Cluster detection using Bayes factors from overparameterized cluster models

In this paper, we consider the use of a partition model to estimate regional disease rates and to detect spatial clusters. Formal inference regarding the number of partitions (or clusters) can be obtained with a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. As an alternative, we consider the ability of models with a fixed, but overly large, number of partitions to estimate regional disease rates and to provide informal inferences about the number and locations of clusters using local Bayes factors. We illustrate and compare these two approaches using data on leukemia incidence in upstate New York and data on breast cancer incidence in Wisconsin.     

Compound contamination and secondary ecological effects of Cd and As in soil-alfalfa ecosystems

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Phytotoxicity assessment of phenanthrene, pyrene and their mixtures by a soil-based seedling emergence test

Seedling emergence tests were conducted in a meadow brown soil using five plant species ( i. e., Chinese cabbage, green onion, tomato, turnip and wheat) to determine the phytotoxicity of phenanthrene, pyrene and their mixtures. The soil was amended with up to 1000mg/kg soil of phenanthrene or 600 mg/kg soil of pyrene. Seedling emergence and root growth were measured. The results indicated that root elongation was more sensitive than seedling emergence. Root length decreased with increasing phenanthrene or pyrene concentrations(p≤0.05). Phenanthrene was more phytotoxic than pyrene. The lowest observable adverse effect concentration(LOAEC) was 10mg/kg for phenanthrene when tested with green onion, and 50mg/kg for pyrene when tested with wheat. Among the five species, wheat was found to be the most sensitive. When amended jointly at or below their respective LOAEC, phenanthrene and pyrene produced a synergistic toxic effect.     

Effects of uncontrolled particulate matter release on precipitation under warfare conditions

This study has shown theoretical, observed and experimental evidence of pollutants released, transported and deposited during the Kosovo conflict in 1999 and their effects on precipitation in Serbia. The greatest bombardment of the chemical industry, oil refineries and fuel storage in Serbia which occurred during April, resulted in releases of many hazardous, toxic and cancerogenic substances. The number of April's days with precipitation greater or equal to 0.1 mm in 1999 are compared to those in the period from 1961 to 1990 registered at thirty meteorological stations in Serbia and especially at the Belgrade-Observatory station in the period from 1888 to 1995. The maximums of days with precipitation greater or equal to 0.1 mm were at the wider Belgrade area and at the central and southwestern parts of Serbia during April 1999. This is confirmed by using the Eta trajectory analysis.     

污染土壤修复效果评定方法的研究

在实施污染土壤修复的环境工程后,需要通过灵敏和有效的评定方法对污染土壤修复的效果进行评定.然而,单纯依靠化学方法进行污染土壤修复效果的评定,不能揭示土壤的整体质量特征,因此需要生态毒理方法作为相互补充的手段.本文概述了植物毒性评定法、陆生无脊椎动物评定法和土壤微生物评定法及其在污染土壤修复效果评定中的应用,并对污染土壤修复效果评定方法的发展前景进行展望.     

Toxic Effects of Crude Oil Combined with Oil Cleaner Simple Green on Yolk-sac Larvae and Adult Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss (4 pp)

Background, Goal and Scope Cleaner CRYSTAL Simple Green (SG) was used for the cleanup of the oil spill in the Baltic Sea near Lithuania in 2001. No scientific data are available on the effects and consequences of its application for local aquatic life. The aim of this study was to determine and compare sublethal effects of a) solution SG; b) crude oil alone; c) SG in combination with oil on rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss at different stages of its development in laboratory conditions.Methods Laboratory studies were performed on adult rainbow trout (4-day duration) and on yolk-sac larvae (25-day duration) evaluating their biological parameters. Concentrations of water-soluble and thin-dispersed fractions of petroleum hydrocarbons were measured using gas chromatography.Results and Discussion SG solution (0.5 mg/l) did not affect the survival of larvae and adult fish, and no significant changes were determined in respiratory parameters of the exposed larvae and adult fish. The most expressed alterations were found in morphological parameters (a decrease in the average body mass) of larvae and in haematological indices (a decrease in the leukocyte count) of adult fish at the end of the tests. Crude oil (1610 mg/l) did not affect the survival of adult fish during the 4-day exposure. An increase in larvae mortality rate (~ 36%) was recorded at the end of the tests. A significant decrease in the average body mass and heart rate of larvae as well as in gill ventilation frequency of larvae and adult fish were determined. SG combined with oil induced an increase in larval mortality  46% of individuals died at the end of the tests. No mortality was recorded in adult fish. The average body mass and heart rate of larvae were significantly decreased. Marked changes were also found in respiratory parameters (gill ventilation frequency of larvae and adult fish significantly decreased, while “coughing” rate increased). A 1-day, 2-day exposure of fish to SG combined with oil induced a significant decrease in the leukocyte count of adult fish, which was also determined at the end of the tests. The augmentation of adverse impact could be explained by the data obtained from our studies. When SG was added into dilution water with crude oil the concentration of petroleum hydrocarbons in the mixture increased 3 ~ 4.5 times after 24 h and 96 h, respectively. Conclusions The comparative study of the effects of crude oil alone, SG and SG combined with oil showed that their toxic effects on fish differed. Oil combined with SG was found to be more toxic to fish (larvae and adults) than SG alone and oil alone. Fish at early stages of development (yolk-sac larvae) were more sensitive to the effects of the compounds studied than adults.Recommendations and Outlook To diminish the negative impact of oil spill cleanup using chemicals on aquatic ecosystems, it is recommended to carry out more comprehensive studies of their effects and after-effects in laboratory conditions using a wide scale of local aquatic organisms. The selected species of the most sensitive aquatic organisms should include those which are unable to escape the impact of combined action of oil and cleaners. Special attention should be directed to the research of effects of these pollutants on studied organisms at their most sensitive stages of life (reproduction, hatching, early stages of development), as after-effects of exposure to pollutants may be observed in future generations.     

周边土地利用类型对川西平原西河氮素的影响

以四川盆地西部典型农业小流域为研究区,于2015年3月~2016年2月持续监测河流氮素（NH₄⁺-N、NO₃^--N、TN）和pH,结合遥感解译、地理信息系统和相关性分析等技术,探讨了监测断面周边流域土地利用类型与河流氮素及pH值的关系.结果表明,研究区河流氮素浓度的季节变化均表现为冬季最高（2.063mg/L）、春秋次之（1.536mg/L;1.432mg/L）、夏季最低（1.085mg/L）,同时月均NO₃^--N浓度（0.891mg/L）显著高于NH₄⁺-N（0.425mg/L）（P<0.01）,且NO₃^--N受到典型土地利用类型的显著影响.随着缓冲区半径的增加,耕地、城乡建设用地和水域的面积与NO₃^--N和TN浓度相关性逐渐降低,且在250m缓冲区内,城乡建设用地面积与NO₃^--N浓度呈显著正相关（P<0.05）;交通运输用地面积与所有氮组分的相关性均增大,且在750m缓冲区内,交通运输用地面积与NO₃^--N和TN浓度呈极显著正相关（P<0.01）.城乡建设用地和交通运输用地可能是河流NO₃^--N的"源".     

气候变化对太岳山中部油松单萜烯排放的影响

以全球气候模式NorESM1-M产生的RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0和RCP8.5气候变化情景数据和植物VOCs排放计算模型,模拟分析了气候变化对山西太岳山中部油松叶片单萜烯排放速率的影响.结果显示,未来气候变化影响下山西太岳山中部气温呈上升趋势,降水和辐射强度波动大.在RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景与基准情景下,油松单萜烯日排放速率在1~210d呈上升趋势,在210~365d呈下降趋势;在未来气候变化情景下比基准情景下高约2μg/（g·d）,在RCP8.5情景下最高;油松单萜烯日排放速率在未来气候变化情景与基准情景下差异在1~95d和296~365d较小,在96~295d波动较大.同时,相比基准情景,单萜烯日排放速率增幅在1~190d较高（增加12%~14%以上）,在191~315d较小（增加9%~13%以上）,在316~365d增加12%~18%以上,在RCP8.5情景下增幅最大（增加14%以上）.另外,油松单萜烯年排放速率在未来气候变化情景下比基准情景下平均高约1000μg/（g·a）以上,在RCP8.5情景下增幅最大（约12%）.说明,未来气候变化将使油松单萜烯排放速率增加.     

海州湾海洋牧场的长期环境效应研究

为探讨海州湾海洋牧场的长期环境效应,调查了2010~2015年牧场区和对照区沉积物总氮（TP）、总磷（TN）、水体活性磷酸盐（PO₄^3--P）、总溶解无机氮（DIN）含量,浮游植物和底栖动物的生物量.结果表明：人工鱼礁和贻贝、藻类的养殖造成了牧场区沉积物TN的累积,由2010年的266.62mg/kg增加至2015年的596.21mg/kg.浮游植物的高丰度加快了牧场区和对照区沉积物生物有效性磷的释放,造成TP含量呈减小趋势.牧场区由2010年的547.26mg/kg下降至2015年的317.25mg/kg,对照区由2010年的438.21mg/kg下降至2015年的342.97mg/kg.TP含量的空间分布由牧场区（547.26mg/kg） > 对照区（438.21mg/kg）转变为牧场区（317.25mg/kg） < 对照区（342.97mg/kg）.底栖动物对沉积物-水界面的营养盐交换通量的贡献较低,不是TP、TN变化的主导因素.牧场区DIN含量更易受到沉积物TN的影响,对照区PO₄^3--P的含量变化与TP保持了一致性.高溶解氧环境和高TN含量为牧场区提供了内源性的NH₄⁺-N.牧场区的N/P更接近最适值,海州湾海洋牧场建设取得了一定的生态修复效果.     

低影响开发对城市内涝节点雨洪控制效果研究——不同降雨特性下的情景模拟

以中国福建省福州市晋安区解放溪流域高密度居民住宅区为例,针对不同降雨重现期、降雨历时和雨峰系数的降雨情景,利用PCSWMM模型模拟该地区的雨洪情况,并运用模型的低影响开发（LID）模块,研究7种不同LID用地布局情景对研究区内涝节点的雨洪控制效果.情景模拟结果表明：在不同降雨情景下,各LID用地布局情景会使节点的洪峰流量减小、积水时间减少、积水深度变小;植被浅沟措施和植被浅沟&绿色屋顶组合措施会使节点SS峰值浓度高于现状用地,其余布设情景下,SS峰值浓度均减小.LID措施对节点流量和水质的控制效果在低降雨重现期和长降雨历时的降雨情景下较为有效.在单个LID布设情景中,渗透铺装措施控制最佳,而组合LID布设情景中,渗透铺装&植被浅沟&绿色屋顶是最佳的组合控制措施.研究结果可为南方城市居民区实施海绵城市建设提供技术支持,并为地方制定相关规范和标准提供参考和借鉴.