方法.结果表明:茅洲河和...     

THE REGULATED RIPARIAN VERSION OF THE ASCE MODEL WATER CODE: THE THIRD WAY TO ALLOCATE WATER1

ABSTRACT: Lawyers, engineers, and hydrologists are accustomed to thinking of water law as falling into one of two incompatible models: riparian rights (under which water is allocated by courts according to the relative reasonableness of the competing uses) and appropriative rights (under which water is allocated according to the temporal priority of the competing uses, largely by the action of the water users themselves but perfected by the issuance of an administrative permit). Usually unnoticed is the existence of a third approach, which I have dubbed “regulated riparianism.” Under regulated riparianism, water is allocated by water permits issued after an administrative determination of the reasonableness of the proposed use before the use is commenced. This system, now in place in about half of the states east of Kansas City (plus Hawaii), thus is fundamentally different from either the traditional ripanan rights that it replaces or the appropriative rights found in western states.     

EVALUATING INTERDEPENDENT WATERSHED CONSERVATION AND GROUND WATER MANAGEMENT REFORMS1

Abstract: Conserving the watershed can help to preserve ground water recharge. Preventing overuse of available water through pricing reforms can also substantially increase the value of an aquifer. Inasmuch as users are accustomed to low prices, efficiency pricing may be politically infeasible, and watershed conservation may be considered as an alternative. We estimate and compare welfare gains from pricing reform and watershed conservation for a water management district in Oahu that obtains its water supply from the Pearl Harbor aquifer. We find that pricing reform is welfare superior to watershed conservation unless the latter is able to prevent very large recharge losses. Watershed conservation that yields net gains in combination with pricing reform may cause net losses without the pricing reform. If adoption of watershed conservation delays the implementation of pricing reform, the benefits of the latter are significantly reduced.     

CHARACTERIZATION OF HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT PLATTE RIVER SPECIES RECOVERY EFFORTS1

ABSTRACT: Efforts are under way to recover habitat for several threatened and endangered species in and along the Platte River in central Nebraska. A proposed recovery program for these species requires a means of characterizing “wet” versus “normal” versus “dry” hydrologic conditions in order to set corresponding Platte River instream flow targets. Methods of characterizing hydrologic conditions in real time were investigated for this purpose. Initially, 10 watershed variables were identified as potentially valuable indicators of hydrologic conditions. Ultimately, six multiple linear regression equations were developed for six periods of the year using a subset of these variables expressed as frequencies of nonexceedence. The adequacy of these equations for characterizing conditions was assessed by evaluating their historic correlation to subsequent flow in the central Platte River (1947–1994). These equations explained 54 to 82 percent of variability in the observed flow exceedences in the validation datasets, depending upon the period of year evaluated. These equations will provide initial criteria for setting applicable flow targets to determine, in real time, whether water regulation projects associated with the species recovery effort can divert or store flows without conflicting with recovery objectives.     

A GAME-THEORETIC APPROACH TO ACID RAIN ABATEMENT: CONFLICT ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL LOAD ALLOCATION1

ABSTRACT: The detrimental impacts of acid rain have become widely publicized, but effective and equitable methods to mitigate the acid rain problem remain to be found. This paper focuses on conflicts involved in allocation of the total emission loads to be reduced to respective pollution sources of acid rain, and proposes a game-theory approach to the resolution of the conflict. With an example abstracted from a hypothetical case study in the United States of America and Canada, a systematic analysis is performed and policy implications of the results examined to assess the applicability of the proposed model.     

IMPROVED RIVER BASIN UTILIZATION THROUGH SYSTEMS ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT. Theoretical and practical results are summarized for a study to determine optimal water resource allocation in a proposed water conservancy district. The area of this district, which covers several river basins, contains a large number of existing and proposed facilities such as reservoirs and diversions. The operation of all of these facilities was to be determined along with the sizing of the proposed facilities in order to optimize given objective functions. Related efforts in optimal river basin utilization were surveyed, and linear programming was selected as an expedient optimization technique. The problem is formulated by identifying time stages which together constitute a repetitive cycle such as a year. With these stages, it is possible to associate operational and capacity variables with network components, which are branches and nodes. Objective functions are assembled for the component variables. Constraint equations are written in terms of the variables to reflect network nodal continuity, capacity restrictions, and adjudications such as water rights. A numerical example is considered in which the existing and proposed facilities are aggregated to produce a small, tractable number of facilities. This paper examines the example results and suggests future improvements for models of this type.     

丽江古城水环境现状与调控对策研究

水环境是丽江世界文化遗产地生态地质环境的重要组成部分。由于丽江城市化进程加快，对水环境保护不力，导致古城水污染加剧、水资源量衰减、景观生态用水不足和景观水质下降。通过强化水环境研究，加强水环境立法，进行水生态环境综合治理；实施以调剂古城周边地下泉水为主，拉市海调水为辅的丽江古城景观调水方案，可保护丽江古城水环境，为丽江古城世界文化遗产地的可持续发展提供保证。     

人员位置固定的公共场所分区疏散研究

通过将分区疏散转化为分配问题(Allocation Problem),并采用启发式的A*优化算法,对人员位置固定的公共场所分区疏散进行研究。进一步利用基于元胞自动机模型的大型公共场所人员疏散行为模拟仿真系统,在充分考虑公共场所中每个人员的状态、人员之间以及人员与周围环境的相互作用的前提下,对疏散分区的效果进行模拟;通过与未分区的模拟结果相比较,可以认为,分区疏散有助于人员快速疏散,大大缩短整体避难时间,而且基于移动路径搜索的分区更加切合实际。     

ROLE OF IRRIGATION WATER IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION: SOME RESOURCE USE ISSUES1

ABSTRACT: A partial production function for corn that considers the time and amount of water applications is determined. Examples are worked out by using data on site specific parameters for nine soil sites in the Great Plains Region repesenting various combinations of water holding capacity, pan evaporation, and average rainfall. It is found that soils with a low water holding capacity are more water and energy intensive in crop production and thus more vulnerable to fluctuations in net returns due to declining water tables or energy shortages. Despite this, farmers of low water holding capacity soils are likely to opt for irrigation. This points to the existence of a necessary, but sufficient, condition for socially inefficient use of ground water resources. This calls to question the property right concept in water created through the appropriation doctrine and the “law of capture.” This paper indicates the type of analysis that must be undertaken in order to make appropriate changes in laws governing water use.