道路交通安全研究方法

介绍了交通安全的研究方法和预测模型 ,并对统计分析、模糊数学分析及灰色理论方法进行了比较。在此基础上 ,介绍了适应我国目前交通安全研究现状的交通事故灰色预测研究方法 ,对交通事故发展趋势进行了预测。论文给出了相应的灰色预测模型及预测方法 ,预测结果与实际情况较吻合     

生活(医院)污水处理设施运行情况分析

通过对江苏油田6套生活污水2套医院污水处理设施进行调查,针对其工艺流程、建设投资、处理能力、运行费用、运行状况及处理效果,分析了现有处理方法存在的问题,并提出了解决办法,对今后处理设施的管理、改进和处理技术有一定的参考价值。     

A two-stage ensemble Kalman filter for smooth data assimilation

The ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) applied to a simple fire propagation model by a nonlinear convection-diffusion-reaction partial differential equation breaks down because the EnKF creates nonphysical ensemble members with large gradients. A modification of the EnKF is proposed by adding a regularization term that penalizes large gradients. The method is implemented by applying the EnKF formulas twice, with the regularization term as another observation. The regularization step is also interpreted as a shrinkage of the prior distribution. Numerical results are given to illustrate success of the new method.     

The near-closure of a lagoon in western Iceland: how accurate were predictions of impacts on environment and biota?

The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) project instigated in connection with the near-closure of the large fjord-like lagoon Gilsfjörður in sub-arctic western Iceland with a road is described and discussed. Three phases were involved: a survey of pre-impact conditions of areas possibly affected as well as control areas, predictions of impacts of the road, and assessment of impacts up to 5–6 years after completion of the project. Emphasis was placed on birds and benthic flora and fauna. Although several predictions were upheld, others were not. The most unexpected changes were the elimination of kelp forest and some associated fauna inside the road as well as from large areas outside it. Feeding areas of the knot (Calidris canutus) and female eiders (Somateria mollissima) with ducklings also changed in unexpected ways. Unforeseen changes can partly be traced to inadequate knowledge of communities and their functioning in the area. The ecological requirements of many species involved, e.g. with respect to salinity, were imperfectly known. The predictions of engineers on the effects of the project on physical factors were not as accurate or detailed as desired. Some critical predictions of the engineers failed to make an impact on the ecologists, who then failed to predict some major changes in the biota, such as the disappearance of kelp forest outside the road. This study highlights some problems probably shared by many EIAs: (a) the near impossibility of finding suitable control areas, (b) the lack of ecological understanding of even common species, and possibly (c) inadequate communication between engineers and ecologists.     

The impact on tropospheric ozone formation on the implementation of a program for mobile emissions control: a case study in São Paulo,Brazil

The main sources of reactive hydrocarbons (RHC) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x), ozone precursors, in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) in the southeast of Brazil are emissions from vehicles fleets. Ambient surface ozone and particulate matter concentrations are air quality problem in the MASP. This study examined the impact that implementing a control program for mobile emissions has on ozone concentrations, An episode of high surface ozone concentrations occurring in the MASP during the March 13–15, 2000 period was used as a case study that was modeled for photochemical oxidants using the California Institute of Technology/Carnegie Mellon University three-dimensional photochemical model. Different scenarios were analyzed in relationship to the implementation of the Programa Nacional de Controle de Poluição por Veículos Automotores (PROCONVE, National Program to Control Motor Vehicle Pollution). Scenario 1 assumed that all vehicles were operating within PROCONVE guidelines. Scenarios 2 and 3 considered hypothetical situations in which the PROCONVE was not implemented. Scenario 2 set the premise that vehicles were using pre-1989 technology, whereas scenario 3 allowed for technological advances. A base case scenario, in which the official emission inventory for the year 2000 was employed, was also analyzed. The CIT model results show agreement with most measurements collected during 13–15 March 2000 modeling episode. Mean normalized bias for ozone, CO, RHC and NO _x are approximately 9.0, 6.0, ?8.3, 13.0%, respectively. Tropospheric ozone concentrations predicted for scenario 2 were higher than those predicted for scenarios 1, 3 and base case. This study makes a significant contribution to the evaluation of air quality improvement and provides data for use in evaluating the economic costs of implementing a program of motor vehicle pollution control aimed at protecting human health.     

基于U-D分解卡尔曼滤波地下水污染源溯源辨识

采用基于U-D分解的卡尔曼滤波与非线性规划优化模型相结合,溯源辨识出地下水污染源的个数、位置与释放强度.基于一个假想例子,建立地下水污染质数值模拟模型,运用灵敏度分析筛选出对模型影响较大的参数作为模型中的随机变量.然后,应用基于U-D分解的卡尔曼滤波辨识出污染源的个数与位置.在此基础上建立辨识污染源释放强度的优化模型,应用克里格插值法建立地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型的替代模型,代替模拟模型,作为约束条件嵌入优化模型中,运用遗传算法求解优化模型辨识出地下水污染源源强.结果表明：采用基于U-D分解的卡尔曼滤波方法能够保证滤波的稳定性,有效识别出污染源的个数和位置;非线性规划优化模型,可以辨识出污染源释放强度.在优化模型的求解过程中,应用克里格方法建立模拟模型的替代模型嵌入优化模型,能在保证一定精度的情况下,大幅度减少计算负荷和计算时间.     

曝气生物活性炭滤池深度处理垃圾渗滤液的效能研究

为了考察曝气生物活性炭滤池(BACF)深度处理垃圾渗滤液的效能,研究了填料填充度、曝气位置、气水比、水力停留时间和p H等影响因素对滤池去除有机物、氨氮和总氮的影响。结果表明,最佳的工艺运行条件为:填料填充度为80%,底部曝气,气水比为3:1,水力停留时间为8 h,p H为7~8。在最佳工艺条件下运行反应器,COD、氨氮和TN平均去除率分别达到85%、90%和57%,出水可达到实验设定水质要求。BACF具有较强的抗有机负荷能力,进水COD浓度在323至3 000 mg/L之间时,COD去除率稳定在80%。反应器受氨氮冲击负荷影响较大,氨氮进水浓度低于90mg/L时,出水可达到要求。     

基于变参数模型的北京碳排放影响因素研究

基于STIRPAT模型,建立了北京碳排放与经济发展水平、能源消耗强度、产业结构和能源消费结构间的变参数模型,得出以下结论：①经济发展水平、能源利用效率和能源消费结构与人均碳排放正相关;产业结构大多数年份与人均碳排放负相关.②经济发展水平对人均碳排放的变弹性系数最大,依次是能源消费结构、能源利用效率和产业结构.③经济发展水平、能源利用效率和产业结构的变弹性系数呈现先升后降再升的趋势,只是上升和下降转折点有差异,能源消费结构变弹性系数波动较大.     

Recursive residuals and model diagnostics for normal and non-normal state space models

Model diagnostics for normal and non-normal state space models are based on recursive residuals which are defined from the one-step ahead predictive distribution. Routine calculation of these residuals is discussed in detail. Various diagnostic tools are suggested to check, for example, for wrong observation distributions and for autocorrelation. The paper also discusses such topics as model diagnostics for discrete time series and model discrimination via Bayes factors. The case studies cover environmental applications such as analysing a time series of the number of daily rainfall occurrences and a time series of daily sulfur dioxide emissions.     

曝气生物滤池处理生活污水的试验研究

对升流式二级曝气生物滤池去除COD和NHs—N的效果进行了试验研究,并在各个阶段对比中找出最优的运行工况,从而达到节约能源,降低运行成本的目的。通过试验对水力负荷、有机负荷、气水比等参数的变化对去除COD和NH3-N效果的影响。研究结果表明,在进水水力负荷为1～4m3／m^2·h、有机负荷为4-13kgCOD／ms·d及气水比1：1～3：1的工艺条件下,COD和NH3-N的出水水质均能满足杂用水需要。