基于社会科学统计程序(SPSS)回归性分析的尾矿库事故预测模型

基于社会科学统计程序(SPSS)软件的分析功能,对调查研究中获取的尾矿库案例进行数据提炼和分类编码,找出相关因子并进行回归性分析。最终目的是找出尾矿库各个因素的内在联系,建立简单的尾矿库事故模型,从而可以初步预测尾矿库事故发生的可能性。该预测模型为尾矿库事故的研究提出了新方法,对于防灾减灾以及保护人民生命财产安全起到了积极作用。     

The 2004 Madrid train bombings: an analysis of pre-hospital management

The terrorist train bombings in Madrid, Spain, on 11 March 2004 triggered a swift and massive medical response. This paper analyses the pre-hospital response to the attacks to gain insight into current trends in disaster management among Madrid's Emergency Medical Services (EMSs). To this end, the existing emergency planning framework is described, the basic structures of the different EMSs are presented, and the attacks are briefly depicted before consideration is given to pre-hospital management. Finally, an explanation of the main underlying misconceptions in emergency planning and management in Madrid is provided to aid understanding of the origins of some of the problems detected during the response. These are attributable mainly to inappropriate planning rather than to mistakes in field-level decision-making. By contrast, many of the successes are attributable to individual initiatives by frontline medics who compensated for the lack of clear command by senior managers by making adaptive and flexible decisions.     

煤矿安全生产中人的行为影响因子系统动力学(SD)仿真分析

在构建影响人的安全行为因素因果关系的基础上,运用系统动力学(SD)理论和方法,对影响人的安全行为关键因素进行动态预测,并通过仿真计算、对比分析安全投入增加对系统安全水平的影响。应用该方法建立的煤矿生产中人的安全行为指标水平模型,以求证安全投入与人的安全行为水平的相关性,为煤矿安全管理决策提供一种新的思路,亦有助于政府和煤矿企业科学地明确安全投入方向,降低人因事故率,提高煤矿生产的安全水平。     

基于GIS/AHP集成的洪水灾害综合风险评价——以淮河流域为例

根据影响洪水灾害风险的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境稳定性与承灾体易损性,以淮河流域为示范研究区,以县为行政单元,综合考虑降雨、径流量、河流、地形、人口、经济等指标,基于GIS与AHP集成方法得到了淮河流域洪水灾害危险性评价图和淮河流域洪水灾害脆弱性评价图,并采用"加"模型计算公式得到了洪水灾害综合风险评价图,进行了相应的结果分析。     

道路交叉口冲突仿真分析

针对基于事故的安全评价在数量、周期、均值、随机性等方面以及基于现场冲突观测识别在主观性、可靠性、成本、指标全面性等方面存在的问题,提出基于冲突仿真的交叉口安全预评价分析方法:研究利用安全间接分析(SSAM)模型分析冲突的基本原理和冲突时间(TTC)、遭遇时间(PET)等分析指标的计算方法;以及利用VISSIM仿真软件进行冲突仿真分析应注意的策略。以邢台市某道路交叉口安全改善方案为例,进行改善前后冲突仿真的比较分析。研究结果表明,改善后在通行效率显著提升的同时,交叉、追尾、车道变换冲突的数量均显著减少,TTC值有所增加,说明改善后安全程度有所提升。笔者提出的方法和案例应用为道路交叉口改善措施的安全预评价提供了一种分析途径和有益借鉴。     

湖北省"两圈"生物资源生态足迹动态分析

本文对1998-2008年湖北省武汉城市圈和鄂西生态文化旅游圈的生物资源生态足迹及其组成、人均生物资源生态足迹、生物资源生态承载量和生物资源生态赤字(盈余)进行了动态分析.研究表明,武汉城市圈生物资源生态足迹组成以耕地为主,其他生态生产性用地的足迹比例较小,各市州生物资源生态足迹整体呈现逐年增加的趋势,人均生物资源生态足迹小于省均值,生物资源生态承载量先升高后降低,各市州生物资源生态承载量由大到小排序为:黄冈、孝感、武汉、咸宁、天门、黄石、仙桃、鄂州、潜江,生态赤字呈增大趋势;鄂西生态圈除神农架外其他各市州的生物资源生态足迹均较大,林地足迹占主要地位,其总量对全省的贡献较大;人均生物资源生态足迹大于省均值,生物资源生态承载量呈增高趋势,各市州由大到小排序为:宜昌、十堰、襄樊、荆州、恩施、随州、荆门、神农架,该圈一直保持很高的生物资源生态盈余,但盈余值有减小的趋势.     

Concentrations of organochlorine pesticides and 2,4,6-trichloroanisole in cork bark

Organochlorine pesticides are persistent lipophilic organic pollutants and tend to accumulate in growing plants. During growth, cork is in contact with the open air for long periods (9-12 years). Owing to the previous widespread use of organochlorine pesticides and their high persistence in the environment, there is a risk that residues of such pesticides may be present in cork.In this study, the concentrations of 14 organochlorine pesticides—all of which are indicators of environmental pollution—were analyzed in cork bark samples from three regions in Spain and one in Portugal. In addition, the concentrations of 2,4,6-trichlorophenol (TCP) and 2,4,6-trichloroanisole (TCA) were also analyzed.Our results show only very low concentrations of lindane, γ-HCH (<2.6 ng g⁻¹) and its byproducts α-HCH (<3.5 ng g⁻¹) and β-HCH (<0.6 ng g⁻¹).Among the DDT and its metabolites, only two were found: p,p′-DDT was found in a cork sample from Extremadura (0.1 ng g⁻¹) and p,p′-DDE was present at a maximum concentration of 2.9 ng g⁻¹ in a cork sample from Castile-La Mancha. However, all concentrations were well below the legal limit established by Regulation (EC) No. 396/2005 (10 ng g⁻¹ in foodstuffs). We can conclude, therefore, that the cork samples we studied complied with food safety standards.     

土著致病菌及其胞外物在生物防治斑马贝中的作用

无脊椎动物斑马贝(Dreissena polymorpha) 的生物污损造成了巨大的经济损失,而应用从斑马贝体内分离出的土著菌株及其体外代谢产物对它进行生物防治是一种经济效益显著且对环境友好的方法.本文主要报导从斑马贝体内分离的土著菌株中筛选出致病菌并研究该细菌及其代谢产物对它的控制作用.在三十多种土著菌株中,中间气单胞菌( Aeromonas media),维罗纳气单胞菌(A. veronii),杀鲑气单胞菌杀鲑亚种(A. salmonicida subsp. salmonicida)和腐败希瓦氏菌(Shewanella putrefaciens)是幼体斑马贝的致命致病菌.当接种量为每只斑马贝107 个细菌时,接种中间气单胞菌、杀鲑气单胞菌杀鲑亚种和腐败希瓦氏菌的5 d 死亡率为100%,而维罗纳气单胞菌为65%.通过扫描电镜(SEM)发现,垂死的斑马贝肌肉组织被破坏并含有大量的细菌.4种细菌代谢产物的不同组分表现出对斑马贝不同的致死效果,在所研究的3种不同Mr组分中(Mr<5×103,5×103～10×103及>10×103),>10 ×103组分具有最高致死率.这些结果为控制贝类无脊椎动物的生物污损提供了新方法. 图4 参24     

Adsorption of As(III) on chitosan-Fe-crosslinked complex (Ch-Fe)

It was reported the adsorption of As(III) on the surface of the chitosan-Fe-crosslinked complex. Theoretical correlation of the experimental equilibrium adsorption data for As(III)/Ch-Fe system is best explained by the non-linearized form Langmuir-Freundlich isotherm model. At optimum conditions, pH 9.0, the maximum adsorption capacity, calculated using the Langmuir-Freundlich isotherm model was 13.4 mg g⁻¹. The adsorption kinetics of As(III) onto Ch-Fe are described by the pseudo-first-order kinetic equation. The results of the Mössbauer spectroscopy showed that there is no redox process on the surface of the adsorbent.     

Comparision of the waterborne and dietary routes of exposure on the effects of Benzo(a)pyrene on biotransformation pathways in Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus)

BaP is one of the most studied PAH, due to its ubiquitous presence in aquatic environments and toxicity to aquatic organisms. The main goal of this study was to assess BaP effects in Nile Tilapia after waterborne and dietary exposures, through the evaluation of EROD and GST activities in liver, gills and intestine, and BaP metabolites in bile; and also to evaluate the usefulness of these commonly used biomarkers after two different routes of exposure. Waterborne exposure to BaP led to a significant induction of EROD in all tissues analyzed (644%, 1640% and 2880% in relation to solvent in liver, gill and intestine respectively) while in dietary exposures EROD was induced only in intestine (3143%) after exposure to high BaP concentrations. GST activities with CDNB were slightly induced in liver (40%) and in gill (66%) after water exposure to BaP, and in intestine after dietary exposure to low BaP concentrations (182%). BaP metabolites in bile increased after both exposure routes, and were highly correlated with EROD activity after water exposure. In summary, this work has shown that the effects of BaP on biotransformation pathways depend on the route of exposure. Moreover, barrier tissues like gills and intestine also have an important role in the first-pass metabolism of BaP, reducing the amount of parent compound that reaches the liver to be metabolized. For that reason, EROD activity as a biomarker of exposure should also be applied in extrahepatic organs, like gills and intestine, in monitoring studies. Biliary BaP type metabolites are good reflectors of contamination levels under both exposure routes, while GST activity with CDNB as substrate, as a phase II enzyme, does not seem a reliable biomarker of exposure to BaP regardless the route of exposure.