Estimating the spatio-temporal risk of disease epidemics using a bioclimatic niche model

There are presently few tools available for estimating epidemic risks from forest pathogens, and hence informing pro-active disease management. In this study we demonstrated that a bioclimatic niche model can be used to examine questions of epidemic risk in temperate eucalypt plantations. The bioclimatic niche model, CLIMEX, was used to identify regional variation in climate suitability for Mycosphaerella leaf disease (MLD), a major cause of foliage damage in temperate eucalypt plantations around the world. Using historical observations of MLD damage, we were able to convert the relative score of climatic suitability generated by CLIMEX into a severity ranking ranging from low to high, providing for the first time a direct link between risk and impact, and allowing us to explore disease severity in a way meaningful to forest managers. We determined that the ‘Compare Years’ function in CLIMEX could be used for site-specific risk assessment to identify severity, frequency and seasonality of MLD epidemics. We explored appropriate scales of risk assessment for forest managers. Applying the CLIMEX model of MLD using a 0.25° or coarser grid size to areas of sharp topographic relief frequently misrepresented the risk posed by MLD, because considerable variation occurred between individual forest sites encompassed within a single grid cell. This highlighted the need for site-specific risk assessment to address many questions pertinent to managing risk in plantations.     

木麻黄根区土壤理化特性及酶活性与青枯病发生关联分析

为探究木麻黄(Casuarina spp.)根区土壤理化特性及酶活性与青枯病发生的关系,进而为加强生物防治提供参考.选取位于广东省潮州市饶平县大埕镇、湛江市吴川市塘尾镇和湛江市徐闻县前山镇的3个木麻黄人工林为研究对象,在每个林分下分别设置3个样地,每个样地采集木麻黄青枯病感病植株和健康植株根区土壤各3份,共54个土壤样...     

Analysis of Total Work Inability in Poland in 2000 and 2001 According to Age,Disease Diagnosis and Occupation

This study was to determine the main health-related reasons, age and occupation of those who took ear retirement due to total work inability. This was done through an analysis of the data from Poland’s Soci Insurance Institution (ZUS) from 2000 and 2001. An analysis of these data showed an increase in the numb of certificates confirming total inability to work in people over 40 years old. Over 50% of certificates wo, were issued to workers in 2 age-groups: 45–49 and 50–54.

Diseases of the circulatory system, musculoskeletal system and connective tissue as well as mental and behavioural disorders are the main causes of early inability to work. Approximately 70% of people who obtained certificates confirming total inability to work had blue- and blue-and-white-collar jobs.     

2000-2009年全国职业中毒状况规律分析和对策探讨

职业中毒是我国的主要职业病之一,严重影响着劳动者的健康和社会的和谐稳定。根据卫生部2000-2009年公布的职业病统计数据,分析总结我国职业中毒的发生规律。结果表明：职业中毒是仅次于尘肺病的第二大类职业病。职业中毒占职业病总数的12.8%-18%,在职业中毒病例中,急性职业中毒占22.4%-39.6%,慢性职业中毒占60.4%-77.6%。职业中毒总人数变化从2000年到2005年较平稳,从2006年起,呈波浪形上升趋势,但其增幅远小于职业病总数和尘肺病新发病例人数的增幅。其中,急性职业中毒总人数略有下降趋势,慢性职业中毒总人数呈波浪形上升趋势。引起急性职业中毒占前两位的化学毒物主要是一氧化碳和硫化氢,引起慢性职业中毒占前两位的化学毒物主要是铅及其化合物和苯。中小企业职业中毒发生率高。建议各级职能部门重点加强相关行业的监管,尤其是其中的中小企业的监管;履行指导的职责,加强有效果的安全教育和培训;同时加强职业监控监护。     

Household incidence of pollution control policies: A robust welfare analysis using general equilibrium effects

This study assesses the incidence of pollution control policies on households. In contrast to previous studies, we employ an integrated framework combining a multisector general equilibrium model with a stochastic dominance analysis using household-level data. We consider three policy instruments in a domestic emission trading system: (i) an output-based allocation (OBA) of permits; (ii) the use of the proceeds of permit sales to reduce payroll taxes (RPT); (iii) and the use of these proceeds to reduce consumption taxes instead (UCS). The general equilibrium results suggest that the return to capital is more negatively affected than the wage rate in all simulations, since polluting industries are capital intensive. Abstracting from pollution externalities, the dominance analysis suggests that all three policies have a normatively robust negative (positive) impact on welfare (poverty). Formal dominance tests indicate that RPT first-order welfare dominates OBA over all values of household incomes. UCS also first-order poverty dominates RPT for any choice of poverty line below $CAN 18,600, and poverty dominates for any poverty line (and thus welfare dominates) at the second order. Finally, while the three pollution control policies do not have a numerically large impact on inequality (in comparison to the base run), statistical tests indicate that inequality increases significantly more with OBA and RPT than with UCS.     

Modelling landscape effects on density-contact rate relationships of deer in eastern Alberta: Implications for chronic wasting disease

Managing wildlife diseases requires an understanding of disease transmission, which may be strongly affected by host population density and landscape features. Transmission models are typically fit from time-series disease prevalence data and modelled based on how the contact rate among hosts is affected by density, which is often assumed to be a linear (density-dependent transmission) or constant (frequency-dependent transmission) relationship. However, long-term time-series data is unavailable for emerging diseases, and this approach cannot account for independent effects of landscape. We developed a mechanistic model based on ecological data to empirically derive the contact rate-density relationship in white-tailed and mule deer in an enzootic region of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in Alberta, Canada and to determine whether it was affected by landscape. Using data collected from aerial surveys and GPS-telemetry, we developed empirical relationships predicting deer group size, home range size, and habitat selection to iteratively simulate deer distributions across a range of densities and landscapes. We calculated a relative measure of total per-capita contact rate, which is proportional to the number of other deer contacted per individual per unit time, for each distribution as the sum of pairwise contact rates between a target deer and all other individuals. Each pairwise contact rate was estimated from an empirical relationship developed from GPS-telemetry data predicting pairwise contact rates as a function of home range overlap and landscape structure. Total per-capita contact rates increased as a saturating function of density, supporting a transmission model intermediate between density- and frequency-dependent transmission. This pattern resulted from group sizes that reached an asymptote with increasing deer density, although this relationship was mediated by tree and shrub coverage in the landscape, such that in heavily wooded areas, the contact rate saturated at much lower densities. These results suggest that CWD management based on herd reductions, which require a density-dependent contact rate to be effective, may have variable effects on disease across a single management region. The novel mechanistic approach we employed for estimating effects of density and landscape on transmission is a powerful complement to typical data-fitting approaches for modelling disease transmission.     

The landscape epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease in South Africa: A spatially explicit multi-agent simulation

This study aimed at understanding how landscape heterogeneity influences outbreaks of contagious diseases in southern Africa. Landscape attributes influence patterns of movement and behaviour of animal hosts, virus spread and survival, as well as land use practices. A multi-agent simulation was developed to represent the spatial and temporal dynamics of pathogens between human-livestock and wildlife interfaces at the fringe of large wildlife conservation areas. The model represents the three main elements associated with epidemics - populations, space, and time - to simulate direct contacts between wildlife and livestock. The dynamics of these populations emerge from interactions between agents and the landscape. The model was calibrated to represent the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease through direct contact at the border of the Kruger National Park in South Africa. In the region, African buffaloes (Syncerus caffer) act as reservoirs of the virus and spread the infection to domestic cattle bordering the park. We tested the sensitivity of various factors influencing contact rate between buffaloes and cattle, and thus the risk of foot-and-mouth disease transmission. Results show that cattle-buffalo contacts mostly depend on the range of displacements of cattle and buffaloes, as influenced by the landscape configuration, and on the number of fence breakages multiplied by the time between breakage and repair. Contacts take place not only close to water-points but also in grazing areas, within an area up to 6 km from the fence.     

内蒙高腐殖酸地下水中碘的分布特征与IDD病的关系

为探讨碘在高腐植酸地下水中的分布特征 ,研究内蒙古河套平原地区 51份水样 .分析结果显示 ,水质偏碱 (平均值 pH=7.91 ) ,水中腐植酸和 COD含量均高 ,地下水类型属于 HCO₃-Na和 HCO₃-Cl- Na型 .在这种高还原型盐水环境中水碘平均浓度达到 430 μg/L,超过了水碘安全浓度范围的上限 ( 5～ 200μg/L) .相关分析结果显示 ,水碘浓度与其它因素的相关顺序是 :COD>荧光强度 >电导率 >HCO^-₃>Cl^->Na⁺>pH>As>井深 .当地地下水中碘的分布呈现出碘浓度随腐植酸含量和盐渍化程度增加而增加的趋势 .由于这些因素的综合作用 ,当地没有发生高碘型碘缺乏病 ( IDD)的大面积流行 .     

生物肥料对香蕉枯萎病及土壤微生物的影响

香蕉枯萎病是真菌引起的一种土传病害,它的蔓延已经严重影响到香蕉产业的正常发展.将腐熟的有机肥与3种生防细菌(枯草芽胞杆菌、胶质芽胞杆菌和巨大芽胞杆菌)结合,组合成生物复混肥和生物有机肥,将它们施用在香蕉上,研究其对枯萎病病害防治效果.盆栽香蕉试验结果显示,2种肥料不仅能抑制香蕉枯萎病(防病效果分别为61.5%和53.8%),同时也引起土壤微生物群落发生变化,真菌数量明显下降,放线菌明显升高,细菌变化较小.通过相关分析发现,生物肥料中3种生防细菌总数与土壤中枯萎菌和普通真菌呈显著负相关,而与防病效果呈极显著正相关,有机肥中细菌与土壤细菌和放线菌含量也呈显著正相关.     

Relationship between neuropsychological tests and driver's license renewal tests in Parkinson's disease

Objective: To determine whether the standard Spanish driving test (ASDE test) was able to identify patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) at risk of unsafe driving and to examine the relationship between the ASDE test and the Useful Field of View (UFOV) as well as with a battery of neuropsychological tests in drivers with PD.

Methods: Thirty-seven patients with PD and 33 controls matched by age and education level were included in an observational study. All participants were active drivers and patients with PD underwent study procedures after taking the medication in the “on” period. Subjects with a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score ≤ 24 were excluded. Neuropsychological tests (Repeatable Battery for Neuropsychological Status [RBANS], Trail Making Test [TMT-A and -B], and Block Design test), driving performance tests (ASDE Driver Test and UFOV), and daytime sleepiness (Epworth Sleepiness Scale) were assessed.

Results: The PD group performed significantly worse than healthy controls in the ASDE Motor Coordination tests. No significant differences were observed in anticipation speed, multiple reaction time, concentrated attention, and resistance to monotony. All participants successfully completed the UFOV tests. Statistically significant differences between patients with PD and controls were found in processing speed (UFOV1; P =.03) and more patients with PD were found in the categories of higher driving risk levels (P =.03). In addition, patients with PD showed worse scores than healthy controls in visuospatial capacities (Line Orientation), psychomotor speed (Coding and TMT-A), memory (List Recognition, Story Recall), and executive function (TMT-B). The driving tests (ASDE and UFOV) showed a low sensitivity and a high specificity but a higher percentage of patients in the PD group failed in multiple reaction time, concentrated attention, and resistance to monotony. In addition, 18.9% of patients with PD showed a cutoff of 4 for UFOV risk. In the discriminant analysis, Line Orientation (visuospatial/constructive domain) and Figure Recall (delayed memory) were found to be statistically significant with a rate of correct classification of unsafe drivers with PD of 78.2%. In addition, normal results on the Line Orientation item were associated with a 1.5 times higher probability of non-risky driving in the multivariate analysis.

Conclusions: At early stages of the disease, about 19% of patients with PD showed difficulties that may affect their driving capabilities. Line Orientation and Figure Recall are useful to alert clinicians to the risk of unsafe driving. For this reason, patients with PD should be evaluated for driving abilities more regularly to determine the extent of deficits that may influence driving performance.