Environmental knowledge and human experience: using a historical analysis of flooding in Ireland to challenge contemporary risk narratives and develop creative policy alternatives

Focusing on three of the largest coastal cities in the Republic of Ireland, this paper highlights the importance of a historical analysis of flood hazards in contextualising current events and potential future risks. Over the last decade, the cities of Dublin, Cork and Galway have experienced several major coastal, river and pluvial floods. In the aftermath of these floods, two distinct but related narratives have dominated public discourse and official responses. The first narrative presents recent floods as unprecedented and as possible evidence of climate change. The second constructs floods primarily as natural events and assumes that the optimal means of reducing flood losses is to prevent flood events. In this paper, I suggest that these narratives are not supported by a historical analysis of exposure and vulnerability to flood hazards in Irish cities. This paper draws primarily on newspaper archives to construct a record of past flooding that challenges these narratives in several ways and in doing so offers lessons for similar cities in other countries. I contend that these narratives are perpetuated by a narrow form of knowledge production (quantitative risk assessment) and a narrow range of data (numeric instrumental records). Incorporating a broader range of sources and data types into risk and vulnerability assessments may illuminate more creative strategies for reducing both contemporary and future flood losses.     

Valuing floodplain protection and avoidance in a coastal watershed

Flood‐related losses in the United States are increasing despite large‐scale mitigation efforts. To offset the rising cost of floods, the US Congress passed legislation in 2014 that will augment insurance premiums to make the National Flood Insurance Program more actuarially sound. Consequently, there is interest in lowering flood‐related costs to the homeowner, both in terms of premiums and damage. This study addresses the issue by integrating premium savings and damages avoided based on several mitigation scenarios. Specifically, it examines how much policyholders within a watershed near Houston, Texas, could have saved between 1999 and 2009 had their communities introduced specific avoidance‐based mitigation activities. The results indicate that homeowners and communities can offset premium rises and a majority of the damage suffered through marginal expansions of such initiatives. However, the costs associated with their implementation could counter some of these savings, and hence they need to be considered in future work.     

Flooding: what is the impact on pregnancy and child health?

Floods are the most common type of natural disaster in both developed and developing countries and have led to extensive morbidity and mortality throughout the world. Worldwide, over the past 30 years, flooding has claimed the lives of more than 200,000 people and affected more than 2.8 billion others. The impact of flooding on health varies among populations and depends primarily on vulnerability and the kind of event experienced. It severely disrupts livelihoods and has a significant impact on the health of pregnant women and children. In addition, it may exacerbate a range of negative psychological and physiological child and reproductive health outcomes. Awareness‐raising, education, and the issuing of warnings appear to be key initiatives to mitigate or prevent flood morbidity and mortality, especially among people living in low‐ and middle‐income countries. Agencies responding to emergencies also need to be more cognisant of the dangers, specifically those engaged in healthcare, nutrition, and water safety programmes.     

基于SVM的CO2驱油藏输油管道脆弱性评价研究

CO2驱油在全国范围内的广泛开展导致内外扰动对输油管道的威胁大大增加,为指导企业发现输油管道的薄弱点从而预防事故发生,提出CO2驱油藏输油管道脆弱性概念及研究思路。将脆弱性分为5个等级并确定各级脆弱性的取值范围。深入分析脆弱性要素,从致灾因子、承灾体和灾害响应3个方面建立脆弱性评价指标体系,并确定各等级脆弱性对应的指标范围。利用MATLAB R2013a的SVM回归方法,构建脆弱性评价模型并进行实例应用。结果表明:模型训练的输出与期望输出拟合较好,均方误差为9.98052×10-7;训练好的SVM模型具有较强的泛化能力和较高的准确性,其对检验样本脆弱性进行预测的最大相对误差为0.027。利用模型得到研究区域某输油管道的脆弱性值为0.381,其脆弱性程度为不太脆弱。     

不同氧化法对模拟聚合物驱废水降黏效果的影响

分别采用UV-Fenton试剂氧化法、次氯酸钙氧化法和二氧化氯氧化法处理模拟聚合物驱废水,考察了各工艺条件对废水降黏效果的影响。实验结果表明:在初始废水pH为7、反应温度为50℃、反应时间为20 min的条件下,UV-Fenton试剂氧化法适宜的H2O2加入量为1 mmol/L,n(H2O2)∶n(Fe2+)=10,处理后废水降黏率达65.7%;次氯酸钙氧化法适宜的次氯酸钙加入量为500 mg/L,处理后废水降黏率达81.7%;二氧化氯氧化法适宜的二氧化氯加入量为100 mg/L,处理后废水降黏率为40.9%。3种氧化法对模拟聚合物驱废水的降黏率大小顺序为:次氯酸钙氧化法>UV-Fenton试剂氧化法>二氧化氯氧化法。     

Manipulation of density and viscosity for the optimization of DNAPL recovery by alcohol flooding

Laboratory experiments demonstrate that in situ recovery of pooled tetrachloroethene (PCE) from porous media may be accomplished more efficiently using multiple-step alcohol floods than with single alcohol floods. To optimize flooding efficiency while maintaining a low risk of downward DNAPL mobilization, a three-step flooding process is developed employing an isobutanol preflood, a composite alcohol mainflood, and a polymer solution postflood. The density and viscosity of these solutions are manipulated to prevent the onset and propagation of viscous and gravitational fingers, while maintaining phase behavior critical for efficient miscible NAPL displacement. An aqueous partitioning preflood solution of 10% by volume (10% v) isobutanol reduces the NAPL density in situ to approximately 1.00 g/ml by swelling the NAPL prior to miscible displacement induced by the mainflood. The composite alcohol mainflood, containing 65% v ethylene glycol and 35% v 1-propanol maintains miscibility while achieving neutral buoyancy and near stable displacement of the NAPL. Aqueous solutions of xanthan gum polymer efficiently displace the mainflood, reducing viscous fingering associated with waterfloods. Two-dimensional experiments using the multiple-step technique achieve 99.8% DNAPL mass recovery using a total of 0.45 pore volumes of alcohol, illustrating greater recovery efficiency than previous alcohol flooding formulations under comparable conditions.     

Using OpenMI and a Model MAP to Integrate WaterML2 and NetCDF Data Sources into Flood Modeling of Genoa,Italy

Extreme hydrometeorological events such as flash floods have caused considerable loss of life and damage to infrastructure over recent years. Flood events in the Mediterranean region between 1990 and 2006 caused over 4,500 fatalities and cost over €29 billion in damage, with Italy one of the worst affected countries. The Distributed Computing Infrastructure for Hydro‐Meteorology (DRIHM) project is a European initiative aiming at providing an open, fully integrated eScience environment for predicting, managing, and mitigating the risks related to such extreme weather phenomena. Incorporating both modeled and observational data sources, it enables seamless access to a set of computing resources with the objective of providing a collection of services for performing experiments with numerical models in meteorology, hydrology, and hydraulics. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate how this flexible modeling architecture has been constructed using a set of standards including the NetCDF and WaterML2 file formats, in‐memory coupling with OpenMI, controlled vocabularies such as CF Standard Names, ISO19139 metadata, and a Model MAP (Metadata, Adaptors, Portability) gateway concept for preparing numerical models for standardized use. Hydraulic results, including the impact to buildings and hazards to people, are given for the use cases of the severe and fatal flash floods, which occurred in Genoa, Italy in November 2011 and October 2014.     

Modeling Water Quantity and Sulfate Concentrations in the Devils Lake Watershed Using Coupled SWAT and CE‐QUAL‐W2

Devils Lake is an endorheic lake in the Red River of the North basin in northeastern North Dakota. During the last two decades, the lake water level has risen by nearly 10 m, causing floods that have cost more than 1 billion USD in mitigation measures. Another increase of approximately 1.5 m in the lake water level would cause spillage into the Sheyenne River. To alleviate this potentially catastrophic spillage, two artificial outlets were constructed. However, the artificial drainage of water into the Sheyenne River raises water quality concerns because the Devils Lake water contains significantly higher concentrations of dissolved solids, particularly sulfate. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was coupled with the CE‐QUAL‐W2 model to simulate both water balance and sulfate concentrations in the lake. The SWAT model performed well in simulating daily flow in tributaries with E_NS > 0.5 and |PBIAS| < 25%, and reproduced the lake water level with a root mean square error of 0.35 m for the study period from 1995 to 2014. The water temperature and sulfate concentrations simulated by CE‐QUAL‐W2 for the lake are in general agreement with the field observations. The model results show that the operation of the two outlets since August 2005 has lowered the lake level by 0.70 m. Furthermore, the models show pumping water from the two outlets raises sulfate concentrations in the Sheyenne River from ~100 to >500 mg/L. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Urban flooding in Australia: Policy development and implementation

This paper presents a review of Australian urban riverine flooding. By world standards the Australian flood problem is relatively small, though there are pockets of development subject to regular severe inundation. In the past, government response to flooding was ad hoc and characterized by structural adjustments. The 1970s and 1980s, however, have seen a major shift in approach. The new approach emphasizes resource management rather than construction, and consists of the announcement of policies, enactment of enabling legislation, and the introduction of procedures to help ensure that the widest range of flood damage reduction measures are considered. The changes are evident at both the federal and state levels of government.
Though problems remain, particularly at the local government level, where ultimate responsibility for policy implementation generally rests, the authors feel there are good grounds for optimism. Some suggestions for future policy are offered and the importance of public safety is stressed.     

超滤与电渗析联用降低油田采出水矿化度中试试验研究

以大庆油田常规处理后的油田采出水为处理对象，建立日产水300t的超滤预处理和电渗析脱盐处理中试试验装置。考察该工艺所能达到的技术经济指标，掌握放大规律，为万吨级工业装置和系统的设计提供基础数据。经过3000h长时间连续试运行，系统出水水质稳定，出水浊度低于1．0NTU，悬浮物和含油量低于1．00mg／L，矿化度低于1000mg／L，水质完全满足配制聚合物用水要求，证明采用处理后的油田采出水代替清水作为聚合物驱用水是可行的。