灾变性事件引起的消费品产业链价格波及效应研究

为了研究地震等灾变性事件对于消费品产业链内价格传递和市场的影响,本文利用从2008年2月至2009年3月四川省江油市畜产业链进行实证研究,使用向量纠错模型（VECM）和历史分解图（HDG）分析了价格调整的动态效果和沿产业链的因果关系。结果表明,价格的调整关于速度和大小都是不对称的,外生震荡对于该产业链的不同层面产生不同影响,导致价格差益的扩大和价格不完全传递。该方法能够有效地分析灾变事件条件下消费品产业链内价格波及效应问题。     

中国地区经济差距及其演化的产业变动因素

20世纪90年代以来中国地区经济差距扩大具有深刻的产业变动原因。以人均GDP为基本指标,通过对基尼系数进行产业分解和对泰尔指数进行地区分解,深刻分析了1990~2004年中国地区经济差距的动态变化、地区构成和产业构成,揭示了中国地区经济差距及其演变的产业结构变动与产业地区集中因素。结果表明,1990年以来中国地区经济差距的决定性因素是第二产业发展水平的地区差距,而非农产业向东部沿海地区的集中又是推动中国地区经济差距扩大的主导性因素。20世纪90年代以来,随着以制造业为主的非农产业向东部沿海地区集中,中西部地区逐渐沦落为以农业与采掘业为主的外围区域,中国的地区经济差距也由此持续扩大。基于此,认为缩小地区差距的关键是推进中西部地区制造业发展,缓解非农产业地区分布的不平衡状况。     

中亚热带马尾松林凋落物分解过程中的微生物与酶活性动态

采用凋落物原位分解法,研究了中亚热带马尾松林中马尾松、槲栎凋落叶单独及混合(自然质量比8∶2)分解过程中的微生物数量与酶活性动态.结果表明:①3类凋落物的年分解常数K的大小为:混合凋落物(0.94)>槲栎凋落物(0.86)>马尾松凋落物(0.67);②3类凋落物真菌数量和微生物数量均在夏季(135 d时)达到最大值,而此时细菌和放线菌数量最低;③3类凋落物纤维素酶活性、酸性磷酸酶活性均与凋落物干重剩余率呈显著正相关(P<0.05),而马尾松与混合型凋落物中的多酚氧化酶活性同凋落物干重剩余率呈极显著负相关(P<0.01);④微生物数量和多酚氧化酶活性均总体表现为槲栎凋落物>混合凋落物>马尾松凋落物,酸性磷酸酶活性多表现为槲栎凋落物最低,与分解常数K排列有一定的差异,说明凋落物分解是微生物和多种酶共同作用的结果.整体研究表明,凋落物质量和季节气候的差异显著影响微生物群落及其调控的生态过程,与纯马尾松凋落叶相比,针阔混合使微生物数量和多酚氧化酶活性显著提高,这可能是导致分解加快的重要原因.     

基于LMDI中国省域氮氧化物减排与实现路径研究

首先基于Kaya恒等式,利用对数平均Divisia指数分解模型(LMDI法)将氮氧化物排放分解为排放因子、能源强度、经济结构、能源结构和经济发展5个因素;其次通过模型得出的脱钩系数运用构建四象限法评价"十二五"期间中国30个省市脱钩空间差异,研究各省市氮氧化物减排表现、分析减排潜力和减排影响因素,为国家"十三五"制定差异化的区域氮氧化物减排目标和寻找多元化的氮氧化物减排途径提供有益参考.研究结果表明:经济增长是促进氮氧化物排放量增加的决定因素,能源强度降低是抑制氮氧化物增排的决定因素,经济结构优化和能源结构调整具有较大促进氮氧化物减排潜力;中国氮氧化物排放与经济增长脱钩空间分异明显,大部分省市经济发展与氮氧化物排放处于脱钩状态,部分省市弱脱钩状态.同时,中国氮氧化物排放与经济增长脱钩系数呈现逐年上升趋势,2010—2015年中国各省市氮氧化物排放脱钩空间分布由较弱、中脱钩为主至中、较强脱钩为主再到较强脱钩为主,呈现区域间"异质化"和区域内"均质化"的趋势.国家氮氧化物后续减排任务应多分解在中脱钩或弱脱钩(减排潜力大)省市,对相邻的省份制定协同减排计划,且主要通过提高能源利用效率、同时优化经济结构和能源消费结构实现其最优减排.     

非热强介质等离子体反应器用于臭味气体的分解

对非热强介质等离子体反应器用于臭味气体———氨、硫化氢、甲基硫醇的分解进行了试验研究。研究了施加电压、停留时间、初始浓度对臭味气体分解率的影响 ,并对氨的分解产物进行了初步分析。结果表明 ,在这 3种气体的初始体积分数分别为 2 5× 10 -6和 5 0× 10 -6的条件下 ,当施加电压为 16kV、停留时间为 0 .2 3s时 ,氨的分解率达到 97%以上 ;当停留时间为0 .2 3s时 ,硫化氢和甲基硫醇分别在 10kV和 8kV时达到 10 0 %的分解。     

Short-term wind speed forecasting based on random forest model combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition and improved harmony search algorithm

ABSTRACT

Wind speed forecasting plays an important role in power grid dispatching management. This article proposes a short-term wind speed forecasting method based on random forest model combining ensemble empirical modal decomposition and improved harmony search algorithm. First, the initial wind speed data set is decomposed into several ensemble empirical mode functions by EEMD, then feature extraction of each sub-modal IMF is performed using fast Fourier transform to solve the cycle of each sub-modal IMF. Next, combining the high-performance parameter optimization ability of the improved harmony search algorithm, two optimal parameters of random forest model, number of decision trees, and number of split features are determined. Finally, the random forest model is used to forecast the processing results of each submodal IMF. The proposed model is applied to the simulation analysis of historical wind data of Chaoyang District, Liaoning Province from April 27, 2015 to May 22, 2015. To illustrate the suitability and superiority of the EEMD-RF-IHS model, three types of models are used for comparison: single models including ANN, SVM, RF; EMD combination models including EMD-ANN, EMD-SVM, EMD-RF; EEMD combination models including EEMD-ANN, EEMD-SVM, EEMD-RF. The analysis results of evaluation indicators show that the proposed model can effectively forecast short-term wind data with high stability and precision, providing a reference for forecasting application in other industry fields.     

Catalytic decomposition of hydrocarbon into hydrogen and carbon in a spouted-bed reactor as the second-stage reactor of a plastic recycling process

A two-stage process for the chemical recycling of plastics is proposed. In this process, which consists of two reactors, plastics are converted into hydrogen and carbon. In the first reactor, plastic chips are thermally decomposed into hydrocarbons. In the second reactor, the hydrocarbons formed in the first reactor are catalytically decomposed into carbon and hydrogen. In this study, in order to obtain basic data for the second reactor, propene was catalytically decomposed in a laboratory-scale spouted-bed reactor (600mm high, 21.6mm internal diameter, made of SUS304). The effect of the type of spouting medium used on the decomposition behavior of propene was investigated using four types of spouting medium (nickel-plated -alumina, palladium-plated -alumina, nickel-impregnated -alumina, and -alumina). The nickel-impregnated -alumina gave the best propene conversion and hydrogen yield.     

Lowest Effect Levels of Lead and Mercury on Decomposition of Mor Layer Samples in a Long-Term Experiment

Indications of possible negative effects of lead (Pb) and mercury(Hg) on microbial respiration in Southern Swedish forest humus layers led to experiments on dose-response relationships by additions of metal salts in the laboratory. Respiration rates andweight loss due to decomposition of organic material were measured. For relevance to field situations metal doses were low,the time span was long, 550 days including freeze storage, and microbial activity was kept up by plant litter additions. We looked for effects of Pb and Hg at levels moderately elevated above the Southern Swedish reference, as well as combined effectsof Pb + Hg. A reduction in respiration and decomposition of10% was found at about 225–245 g g^-1 of total Pb, i.e. ata Pb level elevated 3.5 times. Although small effects of Hg werefound even at the lowest dose level, 10% inhibition of microbialactivity appeared temporarily at about 2–3 g g^-1 of total Hg, i. e. at 6–8 times the reference level. There were nolong-term additive effects of Pb and Hg on decomposition. Type of anion had a strong influence on the test, chlorides of Pbbeing more toxic than nitrates. Long-term monitoring and maintenance of microbial activity during the experiment were prerequisites for the occurrence of effects at low metal levels.     

数据安全新思路

利用小波的时频局部化的特征,将信息的加密过程由传统的时域中进行改为在时域和频域中进行,达到信息加密和增强信息安全性的目的。采用两种方法实现信息的加密与解密的过程,一种是将明文保存为图像文件格式,对图像文件进行小波的分解与重构,实现信息的加密与解密;另一种是将明文数值化为一个系数矩阵,对数值矩阵进行小波的分解与重构,实现信息的加密与解密。通过小波分解过程进行加密,小波的重构过程进行解密,改变了传统的在空域中通过一系列的移位、迭代和置换的方式进行的加密过程,因此也不能通过传统的解密方式进行解密,增强了信息的安全性。由于小波的多样性,不同的小波变换得到的结果也会不同,增加了解密的难度,保证了数据的安全。     

Decomposition Analysis of Sectoral Energy Use in Beijing （1981-2005） Using the LMDI Method

This paper aims to identify the main driving force for changes of total primary energy consumption in Beijing during the period of 1981-2005. Sectoral energy use was investigated when regional economic structure changed significantly. The changes of total primary energy consumption in Beijing are decomposed into production effects, structural effects and intensity effects using the additive version of the logarithmic mean Divisia index （LMDI） method. Aggregate decomposition analysis showed that the major contributor of total effect was made by the production effect followed by the intensity effect, and the structural effect was relatively insignificant. The total and production effects were all positive. In contrast, the structural effect and intensity effect were all negative. Sectoral decomposition investigation indicated that the most effective way to slow down the growth rate of total primary energy consumption （TPEC） was to reduce the production of the energy-intensive industrial sectors and improving industrial energy intensity. The results show that in this period, Beijing＇s economy has undergone a transformation from an industrial to a service economy. However, the structures of sectoral energy use have not been changed yet, and energy demand should be increasing until the energy-intensive industrial production to be reduced and energy intensity of the region reaches a peak. As sequence energy consumption data of sub-sectors are not available, only the fundamental three sectors are considered： agriculture, industry and service. However, further decomposition into secondary and tertiary sectors is definitely needed for detailed investigations.