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101.
Moon Seong Rang Min Goo Kang Seung Woo Park Jeong Jae Lee Ryung Hak Yoo 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2006,42(2):473-486
The main focus of this study was to compare the Grey model and several artificial neural network (ANN) models for real time flood forecasting, including a comparison of the models for various lead times (ranging from one to six hours). For hydrological applications, the Grey model has the advantage that it can easily be used in forecasting without assuming that forecast storm events exhibit the same stochastic characteristics as the storm events themselves. The major advantage of an ANN in rainfall‐runoff modeling is that there is no requirement for any prior assumptions regarding the processes involved. The Grey model and three ANN models were applied to a 2,509 km2 watershed in the Republic of Korea to compare the results for real time flood forecasting with from one to six hours of lead time. The fifth‐order Grey model and the ANN models with the optimal network architectures, represented by ANN1004 (34 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), ANN1010 (40 input nodes, 25 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), and ANN1004T (14 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), were adopted to evaluate the effects of time lags and differences between area mean and point rainfall. The Grey model and the ANN models, which provided reliable forecasts with one to six hours of lead time, were calibrated and their datasets validated. The results showed that the Grey model and the ANN1010 model achieved the highest level of performance in forecasting runoff for one to six lead hours. The ANN model architectures (ANN1004 and ANN1010) that used point rainfall data performed better than the model that used mean rainfall data (ANN1004T) in the real time forecasting. The selected models thus appear to be a useful tool for flood forecasting in Korea. 相似文献
102.
Puneet Srivastava James N. McNair Thomas E. Johnson 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2006,42(3):545-563
ABSTRACT: The performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and artificial neural network (ANN) models in simulating hydrologic response was assessed in an agricultural watershed in southeastern Pennsylvania. All of the performance evaluation measures including Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (E) and coefficient of determination (R2) suggest that the ANN monthly predictions were closer to the observed flows than the monthly predictions from the SWAT model. More specifically, monthly streamflow E and R2 were 0.54 and 0.57, respectively, for the SWAT model calibration period, and 0.71 and 0.75, respectively, for the ANN model training period. For the validation period, these values were ?0.17 and 0.34 for the SWAT and 0.43 and 0.45 for the ANN model. SWAT model performance was affected by snowmelt events during winter months and by the model's inability to adequately simulate base flows. Even though this and other studies using ANN models suggest that these models provide a viable alternative approach for hydrologic and water quality modeling, ANN models in their current form are not spatially distributed watershed modeling systems. However, considering the promising performance of the simple ANN model, this study suggests that the ANN approach warrants further development to explicitly address the spatial distribution of hydrologic/water quality processes within watersheds. 相似文献
103.
Kyoung Jae Lim Bernard A. Engel Suresh Muthukrishnan Jon Harbor 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2006,42(3):629-643
ABSTRACT: Few studies have been conducted to explore the effects of initial abstraction on estimated direct runoff despite the widespread use of the curve number (CN) method in many hydrologic models to estimate direct runoff. In this study, use of a 5 percent ratio of initial abstraction (Ia) to storage (S) to estimate daily direct runoff with modified CN values for a 5 percent Ia/S value was investigated using the Long‐Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L‐THIA) geographic information system (GIS). In addition, the effects on estimated runoff of altering the hydrologic soil group due to urbanization were investigated. The L‐THIA model was applied to the Indiana Little Eagle Creek watershed with 5 percent and 20 percent Ia/S values, considering hydrologic soil group alteration due to urbanization. The results indicate that uses of a 5 percent la/S and modified CN values and Hydrologic Soil Group D for urbanized areas in model runs can improve long term direct runoff prediction. 相似文献
104.
Catherine Denault Robert G. Millar Barbara J. Lence 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2006,42(3):685-697
ABSTRACT: Stationarity of rainfall statistical parameters is a fundamental assumption in hydraulic infrastructure design that may not be valid in an era of changing climate. This study develops a framework for examining the potential impacts of future increases in short duration rainfall intensity on urban infrastructure and natural ecosystems of small watersheds and demonstrates this approach for the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed in British Columbia, Canada. Nonstationarities in rainfall records are first analyzed with linear regression analysis, and the detected trends are extrapolated to build potential future rainfall scenarios. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used to analyze the effects of increased rainfall intensity on design peak flows and to assess future drainage infrastructure capacity according to the derived scenarios. While the framework provided herein may be modified for cases in which more complex distributions for rainfall intensity are needed and more sophisticated stormwater management models are available, linear regressions and SWMM are commonly used in practice and are applicable for the Mission/Wagg Creek watershed. Potential future impacts on stream health are assessed using methods based on equivalent total impervious area. In terms of impacts on the drainage infrastructure, the results of this study indicate that increases in short duration rainfall intensity may be expected in the future but that they would not create severe impacts in the Mission/Wagg Creek system. The equivalent levels of imperviousness, however, suggest that the impacts on stream health could be far more damaging. 相似文献
105.
106.
Stanley A. Changnon Nancy E. Westcott 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2002,38(5):1467-1475
ABSTRACT: Operations of a dense raingage network in the Chicago area since 1989 provided data to assess the temporal and spatial distributions of heavy rainstorms. The 12‐year average was 4.4 storms per year, 40 percent more than in the 1948 to 1980 period, reflecting an ongoing Midwestern increase in heavy rains. The total rainfall from the 53 heavy rainstorms maximized over the city, reflecting previous observations that the influence of the city and Lake Michigan on the atmosphere causes an increase in heavy rains. Impacts from the record high number of eight storms in 2001 revealed that efforts to control flooding including the Deep Tunnel system, had reduced street and basement flooding in the moderate intensity storms, but the two most intense storms, each with 100‐year rainfall values, led to excessive flooding and a need to release flood waters into Lake Michigan. Results suggest continuing increases in the number of heavy rainstorms in future years, which has major implications for water managers in Chicago and elsewhere. 相似文献
107.
S. Mostaghimi T. M. Younos U. S. Tim 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1992,28(3):545-552
ABSTRACT: Simulated rainfall was used on experimental field plots to compare the effect of chemical fertilizer and sludge application on sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus in runoff from no-till and conventional tillage systems. Chemical fertilizer application under the no-till system resulted in the least amount of total N and P in surface runoff. However, sludge application under the no-till system resulted in the least amount of NO3-N and sediment in surface runoff. The worst water quality scenarios were observed when either sludge or chemical fertilizer were surface-applied under a conventional tillage system. Nitrogen losses from the conventional tillage system were minimized when sludge was incorporated into the soil. However, phosphorus and sediment yield from such a system were significantly higher when compared to phosphorus and sediment yield from the no-till system. The results from this study indicate that the use of sludge on agricultural land under a no-till system can be a viable alternative to chemical fertilizer for nitrogen and phosphorus control in runoff. A more cautious approach is recommended when the sludge is incorporated into the soil in a conventional tillage system because of potential for high sediment and phosphorus yield in surface runoff. 相似文献
108.
Dan M. Wells Ellis W. Huddleston Robert G. Rekers 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1971,7(1):124-132
ABSTRACT. .Eighteen rural lakes in Lubbock County were sampled on a routine basis following runoff-producing rainfall for a period of approximately eighteen months to determine whether or not runoff from intensively farmed agricultural areas contained significant concentrations of nitrates, phosphates, herbicides, or insecticides. An additional fifteen lakes lying within a triangle bounded by the cities of Plainview, Canyon, and Hereford, Texas, were sampled one time during the summer of 1969 to provide additional data regarding the nature and extent of the potential problem in an area with a different soil type and a slightly different cropping pattern. Based on results of detailed analyses of approximately two hundred samples of water collected from the lakes and an equal number of sediment samples collected from the same lakes at the same time, it appears that the concentrations of all chemical pollutants in runoff from agricultural lands in the High Plains are well below the allowable concentrations for drinking water. 相似文献
109.
Peter E. Black 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1970,6(2):153-162
Three fundamental concepts linking drainage basin characteristics, stream behavior, and management of watersheds are deduced from field data and observations. An electrical analogy of a watershed clarifies definitions and broadens understanding of this complex natural resource. The three basic principles deal with (1) the interrelationships of watershed morphology, constitution, and appearance; (2) the nature of the control man can exert over runoff-influencing forces, and (3) the efficiency of watershed management efforts. Recognition of these principles can assist educators, managers, planners and researchers to more fully inform students and to more effectively guide and evaluate management decisions. 相似文献
110.
John T. Riedel 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1970,6(3):439-451
To aid in planning and design of additional flood protection on the Lower Rio Grande, the Hydroraeteorological Branch prepared a probable maximum precipitation study for the International Boundary and Water Commission (United States and Mexico) and the Republic of Mexico. Five drainages from 2,000 to over 17,000 square miles in area between Falcon and Anzalduas Dams including Rio San Juan and Rio Alamo in Mexico are the areas of concern. The great rains of hurricane Beulah, September 19–24, 1967 verified that additional protection is needed. Procedures for estimating probable maximum precipitation (PMP) are described. A particular problem was to estimate rainfall potential for the Sierra Madre Oriental in Rio San Juan and Alamo drainages. These mountains form a north-south windward-facing slope and barrier of over 7000 feet in elevation. A detailed study was made of rains from hurricane Beulah. The storm produced the greatest known rain depths in North America for 50,000 square miles or greater, and durations longer than 48 hours. 相似文献