陕西省农业旱灾系统及农业旱灾灾情模型研究

为试图解决当前有关干旱（旱灾）指标的片面性,本文提出了农业旱灾系统（ＡＤＳ）,并设计了描述农业旱灾灾情的模型：Ｅ＝ｋ＊Ｍ＊Ｈ＊Ａ。农业旱灾系统由气象干旱（Ｍ）、水利抗旱（Ｈ）、农业承旱（Ａ）及农业旱灾灾情（Ｅ）等四个要素组成。每一要素均由若干区域性指标进行刻划。在分析陕西省农业旱灾特点的同时,建立了陕西省农业旱灾系统的框架,并利用各种资料分析了陕西省农业旱灾灾情。分析结果表明,由该模型计算的陕西省各县级单位的农业旱灾灾情和几十年来的实际资料是相吻合的,模型是可靠的。而且,通过模型和实际情况的对比,能够为研究农业旱灾灾情形成机制提供更好的佐证。     

滑坡变形趋势分析

将自回归滑动平均模型引入滑坡变形分析,同时考虑了坡体变形趋势性和波动性对未来变形的影响,使得所建模型能更全面地反映坡体变形的动态。     

NONLINEAR MODELING AND PREDICTION OF A RIVER FLOW SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: Model estimation and prediction of a river flow system are investigated using nonlinear system identification techniques. We demonstrate how the dynamics of the system, rainfall, and river flow can be modeled using NARMAX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with eXogenuous input) models. The parameters of the model are estimated using an orthogonal least squares algorithm with intelligent structure detection. The identification of the nonlinear model is described to represent the relationship between local rainfall and river flow at Enoree station (inputs) and river flow at Whitmire (output) for a river flow system in South Carolina.     

基于IWCPA模型的工业节水关键技术选择

通过建立工业节水潜力分析和技术综合评价模型(IWCPA模型),筛选了影响高耗水行业用水的关键技术.选定2002年为基准年,在2010年和2020年高耗水行业取水零增长的情景设定下,进行了分行业和行业耦合的技术综合评价及技术选择,确定了重要工业用水技术实施的优先序,建立了高耗水行业重要用水技术的优选清单.结果表明,未来15a内是否能够在若干工业用水关键技术的研究、应用和推广方面取得突破,是挖掘工业节水潜力、提高工业用水效率的关键.     

Remote sensing of the urban heat island and its changes in Xiamen City of SE China

World-wide urbanization has significantly modified the landscape, which has important climatic implications across all scales due to the simultaneous removal of natural land cover and introduction of urban materials. This resulted in a phenomenon known as an urban heat island(UHI). A study on the UHI in Xiamen of China was carried out using remote sensing technology. Satellite thermal infrared images were used to determine surface radiant temperatures. Thermal remote sensing data were obtained from band 6 of two Landsat TM/ETM^ images of 1989 and 2000 to observe the UHI changes over l l-year period. The thermal infrared bands were processed through several image enhancement technologies. This generated two 3-dimension-perspective images of Xiamen‘s urban heat island in 1989 and 2000, respectively, and revealed heat characteristics and spatial distribution features of the UHI. To find out the change of the UHI between 1989 and 2000, the two thermal images were first normalized and scaled to seven grades to reduce seasonal difference and then overlaid to produce a difference image by subtracting corresponding pixels. The difference image showed an evident development of the urban heat island in the 11 years. This change was due largely to the urban expansion with a consequent alteration in the ratio of sensible heat flux to latent heat flux. To quantitatively compare UHI, an index called Urban-Heat-Island Ratio Index(URI) was created. It can reveal the intensity of the UHI within the urban area. The calculation of the index was based on the ratio of UHI area to urban area. The greater the index, the more intense the UHI was. The calculation of the index for the Xiamen City indicated that the ratio of UHI area to urban area in 2000 was less than that in 1989. High temperatures in several areas in 1989 were reduced or just disappeared, such as those in old downtown area and Gulangyu lsland. For the potential mitigation of the UHI in Xiamen, a long-term heat island reduction strategy of planting shade trees and using light-colored, highly reflective roof and paving materials should be included in the plans of the city planers, environmental managers and other decision-makers to improve the overall urban environment in the future.     

城市污水回用于农业的技术经济分析——以以色列农业灌溉为例

城市污水回用于农业是污水资源化的有效途径。论述了污水灌溉对农业和环境的影响 ,并以以色列为例对污水回用于农业进行了经济效益分析 ,同时介绍了决定用水组成、回用水质以及农作物的组成等的优化模型     

以关键酶为基础共代谢模型的建立——以甲烷细菌共代谢三氯乙烯为例

根据共代谢过程扣特点，详细推导建立了一个以关键酶为中心的综合性数学模型，模型不仅包括传统的基质降解迷率和微生物生长，而且包括关键产诱导，毒性抑制和自我恢复，以及能量的调节等重要因素，模型能够在理解释文献报道的各种实验现象。     

中国水环境非点源污染负荷的估算研究

中国已占水环境容量中,除了点源污染以外,非点源污染也占有相当比重,非点源污染负荷的定量化研究势在必行.国外对非点源污染的研究开始较早,成果也较成熟.从20世纪80年代以来,中国也逐渐认识到非点源污染的存在及其危害性,开始了非点源污染的控制研究.但是中国对非点源污染问题的研究现在尚处于初级阶段,多为借鉴国外模型.文章分析了国内外对非点源污染的研究方法和研究现状,介绍了适合中国国情的非点源污染负荷估算的方法,包括流域水文估算法、大尺度区域中非点源污染负荷估算的方法.     

总量控制费用分摊的多目标规划模型及解法

文章指出了污染物总量控制规划中公平合理分摊优化治理投资费用的重要性，分析了现有的优化治理投资费用分摊方法存在的问题，建立了公平合理分摊优化治理投资费用的多目标规划模型，提出用最短距离理想点法加以求解，并通过实例验证了该方法的合理性。结果表明该模型及解法既可以保证总量控制规划方案的社会整体效益最大，又不失公平，从而确保总量控制规划方案的顺利实施。     

土地利用和土地覆盖变化研究模型综述

本文综述了全球变化研究中土地利用和土地覆盖变化（ＬＵＣＣ）的主要模型,重点介绍了植被模型和引入社会驱动力的ＬＵＣＣ模型,并归纳出ＬＵＣＣ模型的以下发展趋势：①新一代的ＬＵＣＣ模型应该能够模拟ＬＵＣＣ的主要社会经济和自然驱动力,包括从ＬＵＣＣ到驱动力和全球变化的主要反馈关系；②具有明确的空间关系,能够以适当的空间分辨率,比较好地预测长期的（５０～１００ａ）土地利用和覆盖变化及有关的生物物理参数,如植被特征、资源的积聚和退化等；③能够更好地认识ＬＵＣＣ与其主要驱动力之间的关系在局地、区域和全球尺度上的动态和后果；充分考虑土地利用和覆盖变化对政策、技术进步、人口增长、经济发展、市场变化等社会变量的灵敏性,此外,还应注意意识、信仰等文化因素的影响；④发展新的ＬＵＣＣ建模方法,使ＬＵＣＣ模型能够与其它类型的全球变化模型,特别是气候模型建立联系。