Conjoint analysis for environmental evaluation

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: Conjoint analysis and the related choice-modelling methods have been used for many years in marketing research to evaluate consumer behaviour and preferences for different kinds of product attributes. Recently, the number of applications in environmental science and management has started to grow. Conjoint analysis is found in many different forms, and the environmental studies evaluated in this review display the same range of methods as in other fields. The key characteristic of all these methods is that trade-offs are evaluated by jointly considering a number of important attributes. MAIN FEATURES: This paper is a review of the literature on environmental applications of conjoint analysis and assesses in which environmental area conjoint analysis has been most successful. The method and the design of the studies are reviewed as well. RESULTS: A total of 84 studies were found, dealing with environmental issues that were evaluated by conjoint analysis. The studies concern agriculture, ecosystem management, energy, environmental evaluation, forestry, land management, pollution, products, recreation, environmental risk analysis and waste management. DISCUSSION: Choice experiments seem to have a comparatively stronger position in environmental studies than elsewhere. Most of the environmental applications are related to natural resource management. This is somewhat surprising, but a number of reports have appeared also on product evaluation, which could be a key application area in the future. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to marketing and transportation, the number of environmental conjoint studies is rather small but increasing, and the method has proven to work effectively in eliciting preferences on environmental issues. In environmental issues, experimenters often use choice experiments, especially concerning ecosystem management and environmental evaluations. When it comes to evaluating preferences concerning agriculture, forestry, energy and products, a more traditional approach of conjoint analysis is favoured. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: Two new areas of application are identified in this review--environmental communication and expert elicitation. Conjoint analysis can thus be developed into a useful instrument for environmental risk analysis and communication, both of which are necessary for an efficient approach to risk governance.     

A Procedure for NEPA Assessment of Selenium Hazards Associated With Mining

This paper gives step-by-step instructions for assessing aquatic selenium hazards associated with mining. The procedure was developed to provide the U.S. Forest Service with a proactive capability for determining the risk of selenium pollution when it reviews mine permit applications in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). The procedural framework is constructed in a decision-tree format in order to guide users through the various steps, provide a logical sequence for completing individual tasks, and identify key decision points. There are five major components designed to gather information on operational parameters of the proposed mine as well as key aspects of the physical, chemical, and biological environment surrounding it — geological assessment, mine operation assessment, hydrological assessment, biological assessment, and hazard assessment. Validation tests conducted at three mines where selenium pollution has occurred confirmed that the procedure will accurately predict ecological risks. In each case, it correctly identified and quantified selenium hazard, and indicated the steps needed to reduce this hazard to an acceptable level. By utilizing the procedure, NEPA workers can be confident in their ability to understand the risk of aquatic selenium pollution and take appropriate action. Although the procedure was developed for the Forest Service it should also be useful to other federal land management agencies that conduct NEPA assessments, as well as regulatory agencies responsible for issuing coal mining permits under the authority of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) and associated Section 401 water quality certification under the Clean Water Act. Mining companies will also benefit from the application of this procedure because priority selenium sources can be identified in relation to specific mine operating parameters. The procedure will reveal the point(s) at which there is a need to modify operating conditions to meet environmental quality goals. By recognizing concerns early in the NEPA process, it may be possible for a mining company to match operational parameters with environmental requirements, thereby increasing the likelihood that the permit application will be approved.     

乡镇工业污染防治战略初探

本文通过对乡镇工业经济发展现状及其环境问题的评价分析,提出乡镇工业环境管理应按本地自然条件、经济发展水平和乡镇企业的特点,实施分区域、按行业、有重点地进行管理的防治战略。并建议我国环境管理在以城市和大工业为重点的同时,及早将乡镇工业污染防治工作放在战略高度加以重视,切实加强乡镇工业环境管理。     

爆炸事故过程分析中不确定性问题处理方法

针对事故过程分析中的不确定性问题,指出了不确定问题在危险分析中的重要性及处理该问题的复杂性和难点,列出了几种基于非线性数学方法处理不确定问题的基本方法,如微分法、MonteCarlo模拟、Fourier方法、响应表面法等,并对之进行了比较.建议在处理事故过程的不确定性时采用Monte Carlo模拟.     

A Marine Pollution Study of Northeast Coastal Water Off Taiwan Island

The coastal water of northeast Taiwan island, called 'Yin-Yang Hai' for its distinct yellow colour compared with blue offshore water, was investigated from 1989 to 1990 by the authors. Biological study showed the dominant species of plankton to be Copepoda, Cladocera, planktonic eggs and Diatoma. Dominant species of benthos were young crabs, Amphipoda and Annelida, with Amphipoda usually occurring in heavily polluted areas. Heavy metal data showed that the concentration of copper was high. the copper and iron concentration in algae of the intertidal zone was also high. the concentrations of iron and copper in inshore water were also higher than in offshore water. By comparison of the pH and salinity distribution of this area, we conclude that this coastal water has been polluted by acid waste water from coastal industry. the suspended solids concentration in sea water is high. Flocculation occurring at the boundary of fresh and saline water might be a reason for the distinct yellow colour of the water of this area. Further study is required.     

铅锌矿区玉米中重金属污染特征及健康风险评价

以西南某铅锌矿区为研究区域,测定了92份玉米样品中Pb、Zn、Cd、Cr和Ni的含量,开展了矿区玉米籽粒中重金属污染特征及健康风险研究.应用单因子污染指数和内梅罗综合污染指数分析了重金属在玉米中的污染状况,采用健康风险评价模型评价了重金属对人体健康造成的风险,同时利用主成分分析法解析了重金属的主要来源.结果表明,玉米籽粒中Pb、Zn、Cd、Cr和Ni的平均含量分别为0.30、23.75、0.21、1.33和1.15 mg ·kg^-1;除重金属Zn外,其他4种重金属均超过我国食品卫生标准限值,研究区玉米籽粒中Pb、Cd、Cr和Ni的综合污染指数范围介于4.32~9.07之间,均属于重度污染,Zn的综合污染指数小于1;重金属通过玉米籽粒摄入引起的复合重金属污染对成人和儿童均存在健康风险,且对儿童造成的健康风险高于成人.玉米籽粒中5种重金属可以由2个主成分来反映,第一主成分主要支配Pb、Cd、Cr和Ni的来源,第二主成分支配Zn的来源.玉米籽粒重金属含量与土壤重金属含量之间没有明显相关性.     

降水空间异质性对非点源关键源区识别面积变化的影响

针对地形起伏和降水空间差异较大的农业区非点源污染问题,基于SWAT模型评估了阿什河流域在异质性降水和均匀降水两种情景下总氮、总磷关键源区空间变化规律,统计了两种情景下识别的关键源区面积变化,并分析其与降水特征参数的关系.结果表明,降水量一定时,两种情景下识别的总氮、总磷关键源区面积变化趋势大致相同,且总磷关键源区面积不易受降水空间异质性的影响,但总氮关键源区面积却明显受到其影响.对各年份总氮和总磷关键源区面积与降水特征参数的相关分析表明,总磷关键源区面积与当年降水量呈显著正相关,而总氮关键源区面积却与前一年降水量呈显著正相关.研究结果对进一步探讨降水这一重要驱动因子的不确定性对非点源污染关键源区的影响,以及农业非点源污染的治理具有重要意义.     

长江经济带突发水污染风险分区研究

长江经济带突发水污染事件频发,对区域人群健康和生态安全造成严峻挑战.环境风险分区是环境风险管理的基础和有效工具.本研究以2015年为基准年,基于环境统计数据、DEM数据、水质监测断面数据和基础地理数据,综合考虑了水系流向、水系级别及水质等因素,以1 km×1 km的网格为基本单元,对长江经济带开展突发水污染风险分区.结果表明:①高风险区面积为3348.9 km~2,占评估区总面积的0.16%;较高风险区面积为26030.7 km~2,占比1.27%;中风险区面积为97971.1 km~2,占比4.79%;低风险区面积为1916838.7 km~2,占比93.77%;②从沿长江干流两岸分布来看,高风险区面积沿长江上游至下游呈逐渐增加趋势,主要集中分布在重庆市中部、湖北省东部、安徽省东部、江苏省中西部、浙江省北部、上海市西部等地;③从沿长江主要支流两岸分布来看,高风险区主要分布在嘉陵江南段、乌江南段、汉水东段、湘江北段、赣江北段等.研究结果可为长江经济带生态环境管理提供科学依据.     

京津冀大气污染的时空分布与人口暴露

经济的快速发展和城市化导致京津冀地区的空气质量不断恶化,已经引起学术界广泛的关注.为了揭示近年来京津冀地区大气污染状况,本研究基于中国空气质量在线监测分析平台发布的PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_2、CO、NO_2和O_3_8 h_max长期监测数据,采用统计学的方法分析了2014—2018年京津冀13个市这6种污染物的时空变化特征,结合各城市人口数据,评估了在此背景下该地区PM_(2.5)和O_3_8 h_max的人口暴露风险.结果表明:京津冀地区PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_2、CO和NO_2近年来整体上呈下降趋势,而O_3_8 h_max则呈上升趋势.总体而言,PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_2、CO和NO_2表现为冬季最高、春秋季次之、夏季最低的特征,而O_3_8 h_max则表现为夏季春季秋季冬季的特点,并在月变化上呈倒"V"型,从1月份开始逐渐上升,在6月份达到峰值,而后又逐渐下降.空间上,PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_2、CO和NO_2呈现南高北低的分布特征,而O_3_8 h_max在2014—2016年呈现北高南低的分布特征,但在2017—2018年则呈现南高北低的分布特点.此外,京津冀北部地区PM_(2.5)的来源主要是一次气溶胶,而二次气溶胶是中部地区PM_(2.5)的主要来源.除秦皇岛、承德和张家口外,其他城市细粒子在颗粒物中占的比重较大.随着近年来PM_(2.5)浓度的降低,暴露于高浓度的PM_(2.5)中的人口比例逐年减少,但距离年平均浓度限值还相差很远.除2014年外,暴露在O_3浓度超标情况下的人口在2015—2017年逐渐上升.