SWAT模型在茫溪河流域非点源污染研究中的应用

本研究采用美国农业部农业研究所开发的SWAT模型(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)对茫溪河流域非点源污染进行了模拟研究,构建了适用于茫溪河流域的非点源污染模型,对流域的非点源污染进行了模拟和分析。模拟结果显示:茫溪河流域污染特征以非点源污染为主;东茫溪河水系的泥沙、氮、磷等负荷均大于西茫溪河水系;单位泥沙负荷最大的区域为流域东北部、东部和东南部一带的深丘地区,是茫溪河流域的主要泥沙输出区;氮、磷负荷最大的区域为茫溪河中下游一带的平坝、浅丘地区,是茫溪河流域的主要氮、磷输出区;研究区内泥沙、营养物质的输出具有很强的时间规律,有机氮、有机磷的输出在雨季(6月~9月)会出现高峰,因此雨季是流域内非点源污染源输出的重点时段。     

粮食产量预测理论、方法与应用Ⅰ.科技进步增产理论、模型及其应用

粮食增产趋势及增产原因是国家制定宏观农业政策和措施的依据。科技进步增产理论是指：气候是波动的,科技是持续进步的,它是粮食多年持续增产的主要驱动力;科技进步增产预测模型是多年平均单产移动的回归方程。全国和东北三省粮食增产潜力案例分析结果表明：科技进步单产加速时间最早的是辽宁省,最晚的是黑龙江省;与全国相比,吉林省和辽宁省科技进步贡献率高于全国平均水平,黑龙江省低于全国平均水平,吉林省最高。本文初步得出以下结论：科技进步增产理论科学、模型实用、预测结果准确。     

A Multi‐Scale Analysis of Single‐Family Residential Water Use in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area

Studies that evaluate determinants of residential water demand typically use data from a single spatial scale. Although household‐scale data are preferred, especially when econometric models are used, researchers may be limited to aggregate data. There is little, if any, empirical analysis to assess whether spatial scale may lead to ecological fallacy problems in residential water use research. Using linear mixed‐effects models, we compare the results for the relationship of single‐family water use with its determinants using data from the household and census tract scales in the city of Phoenix. Model results between the household and census tract scale are similar suggesting the ecological fallacy may not be significant. Common significant determinants on these two spatial scales include household size, household income, house age, pool size, irrigable lot size, precipitation, and temperature. We also use city/town scale data from the Phoenix metropolitan area to parameterize the linear mixed‐effects model. The difference in the parameter estimates of those common variables compared to the first two scales indicates there is spatial heterogeneity in the relationship between single‐family water use and its determinants among cities and towns. The negative relationship between single‐family house density and residential water use suggests that residential water consumption could be reduced through coordination of land use planning and water demand management.     

Groundwater vulnerability assessment using an improved DRASTIC method in GIS

Groundwater management can be effectively conducted by using groundwater contamination map assessment. In this study, a modified DRASTIC approach using geographic information system (GIS) was applied to evaluate groundwater vulnerability in Kerman plain (Iran). The Wilcoxon rank-sum nonparametric statistical test was applied to modify the rates of DRASTIC. In addition, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was employed to evaluate the validity of the criteria and sub criteria of all the parameters of the DRASTIC model, which proposed as an alternative treatment of the imprecision demands. The GIS offers spatial analysis in which the multi index evaluation can be effectively conducted through the AHP. The non-point source pollution was effectively determined by the modified DRASTIC method compared with the traditional method. The regression coefficient revealed the relationship between the vulnerability index and the nitrate concentration. The best result was obtained by using AHP–AHP, followed by DRASTIC–AHP, modified DRASTIC–AHP, and AHP–DRASTIC models. In this study, the DRASTIC method failed to provide satisfactory result. Additionally, by using both the original DRASTIC and the modified DRASTIC methods in the study area, AHP–AHP performed highly in the Kerman plain, suggesting that the southern and south east parts of the area considerably calls for conservation against contamination.     

基于业务的网络可靠性试验流量生成方法研究

网络的发展从仅关注速度的提升转移到关注业务的交付能力,由此网络可靠性问题越来越受到研究者的重视。网络可靠性试验是评价网络可靠性的一种重要手段,而试验流量的生成对可靠性评价结果具有决定性的影响。然而目前从可靠性角度对网络进行试验时,对任务的描述较为简单,无法支撑由客户需求分解到网络流量生成的全过程;从流量模型角度出发的生成技术则仅关注全网流量,难以支持可靠性试验中的流量生成。本文提出基于业务的混合模型的流量描述方法,并使用软件实现,最后进行试验验证所提出方法的有效性。     

机载雷达天线对飞机雷击附着点影响研究

飞机的雷击附着点是飞机防雷设计研究的基础,是飞机设计中的重要过程。本文以伊尔-76飞机模型为例,依据SAE-ARP5416和国内相关标准规定的雷击附着点试验方法,采用基于传输线矩阵法的数值仿真技术对飞机的雷击附着特性展开研究,分析了机载雷达天线对飞机雷击附着点的影响,为机载雷达天线的雷电防护设计提供了理论基础。     

攀枝花市城市基础设施与土地收益关联度分析

以攀枝花市为例,综合运用GIS空间分析技术和变异系数权重分析、灰色关联度等方法建立了城市基础设施与土地收益的关联度模型,定量分析城市基础设施与土地收益的关联关系,揭示两者间的关联规律和作用机理.结果表明：①城市基础与土地收益存在较大关联性;②城市基础设施与土地收益关联度在时间序列上具有明显的波动性且呈周期性变化;③城市基础设施与土地收益关联度在空间上呈分异特征.     

力限振动试验技术应用与研究

首先介绍传统加速度振动试验产生过试验的主要原因;接着介绍机械阻抗特性,给出视在质量、有效质量及剩余质量的定义;然后通过对复杂二自由度方法进行理论推导,给出力限试验条件的制定方法;最后以铝板为例,建立典型力限控制试验方案,提出力限试验方法及试验步骤。从试验结果看,力限控制试验方法是缓解试件过试验的一种有效方法。     

基于结构方程的旅游环境承载系统耦合关联与作用机理

构建旅游环境承载力评价体系,运用耦合度指数和结构方程模型揭示山东半岛蓝色经济区旅游环境承载系统的耦合演化规律和动态关联特征.研究表明,半岛蓝色经济区7市各子系统的承载指数均呈增长态势,各承载子系统之间存在耦合作用,协调发展水平均稳步上升,生态承载子系统对经济承载子系统产生正影响,社会承载子系统可通过生态承载子系统对经济承载子系统产生正向影响力.     

榆林地区植被时空分异特征及其影响因素研究

植被作为反映陆地生态系统和气候的重要指标,对研究全球或区域生态环境变化具有重要作用.以地处黄土高原生态脆弱区的榆林市为研究区,基于地理探测器模型,选取坡向、坡度、气温、降水和土壤类型5类自然因子,土地利用类型、人口密度和GDP 3类人文因子,分析榆林地区植被空间分异特征及其驱动力,并揭示了促进植被生长影响因子的最适宜特...