Short-term wind speed forecasting based on random forest model combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition and improved harmony search algorithm

ABSTRACT

Wind speed forecasting plays an important role in power grid dispatching management. This article proposes a short-term wind speed forecasting method based on random forest model combining ensemble empirical modal decomposition and improved harmony search algorithm. First, the initial wind speed data set is decomposed into several ensemble empirical mode functions by EEMD, then feature extraction of each sub-modal IMF is performed using fast Fourier transform to solve the cycle of each sub-modal IMF. Next, combining the high-performance parameter optimization ability of the improved harmony search algorithm, two optimal parameters of random forest model, number of decision trees, and number of split features are determined. Finally, the random forest model is used to forecast the processing results of each submodal IMF. The proposed model is applied to the simulation analysis of historical wind data of Chaoyang District, Liaoning Province from April 27, 2015 to May 22, 2015. To illustrate the suitability and superiority of the EEMD-RF-IHS model, three types of models are used for comparison: single models including ANN, SVM, RF; EMD combination models including EMD-ANN, EMD-SVM, EMD-RF; EEMD combination models including EEMD-ANN, EEMD-SVM, EEMD-RF. The analysis results of evaluation indicators show that the proposed model can effectively forecast short-term wind data with high stability and precision, providing a reference for forecasting application in other industry fields.     

Catalytic decomposition of hydrocarbon into hydrogen and carbon in a spouted-bed reactor as the second-stage reactor of a plastic recycling process

A two-stage process for the chemical recycling of plastics is proposed. In this process, which consists of two reactors, plastics are converted into hydrogen and carbon. In the first reactor, plastic chips are thermally decomposed into hydrocarbons. In the second reactor, the hydrocarbons formed in the first reactor are catalytically decomposed into carbon and hydrogen. In this study, in order to obtain basic data for the second reactor, propene was catalytically decomposed in a laboratory-scale spouted-bed reactor (600mm high, 21.6mm internal diameter, made of SUS304). The effect of the type of spouting medium used on the decomposition behavior of propene was investigated using four types of spouting medium (nickel-plated -alumina, palladium-plated -alumina, nickel-impregnated -alumina, and -alumina). The nickel-impregnated -alumina gave the best propene conversion and hydrogen yield.     

Lowest Effect Levels of Lead and Mercury on Decomposition of Mor Layer Samples in a Long-Term Experiment

Indications of possible negative effects of lead (Pb) and mercury(Hg) on microbial respiration in Southern Swedish forest humus layers led to experiments on dose-response relationships by additions of metal salts in the laboratory. Respiration rates andweight loss due to decomposition of organic material were measured. For relevance to field situations metal doses were low,the time span was long, 550 days including freeze storage, and microbial activity was kept up by plant litter additions. We looked for effects of Pb and Hg at levels moderately elevated above the Southern Swedish reference, as well as combined effectsof Pb + Hg. A reduction in respiration and decomposition of10% was found at about 225–245 g g^-1 of total Pb, i.e. ata Pb level elevated 3.5 times. Although small effects of Hg werefound even at the lowest dose level, 10% inhibition of microbialactivity appeared temporarily at about 2–3 g g^-1 of total Hg, i. e. at 6–8 times the reference level. There were nolong-term additive effects of Pb and Hg on decomposition. Type of anion had a strong influence on the test, chlorides of Pbbeing more toxic than nitrates. Long-term monitoring and maintenance of microbial activity during the experiment were prerequisites for the occurrence of effects at low metal levels.     

数据安全新思路

利用小波的时频局部化的特征,将信息的加密过程由传统的时域中进行改为在时域和频域中进行,达到信息加密和增强信息安全性的目的。采用两种方法实现信息的加密与解密的过程,一种是将明文保存为图像文件格式,对图像文件进行小波的分解与重构,实现信息的加密与解密;另一种是将明文数值化为一个系数矩阵,对数值矩阵进行小波的分解与重构,实现信息的加密与解密。通过小波分解过程进行加密,小波的重构过程进行解密,改变了传统的在空域中通过一系列的移位、迭代和置换的方式进行的加密过程,因此也不能通过传统的解密方式进行解密,增强了信息的安全性。由于小波的多样性,不同的小波变换得到的结果也会不同,增加了解密的难度,保证了数据的安全。     

氟里昂12(CCl2F2)燃烧分解催化剂性能的研究

本文对贵金属、氧化物和复合氧化物体系催化剂上氟里昂_(12)(F_(12))燃烧分解反应进行了活性评价和稳定性研究.结果表明:TiO_2,ZrO_2/TiO_2催化剂对氟里昂_(12)燃烧分解反应具有良好的低温催化活性和较好的稳定性,ZrO_2/TiO_2催化剂具有一定的臭氧-催化氧化活性     

江苏、安徽能源强度比较分析与启示

能源在社会经济发展中具有重要作用。随着能源消耗量剧增，能源供需矛盾、环境问题日益突出，研究区域能源强度变化具有重要的现实意义。采用Laspeyres因素分解法，定量分析江苏省和安徽省的产业结构和产业效率对能源强度的影响。研究发现：（1）安徽省的能源强度高于江苏省的能源强度，不过差距在逐渐变小，利用重标极差法预测未来两省的能源强度会逐渐趋同；（2）江苏省的产业结构发展有减小能源强度的趋势，不过作用过程有波动；产业效率有利于降低能源强度；（3）安徽省的产业结构有助于增加能源强度，作用趋势还在增大，产业效率有利于降低能源强度，降低作用大于江苏省。因此本文提出目前同样的投入应该偏向欠发达地区或能源强度较高地区，这有利于快速取得降低能源强度的成效.     

Decomposition Analysis of Sectoral Energy Use in Beijing （1981-2005） Using the LMDI Method

This paper aims to identify the main driving force for changes of total primary energy consumption in Beijing during the period of 1981-2005. Sectoral energy use was investigated when regional economic structure changed significantly. The changes of total primary energy consumption in Beijing are decomposed into production effects, structural effects and intensity effects using the additive version of the logarithmic mean Divisia index （LMDI） method. Aggregate decomposition analysis showed that the major contributor of total effect was made by the production effect followed by the intensity effect, and the structural effect was relatively insignificant. The total and production effects were all positive. In contrast, the structural effect and intensity effect were all negative. Sectoral decomposition investigation indicated that the most effective way to slow down the growth rate of total primary energy consumption （TPEC） was to reduce the production of the energy-intensive industrial sectors and improving industrial energy intensity. The results show that in this period, Beijing＇s economy has undergone a transformation from an industrial to a service economy. However, the structures of sectoral energy use have not been changed yet, and energy demand should be increasing until the energy-intensive industrial production to be reduced and energy intensity of the region reaches a peak. As sequence energy consumption data of sub-sectors are not available, only the fundamental three sectors are considered： agriculture, industry and service. However, further decomposition into secondary and tertiary sectors is definitely needed for detailed investigations.     

奥克托今在丙酮中的热安全性研究

奥克托今(HMX)作为爆速高和耐热性好的炸药被广泛应用,其制备提纯工艺均在丙酮中进行。为研究HMX在丙酮中的热安全性,用差示扫描量热-热重(DSC-TG)同步热分析仪研究HMX的热分解过程。测得升温速率为5,10,15,20℃/min的DSC和热重-微商热重法(TG-DTG)曲线,并得出分解峰温分别为279.8,282.5,284.5和288.8℃。用自行设计的临界爆温测试装置,通过小容量法测定HMX、丙酮以及HMX的丙酮溶液的临界爆炸温度。结果表明,在试验条件下,HMX的丙酮溶液的临界爆炸温度高于纯HMX的临界爆炸温度,说明丙酮抑制了HMX的热分解反应,当HMX溶液质量分数为10%时,临界爆炸温度最高,热安全性最好。     

富氧条件下等离子体协同改性NaY分子筛催化分解NO_x研究

用不同浓度的Cu、Ce和La离子交换Na Y分子筛,对比了不同改性条件下等离子体协同分解NO_x的性能.实验结果表明:Cu是NO_x催化分解的主要活性组分,对于8%Cu-Na Y催化剂,当放电电压为10 k V,放电功率为7.6 W时,NO_x转化率可达46.3%,反应产物中没有NO_2,只有11 ppm的N_2O.Ce的加入可以有效提高催化剂催化活性,对于5%Ce-8%Cu-NaY催化剂,当放电电压为7.8 kV,功率为3.6 W时,NO_x转化率可达67.3%.La的加入同样可以使催化剂活性上升,但不同La含量催化剂的NO_x转化率相差较小.     

Mercury adsorption characteristics of HBr-modified fly ash in an entrained-flow reactor

In this study, the mercury adsorption characteristics of HBr-modified fly ash in an entrained-flow reactor were investigated through thermal decomposition methods. The results show that the mercury adsorption performance of the HBr-modified fly ash was enhanced significantly. The mercury species adsorbed by unmodified fly ash were HgCl₂, HgS and HgO. The mercury adsorbed by HBr-modified fly ash, in the entrained-flow reactor, existed in two forms, HgBr₂ and HgO, and the HBr was the dominant factor promoting oxidation of elemental mercury in the entrained-flow reactor. In the current study, the concentration of HgBr₂ and HgO in ash from the fine ash vessel was 4.6 times greater than for ash from the coarse ash vessel. The fine ash had better mercury adsorption performance than coarse ash, which is most likely due to the higher specific surface area and longer residence time.