BASIN SCALE WATER MANAGEMENT AND FORECASTING USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: Water scarcity in the Sevier River Basin in south‐central Utah has led water managers to seek advanced techniques for identifying optimal forecasting and management measures. To more efficiently use the limited quantity of water in the basin, better methods for control and forecasting are imperative. Basin scale management requires advanced forecasts of the availability of water. Information about long term water availability is important for decision making in terms of how much land to plant and what crops to grow; advanced daily predictions of streamflows and hydraulic characteristics of irrigation canals are of importance for managing water delivery and reservoir releases; and hourly forecasts of flows in tributary streams to account for diurnal fluctuations are vital to more precisely meet the day‐to‐day expectations of downstream farmers. A priori streamflow information and exogenous climate data have been used to predict future streamflows and required reservoir releases at different timescales. Data on snow water equivalent, sea surface temperatures, temperature, total solar radiation, and precipitation are fused by applying artificial neural networks to enhance long term and real time basin scale water management information. This approach has not previously been used in water resources management at the basin‐scale and could be valuable to water users in semi‐arid areas to more efficiently utilize and manage scarce water resources.     

西昌高原鳅人工繁殖技术研究

对西昌高原鳅(Triplophysa xichangensis)人工繁殖中的催产药物及其剂量、受精方式、孵化方法和仔鱼水花培育方法等一系列关键技术进行了详细研究。结果表明,对性腺发育至Ⅳ+~Ⅳ++期的雌鱼分二次注射LRH-A2 0.1μg/g(鱼体重)和HCG 20 IU/g(鱼体重),雄鱼剂量减半,注射量0.1 mL,能很好地促进雌雄鱼发情并产卵排精,在水温19±0.5℃时的效应时间为30.5~31 h;在一个特制的塑料盆中完成了亲鱼培育、打针催产、发情、自然产卵受精、孵化以及仔鱼培育等全部人工繁殖过程,受精率、孵化率和仔鱼水花培育20 d的成活率平均分别为97.2%、85%和85%。本研究成果可应用于西昌高原鳅规模化繁育,对长江上游鱼类生物多样性保护有着积极意义。     

Probabilistic Flood Inundation Forecasting Using Rating Curve Libraries

One approach for performing uncertainty assessment in flood inundation modeling is to use an ensemble of models with different conceptualizations, parameters, and initial and boundary conditions that capture the factors contributing to uncertainty. However, the high computational expense of many hydraulic models renders their use impractical for ensemble forecasting. To address this challenge, we developed a rating curve library method for flood inundation forecasting. This method involves pre‐running a hydraulic model using multiple inflows and extracting rating curves, which prescribe a relation between streamflow and stage at various cross sections along a river reach. For a given streamflow, flood stage at each cross section is interpolated from the pre‐computed rating curve library to delineate flood inundation depths and extents at a lower computational cost. In this article, we describe the workflow for our rating curve library method and the Rating Curve based Automatic Flood Forecasting (RCAFF) software that automates this workflow. We also investigate the feasibility of using this method to transform ensemble streamflow forecasts into local, probabilistic flood inundation delineations for the Onion and Shoal Creeks in Austin, Texas. While our results show water surface elevations from RCAFF are comparable to those from the hydraulic models, the ensemble streamflow forecasts used as inputs to RCAFF are the largest source of uncertainty in predicting observed floods.     

基于人工神经网络的气体泄爆最大超压预测研究

为解决传统经验公式在预测气体泄爆中最大超压出现时的较大偏差或过于保守的问题，提出使用人工神经网络预测气体泄爆最大超压。基于124组实验数据，采用BP与RBF神经网络，通过优化算法计算与迭代循环对泄爆样本中的影响因素进行降维与选择，并确定2类神经网络本身在学习与计算气体泄爆样本时的相关参数。结果表明:PCA（主成分分析法）在当前样本条件下的降维效果较差，而通过迭代对比确认气体泄爆样本中的5类特征全部保留时神经网络的训练模拟效果最好；通过对124组实验数据进行随机挑选训练集与测试集的训练模拟结果发现，神经网络对气体泄爆中最大超压的预测效果较好；通过对比Molkov提出的和经Fakandu等改进的NFPA 68经验公式以及2类神经网络的预测结果表明，神经网络相比于传统气体泄爆经验公式具有明显优势。     

Efficacy of created and restored nesting sites for the conservation of colonial Laridae in the South of France

By rapidly modifying key habitat components, habitat restoration is at risk of producing attractive cues for animals without providing habitats of sufficient quality. As such, individual fitness components, such as reproduction, could be reduced and restored habitats could become ecological traps. This risk notably appears by using artificial constructions in restoration projects, yet few studies have evaluated their efficacy in a robust way. We investigated this by analyzing 154 islets that were created or restored to improve the conservation status of 7 colonial Laridae species in the South of France. From 2007 to 2016, we compared occupancy dynamics and breeding parameters of these species between the restored sites and 846 unmanaged nesting sites. We also explored species’ preference for different nesting site characteristics and their respective effect on breeding parameters. Restored nesting sites were 2–9 times as attractive as unmanaged sites for all species except the Black-headed Gull (Chroicocephalus ridibundus). Colonization probability was up to 100 times higher in sites already used by other species the previous year and increased with distance to the shore until >0.2 when distance was over 250 m. Abandonment probability was 29–70% lower when breeding was successful the previous year in all species except the Sandwich Tern (Thalasseus sandvicensis). Productivity and breeding success probability were 2 times higher on managed sites. Distance from the shore was an important attractive characteristic of artificial nesting sites in all species. Other nesting site characteristics had species-specific effects on colonization, abandonment, and breeding success. Our results indicate that managed nesting sites are successful conservation tools for colonial Laridae in the Mediterranean and do not act as ecological traps. Our study showed that testing the ecological trap hypothesis is a robust way to evaluate the success of restoration projects of breeding habitats.     

An investigation on the fuel savings potential of hybrid hydraulic refuse collection vehicles

Refuse trucks play an important role in the waste collection process. Due to their typical driving cycle, these vehicles are characterized by large fuel consumption, which strongly affects the overall waste disposal costs. Hybrid hydraulic refuse vehicles offer an interesting alternative to conventional diesel trucks, because they are able to recuperate, store and reuse braking energy. However, the expected fuel savings can vary strongly depending on the driving cycle and the operational mode. Therefore, in order to assess the possible fuel savings, a typical driving cycle was measured in a conventional vehicle run by the waste authority of the City of Stuttgart, and a dynamical model of the considered vehicle was built up. Based on the measured driving cycle and the vehicle model including the hybrid powertrain components, simulations for both the conventional and the hybrid vehicle were performed. Fuel consumption results that indicate savings of about 20% are presented and analyzed in order to evaluate the benefit of hybrid hydraulic vehicles used for refuse collection.     

好氧颗粒污泥自生动态膜生物反应器处理碱减量印染废水

自生动态膜生物反应器(SFDMBR)接种颗粒污泥启动,研究溶解氧浓度和水力停留时间对该反应器处理碱减量印染废水的影响。自生动态膜生物反应器形成稳定的动态膜后,出水浊度小于10 NTU,系统对浊度的去除率在90%以上,溶解氧和水力停留时间对反应器出水浊度基本无影响。系统对废水色度的去除率随着溶解氧浓度的提高和水力停留时间的延长而增加,但是系统对色度的去除效率一般不超过40%。溶解氧浓度由0.3 mg/L逐渐增大至2.4 mg/L,COD的去除率由40%提升至80%,而当溶解氧浓度大于1.0 mg/L后,UV254的去除率达到95%。水力停留时间在8~48 h时,COD去除效率由65%逐渐上升至85%左右;水力停留时间在8~32 h,UV254去除效率为68%~93%,超过32 h后水力停留时间对UV254去除效率的影响已不明显。     

循环流化床锅炉掺烧高炉煤气的应用

介绍了高炉煤气的主要燃烧特性，分析了高炉煤气在循环流化床锅炉中掺烧时对炉膛换热、过热蒸汽温度、锅炉负荷、热效率、分离装置以及环境的影响，并提出了消除不良影响的相应措施。     

燃煤电厂产生和排放的PM2.5中水溶性离子特征

为了认识我国燃煤电厂一次PM2.5排放特征,并定量评估大规模开展烟气脱硫与脱硝对其影响,本研究选取了国内一个煤粉炉电厂和一个循环流化床电厂,对其产生和排放的PM2.5进行现场测试,并进行水溶性离子组分的分析.结果表明,在所测的这两个电厂中,循环流化床电厂产生的PM2.5的质量浓度高于煤粉炉电厂产生的PM2.5的质量浓度,但是这两个电厂排放的PM2.5的质量浓度相当.产生此结果的主要原因是该循环流化床电厂配备的电袋复合除尘器比煤粉炉电厂的普通电除尘器对PM2.5去除效率更高.煤粉炉电厂产生PM2.5中水溶性离子浓度低于循环流化床电厂,但是煤粉炉电厂排放PM2.5中水溶性离子浓度却远远高于循环流化床电厂,表明煤粉炉电厂排放的PM2.5受脱硫和脱硝设施的影响较大.煤粉炉烟气脱硝过程中可能形成硫酸雾,烟气中的部分硫酸雾和过剩的NH3反应生成NH4HSO4进入颗粒相,同时降低了PM2.5的p H值;而脱硫过程中脱硫液的夹带也会导致NH+4和SO2-4进入PM2.5.所以,虽然两个电厂产生的PM2.5中水溶性离子均以Ca2+和SO2-4为主,但煤粉炉排放PM2.5中的水溶性离子则以NH+4和SO2-4为主.     

罕见冬季降雨中人工增雨微物理过程分析研究

用Micaps实时资料、CPAS卫星反演分析资料、NCEP再分析资料、ECMWF再分析资料,多普勒雷达PUP产品资料,对2015年12月1日夜间至2日凌晨沈阳地区罕见冬季降雨过程,进行了天气学分析、及大气微物理人工增雨作业条件分析,并结合沈阳地区人工增雨作业指标,得出本次降雨过程在厄尔尼诺正在发生的背景下,为常见的高空槽转东北冷涡型,水汽、动力等微物理作业条件也适合于开展人工增雨作业,并给出了相应的作业指导参数,为沈阳地区今后在冬季降雨天气过程中开展人工增雨作业积累了宝贵经验.