中国可持续发展综合评价研究

可持续发展作为一个动态、开放的复杂巨系统。人口、资源、经济、环境和科技构成了其关键要素。本文基于PREEST系统模型。首先提出了一套中国可持续发展综合评价指标体系：同时。借助于主成分分析法和隶属度分析法。就中国1987～2001年度的综合发展指数与协调发展指数进行了实证分析；最后。基于研究成果。对中国未来的可持续发展提出了若干政策建议。     

Population Ageing and Sustainable Development Research in China

According to the United Nations population projections, the population of the elderly is expected to roughly triple in China from 2000 to 2050, particularly when the generations who were born between the 1950s and 1970s move through the age structure, and also because people are living longer and fertility rates have fallen, population aging is expected to put pressure on government's fiscal balance through higher old-age security benefits and health-care expenditures. This work draws together the broad range of elements involved within a consistent framework, based on a computable dynamic general equilibrium model with an overlapping generation structure. Further analysis using model simulation illustrates that the alternative schemes for the benefit rate, retirement age and technological progress are likely to be beneficial, and that an obvious slow-down in the growth of living standards is likely to be avoided.     

论生态园林及其建设的基本原则

生态园林是城市绿地建设的新思维,也是生态学具体应用的实践.生态园林建设应遵循生态优先、物种多样性保护和重建、因地制宜、处理好种间关系、建立群落自维持机制、重视生态文化内涵等六要素.     

Exoautometabolic regulation of transgenes in microorganisms

Data on the existence of a specific system regulating the growth, size, and structure of enterobacterial populations are first summarized in terms of the chemical ecology concept formulated by S.S. Shvarts. The role of this system in transgene functioning is described using the example of the lux operon integrated into Escherichia coli. A relatively simple test for estimating such interactions is proposed.Translated from Ekologiya, No. 2, 2005, pp. 91–96.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Pshenichnov, Maslennikova, Nikitina.     

生态足迹影响因子的定量分析

人口的膨胀和人类工业化进程的加剧，使得人类向自然界获取越来越多的资源，同时向环境源源不断的输入废弃物，已经严重超过了自然生态系统的供给能力和环境容量，生态环境日益恶化，水土流失、草场退化、植被消亡、生物多样性锐减、全球变暖等情况已经严重到难以遏制的地步，危及到人类自身的生存。在和平与发展成为世界两大主题的今天，人们越来越关注可持续发展的问题。在现有资料的基础上，利用主成分分析方法，定量地讨论了中国各省（区市）1999年生态足迹大小与其影响因子间的关系。结果表明，生态足迹的大小是各省（区市）的大中型企业个数、全社会固定生产投资等众多因子共同作用的结果，其中总人口和GDP是生态足迹大小的主要影响因子，其因子载荷量分别达到了0.940和0.913。值得一提的是非农业人口与生态足迹的相关系数超过了农业人口，这说明由于消费模式和生活水平等的差异，非农业人口对生态足迹的影响大于农业人口对生态足迹的影响。在此基础上建立了生态足迹影响因子的多元线性回归模型，以期为生态足迹在进行区域可持续发展评价的方法上提供新的思路。     

中国可持续社会养老保险的综合评价体系和实证分析

我国可持续社会养老保险的综合评价指标体系包括四个层次和三级子系统，内容涉及养老保险人数、机构设置、基金管理和代际平衡四个子目标。应用因子分析模糊综合评价方法对我国1990-2001年养老保险建设状况进行评价，本文认为基金管理，行政管理和代际失衡是影响我国可持续养老保险发展的主要因素。     

南宁城市大气污染对人体健康的危害及治理对策

南宁市大气属煤烟型污染 ,大气的主要污染物为SO2 、NOx、TSP、降尘 ,虽然随着环境管理和污染治理工作的加强 ,污染物浓度逐年下降 ,但是工业区大气污染仍然较重。污染物流行病学调查显示 :工业区癌症和呼吸系统疾病死亡率均高于全市平均水平 2倍左右 ,城区又高于郊区 2倍 ,大气污染综合指数与呼吸内科门诊就诊人数呈正相关。用邓聚龙的灰色系统理论分析得知污染物对癌症和呼吸系统疾病死亡率有关联 ,关联度从大到小排序为 :TSP >降尘 >SO2 >NOx ,最后提出了大气污染治理的对策。     

企业需要建立人性化的安全管理

由于我国对企业特别是海外来大陆投资的企业，缺乏严格的安全管理手段，致使不少企业屡次出现安全事故。为了减少企业安全事故的发生，提高企业安全度，要求企业在贯彻“安全第一，预防为主”的基本方针的基础上。建立“以人为本。以制度和伦理道德为约束的人性化的安全管理系统”。本文给出了该系统的模型，并对此模型进行了分析和解释，探讨了相关的几个理论基础，最后给出了人性化安全管理的实质。通过该系统的管理执行，使企业在尊重人权、尊重生命的前提下发展壮大，最终实现安全的全球化。     

Effect of Mountain Relief and Industrial Air Pollution on Biometric Characteristics of Pine Stands

The effect of mountain relief and industrial air pollution on biometric parameters of pine stands was studied. The empirical–statistical models of the dependence of biometric characteristics on the parameters of forest sites were developed using raster modeling and multivariate analysis. The possibility of predicting changes in the biometric parameters at any site on the basis of these models is shown.     

The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in Urban Environmental Management: Some Evidence from Hanoi, Vietnam

In recent years flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) to developing countries have rapidly been increasing. It is now an important contributor to the national economy and urban growth in scores of developing countries. Rapid urbanization in these countries is leading to many problems in the cities. Existing urban infrastructure and municipal services have been unable to cope with the increased demand arising from growing population and rapid economic growth. Consequently, the environment in these cities has deteriorated alarmingly. This paper assesses the role of FDI in urban environmental management (UEM) by analyzing the linkages between them for Hanoi City in Vietnam. The paper's analysis and findings are presented under three main themes: one, FDI, employment and income; two, FDI and environmental degradation; and three, potential of utilizing FDI for the provision of urban environmental infrastructure and services (UEI&S) in order to improve the urban environment. Both primary and secondary source data have been used. Policy implications of the research findings are drawn from the perspective of sustainable development.