Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation,Population Affected and Property Damages in Corpus Christi1

Frey, Ashley E., Francisco Olivera, Jennifer L. Irish, Lauren M. Dunkin, James M. Kaihatu, Celso M. Ferreira, and Billy L. Edge, 2010. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation, Population Affected and Property Damages in Corpus Christi. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1–11. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00475.x Abstract: The effect of climate change on storm-surge flooding and the implications for population and structural damages on the city of Corpus Christi, Texas, was investigated. The study considered the influence of sea level rise and hurricane intensification, both influenced by climate change. Combinations of future carbon dioxide equivalent emission rates and carbon dioxide doubling sensitivities, based on findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were considered to define future climate scenarios. A suite of physically based numerical models for hurricane winds and the resulting waves, surge, and morphological change at the coast were used to determine flooded areas, population affected, and property damages for Hurricanes Bret, Beulah, and a version of Carla shifted south from its original track, under present and predicted future climate conditions. A comparison of the economic damages for current climate conditions and for the 2080s climate scenario shows that, for Carla (shifted), there will be an increase in the range of $270-1,100 million; for Beulah, of $100-390 million; and, for Bret, of $30-280 million. A similar analysis was also conducted for 2030s predicted climate scenarios. Overall, the comparison of the results for the different climate conditions indicates what the destructive consequences of climate change could be, even within the somewhat short time frame of 80 years considered here.     

稠油火驱开采技术节能减排效果分析

火驱作为稠油热采的有效接替技术,与注蒸汽开采技术相比,具有采收率高,能耗低,CO_2排放少的优势。文章从火驱驱油机理特征阐述了火驱与注蒸汽技术的不同点,从燃料开采能耗、热效率、注入剂资源、数据对比四个方面分析火驱比注蒸汽热效率高,无燃料开采成本,能耗是注蒸汽的50%;从CO_2气体排放方式和排放量对比可知,火驱能够减少温室气体排放,为油田节能减排、环保生产起到积极作用。     

Time needed to evacuate the Netherlands in the event of large-scale flooding: strategies and consequences

On 30 May 2008, the Government of the Netherlands informed the national parliament about the effectiveness of preventive evacuation of coastal and river areas in case of flooding. Analysis of a case study showed that it is impossible to evacuate coastal areas preventively within a 48-hour time span preceding a worst credible scenario flood caused by a storm surge. This fact illustrates the need for alternative evacuation strategies, such as vertical evacuation (evacuating to safe havens, inside the flood zone) or shelter-in-place (hiding), to reduce loss of life and the impact of the evacuation. This paper defines these strategies and demonstrates, by returning to the case study used by the Dutch government, that they require different measures, methods of approach, and crisis management processes. In addition, it addresses the need for flexible and scalable preparation so that after detecting and understanding the threat, authorities and citizens can make decisions about different evacuation strategies.     

回收与降解聚驱采出水的工艺探讨

含聚污水的处理是困扰石油行业的难题之一。基于聚驱采出水的特点,围绕聚合物的回收利用和降解理论及技术,探讨国内外含聚污水处理技术的研究与应用现状,对比分析现有处理技术存在的问题及适应性,提出采用化学混凝、气浮和水质改性等技术来回收利用PAM(聚丙烯酰胺)的新思路,打破了降解PAM的传统思维,同时分析含聚污水处理与利用技术的可行性与应用前景,有望实现含聚污水的循环利用。     

APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS TO FLOOD FORECASTING1

The main focus of this study was to compare the Grey model and several artificial neural network (ANN) models for real time flood forecasting, including a comparison of the models for various lead times (ranging from one to six hours). For hydrological applications, the Grey model has the advantage that it can easily be used in forecasting without assuming that forecast storm events exhibit the same stochastic characteristics as the storm events themselves. The major advantage of an ANN in rainfall‐runoff modeling is that there is no requirement for any prior assumptions regarding the processes involved. The Grey model and three ANN models were applied to a 2,509 km² watershed in the Republic of Korea to compare the results for real time flood forecasting with from one to six hours of lead time. The fifth‐order Grey model and the ANN models with the optimal network architectures, represented by ANN1004 (34 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), ANN1010 (40 input nodes, 25 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), and ANN1004T (14 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), were adopted to evaluate the effects of time lags and differences between area mean and point rainfall. The Grey model and the ANN models, which provided reliable forecasts with one to six hours of lead time, were calibrated and their datasets validated. The results showed that the Grey model and the ANN1010 model achieved the highest level of performance in forecasting runoff for one to six lead hours. The ANN model architectures (ANN1004 and ANN1010) that used point rainfall data performed better than the model that used mean rainfall data (ANN1004T) in the real time forecasting. The selected models thus appear to be a useful tool for flood forecasting in Korea.     

HEAVY RAINSTORMS IN CHICAGO: INCREASING FREQUENCY,ALTERED IMPACTS,AND FUTURE IMPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Operations of a dense raingage network in the Chicago area since 1989 provided data to assess the temporal and spatial distributions of heavy rainstorms. The 12‐year average was 4.4 storms per year, 40 percent more than in the 1948 to 1980 period, reflecting an ongoing Midwestern increase in heavy rains. The total rainfall from the 53 heavy rainstorms maximized over the city, reflecting previous observations that the influence of the city and Lake Michigan on the atmosphere causes an increase in heavy rains. Impacts from the record high number of eight storms in 2001 revealed that efforts to control flooding including the Deep Tunnel system, had reduced street and basement flooding in the moderate intensity storms, but the two most intense storms, each with 100‐year rainfall values, led to excessive flooding and a need to release flood waters into Lake Michigan. Results suggest continuing increases in the number of heavy rainstorms in future years, which has major implications for water managers in Chicago and elsewhere.     

Community-based Disaster Management During the 1997 Red River Flood in Canada

This paper examines the relationship between community preparedness and response to natural disaster and their level and pattern of community development. This is done by investigating preparation and response to the 1997 Red River Flood by three rural communities in Manitoba, Canada. The communities were selected because of their different ethnic mix and associated level and pattern of community development. The hypothesis was supported that the level and pattern of community development affect community capacity to respond to flooding. Communities characterised by higher levels of physical, human and social capital were better prepared and more effective responders to the flood. However, where the pattern of community development was characterised by high levels of social capital, decision-making processes were complicated.     

Demonstrating Floodplain Uncertainty Using Flood Probability Maps1

Abstract: The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps depict the 100‐year recurrence interval floodplain boundary as a single line. However, because of natural variability and model uncertainty, no floodplain extents can be accurately defined by a single line. This article presents a new approach to floodplain mapping that takes advantage of accepted methodologies in hydrologic and hydraulic analysis while including the effects of uncertainty. In this approach, the extents of computed floodplain boundaries are defined as a continuous map of flood probabilities, rather than as a single line. Engineers and planners can use these flood probability maps for viewing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary at any recurrence interval. Such a flood probability map is a useful tool for visualizing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary and represents greater honesty in engineering technologies that are used for flood mapping. While institutional barriers may prevent adoption of such definitions for use in graduated flood insurance rates (as most other insurance industries use to account for relative risks), the methods open the door technically to such a reality.     

STORM WATER MANAGEMENT: THE CONCEPT AND ITS APPLICATION1

ABSTRACT: Storm water management is a concept being applied in many urban areas to deal with the increasing problems of storm runoff control and flood damage prevention. This paper introduces the concept and describes the recently completed storm water management program in Columbus, Georgia. Columbus has spent five years and over $200,000 in the development of their problem which includes several basic elements: soils inventory and analysis, hydrologic data collection, sediment and erosion control ordinance, storm water management handbook, urban flood simulation model, interdepartment coordination study, drainage problem categorization study, and a pilot basin study. The results of the pilot basin study are presented including example output from the urban simulation model. The computer output illustrates both the hydrologic-hydraulic and economic capabilities of the model.     

FLOODING PROBLEMS IN A SMALL URBAN WATERSHED-DOAN BROOK,CLEVELAND, OHIO1

ABSTRACT: Analysis of a small urban watershed's flooding was undertaken to determine causes and solutions to this serious environmental hazard affecting University Circle, the cultural heart of Greater Cleveland. Doan Brook is a small, highly disturbed urban stream draining 11.3 square miles. Much of the stream coridor and associated park land is owned by the public. The upper watershed lies in the communities of Shaker Heights and Cleveland Heights who lease park land from Cleveland. Two 50-year floods seriously affected the Circle area in August 1975 generating over $1 million in damages. These events resulted from excessive rainfall triggering rapid earth movement of valley walls in the upper watershed, decreased basin lag time from the infilling of several small upland lakes, a seriously undersized stream channel and storm culvert (at University Circle), and complex institutional arrangements between the three communities in the watershed. Suggestions are presented for a methodology to resolve the technical aspects of the flooding problem.