Sustainability Assessment of Future Scenarios: Methodology and Application to Mountain Areas of Europe

BioScene (scenarios for reconciling biodiversity conservation with declining agriculture use in mountain areas in Europe) was a three-year project (2002–2005) funded by the European Union’s Fifth Framework Programme, and aimed to investigate the implications of agricultural restructuring and decline for biodiversity conservation in the mountain areas of Europe. The research took a case study approach to the analysis of the biodiversity processes and outcomes of different scenarios of agri-environmental change in six countries (France, Greece, Norway, Slovakia, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom) covering the major biogeographical regions of Europe. The project was coordinated by Imperial College London, and each study area had a multidisciplinary team including ecologists and social and economic experts, which sought a comprehensive understanding of the drivers for change and their implications for sustainability. A key component was the sustainability assessment (SA) of the alternative scenarios. This article discusses the development and application of the SA methodology developed for BioScene. While the methodology was objectives-led, it was also strongly grounded in baseline ecological and socio-economic data. This article also describes the engagement of stakeholder panels in each study area and the use of causal chain analysis for understanding the likely implications for land use and biodiversity of strategic drivers of change under alternative scenarios for agriculture and rural policy and for biodiversity management. Finally, this article draws conclusions for the application of SA more widely, its use with scenarios, and the benefits of stakeholder engagement in the SA process.     

Exploring farmer preference shaping in international agricultural climate change adaptation regimes

Questions of equity, justice, and fairness in the international agricultural adaptation regime have emerged in recent years, prompting interest in regime power dynamics. Here, a three-dimensional conceptual framework of ‘power as domination’ is applied to the UNFCCC adaptation regime. We argue that this ‘power-over’ framing is an important lens through which to view adaptation, a field dominated by ‘power-to’, capacity-based constructs. The framework distinguishes between power-over manifesting through decision-making, agenda setting and preference shaping. Through a literature review we demonstrate that first and second dimension behavioral views of power-over fail to account for the subtle ways in which the interests and preferences of smallholder farmers are unknowingly shaped and restricted within the regime. Potential sources of third dimension preference shaping power are explored in a survey with high-level decision makers involved in National Adaptation Plans (NAP) development in seven countries. The results suggest that several inter-related features of the international agriculture adaptation regime collectively contribute to the shaping of interests and preferences of smallholders: prevailing discourses of uncertainty and the perceived limited capacity of smallholders; the resulting privileged status of ‘expert’ decision makers; the predominance of neoliberal development rationalities; and systemic biases resulting from the nation state as the principle unit of UNFCCC negotiation. These forces lie beyond the explanatory scope of first and second dimensions of power-over and help to explain why stakeholder engagement in adaptation decision making remains superficial in nature and why adaptation responses in agriculture can be considered ‘common and non-differentiated’. We argue for increased awareness of third dimension manifestations and impacts of power in adaptation literature to facilitate the improved participation of marginalized stakeholders in UNFCCC and domestic adaptation decision making forums, to increase the diversity of adaptation options available to smallholders, and ultimately, to improve the attribution of responsibility for adaptation outcomes.     

Long-term increase in climatic dryness in the East-Mediterranean as evidenced for the island of Samos

The Eastern Mediterranean region is among the regions which were predicted to become drier under IPCC climate scenarios. Here, we document a gradual reduction of rainfall and tree growth and the loss of rural springs during the last decades of the twentieth century. Years with severe drought are associated with very low tree growth (dendrochronology) and dry falling of springs as evidenced by interviews with local stakeholders. The paper discusses the consequences of accelerating drought on natural vegetation and agriculture and points at the interaction with fire dynamics and economy, both likely to enhance the drought effect.     

持续农业,气候变化与有害生物持续治理

21世纪，随着世界人口的增加，首先将面临着对粮食及其它农产品的需求量的增加。要达到粮食稳定和人类的需求量，其制约的因素很多。本文就气候变化、有害生物的持续治理、对持续农业的影响进行了探讨。     

Benthic Macroinvertebrate Responses to Increasing Levels of Cattle Grazing in Blue Ridge Mountain Streams, Virginia, USA

The relationship between benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages and cattle density was assessed from fall 2002 through spring 2004 in five small streams that represented a gradient of cattle grazing intensity. All study stream reaches were in pasture with no woody riparian vegetation, but varied in the intensity of cattle grazing (0 cattle ha⁻¹ at site 1 to 2.85 cattle ha⁻¹ at site 5). Regression analysis indicated highly significant and strong macroinvertebrate metric responses to cattle density during most sampling periods. The majority of metrics responded negatively to increased grazing, while a few (total taxa richness, number of sensitive taxa, and % collector filterers) increased along the gradient before declining at the most heavily grazed sites. Total number of sensitive taxa and % Coleoptera had the strongest relationship with cattle density throughout the study period. During some sampling periods, nearly 80% of the variation in these metrics was explained by cattle density. The elmid beetle, Oulimnius, had a particularly strong negative response to the grazing gradient. Study site groupings based on taxa composition, using detrended correspondence analysis (DCA), indicated that benthic samples collected from the reference site and light rotational grazing site were more similar in macroinvertebrate taxa composition than samples collected from the intermediate grazing and heavy grazing sites. Our findings demonstrate that biological integrity, as measured by benthic macroinvertebrate metrics and assemblage composition, is highly related to cattle density in small streams in the Blue Ridge mountains, Virginia, USA. This suggests that the degree of agricultural intensity should be given consideration in stream assessments, as well as land use planning and regulatory decisions.     

Typical atmospheric haze during crop harvest season in northeastern China: A case in the Changchun region

This study presents the mass concentrations of PM_(2.5),O_3,SO_2 and NOxat one urban,one suburban and two rural locations in the Changchun region from September 25 to October 272013. Major chemical components of PM_(2.5)at the four sites were daily sampled and analyzed. Most of daily concentrations of SO_2(7–82 μg/m~3),O_3(27–171 μg/m~3) and NOx(14–213 μg/m~3) were below the limits of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard(NAAQS)in China. However,PM_(2.5)concentrations(143–168 μg/m~3) were 2-fold higher than NAAQS.Higher PM_(2.5)concentrations(~ 150 μg/m~3) were measured during the pre-harvest and harvest at the urban site,while PM_(2.5)concentrations significantly increased from 250 to400 μg m~(-3) at suburban and rural sites with widespread biomass burning. At all sites,PM_(2.5)components were dominated by organic carbon(OC) and followed by soluble component sulfate(SO_4~(2-)),ammonium(NH_4~+) and nitrate(NO_3~-). Compared with rural sites,urban site had a higher mineral contribution and lower potassium(K~+and K) contribution to PM_(2.5).Severe atmospheric haze events that occurred from October 21 to 23 were attributed to strong source emissions(e.g.,biomass burning) and unfavorable air diffusion conditions.Furthermore,coal burning originating from winter heating supply beginning on October 18 increased the atmospheric pollutant emissions. For entire crop harvest period,the Positive Matrix Factorization(PMF) analysis indicated five important emission contributors in the Changchun region,as follows: secondary aerosol(39%),biomass burning(20%),supply heating(18%),soil/road dust(14%) and traffic(9%).     

Impact of land use on the biodiversity integrity of the moist sub-biome of the grassland biome, South Africa

South Africa's moist grassland harbours globally significant biodiversity, supplies essential ecosystem services, supports crop and livestock agriculture, forestry and settlement, yet is poorly conserved. Ongoing transformation and limited opportunity for expanding the protected area network require instead that biodiversity conservation is 'mainstreamed' within other land uses. This exercise sought to identify the relative compatibility of 10 land uses (conservation, livestock or game ranching, tourism/recreation, rural settlement, dryland cropping, irrigated cropping, dairy farming, plantation forestry, and urban settlement) with maintaining biodiversity integrity. This was assessed using 46 indicators for biodiversity integrity that covered landscape composition, structure, and functioning. Data was integrated into a single measure per land use through application of the analytic hierarchy process, with supporting information gained from interviews with experts. The rank order of importance amongst indicators was landscape structure, functioning and composition. Consistent differences among land uses for all three categories revealed two clear groupings. Conservation, livestock or game ranching had the lowest impact and retained substantial natural asset, while that for tourism/recreation was intermediate. All other land uses had a severe impact. Impact on biodiversity integrity depended mainly on the extent of transformation and fragmentation, which accounted for the greatest impact on habitats and species, and impairment of landscape functioning. It is suggested that a strategic intervention for maintaining biodiversity integrity of moist grassland is to support livestock or game ranching and limit ongoing urban sprawl.     

Socially Strategic Ecological Restoration: A Game-Theoretic Analysis Shortened: Socially Strategic Restoration

Major transitions in a multiple-use or mosaic landscape often lead to frictions among new and existing users. In this article, we consider the problem of ecological restoration within a mosaic landscape in which restoration activities elicit feedbacks from individuals and groups that are harmed by restoration outcomes. Using game theory, we identify three potential outcomes ranked by the extent of restoration of ecosystem services and processes: nonstrategic, noncooperative strategic equilibrium, and cooperative bargaining solution. We identify conditions under which additional restoration can decrease the overall flow of ecosystem services and processes. A “strategic restorationist” will cease new restoration activities when the net effect of defensive response moves by farmers offsets gains. Imperfect information regarding expected payoffs to farmers can lead to inefficient overshooting or undershooting the optimal scale, geographical positioning, and form of restoration. Gains to all parties from cooperation might exist. As a case study and to aid model design, we consider restoration activities on California’s upper Sacramento River. An erratum to this article is available at .     

关于我国农业持续发展机制的探讨

分析了农业发展过程中的一系列矛盾及我国在农业持续发展方面与发达国家的差异 ,提出农业发展持续的机制 ,主要由以下几方面内容构成 :人口控制机制 ;资源保护与更新机制 ;环境成本控制机制 ;土地投入机制 ;新技术开发与推广机制。     

云南省农业自然灾害区划指标之探讨

自然灾害区划是防灾减灾和灾害科学研究的重要内容，而正确地选取区划指标是进行区划工作的关键环节。本文作为《云南省农业自然灾害区划研究》课题的一部分，在探讨各单项灾害（干旱、洪涝、低温霜冻、风雹、水土流失）区划指标的基础上，提出了综合农业自然灾害区划的基本指标－即“综合农业自然灾害指数”，并对指标进行了分级，为区划工作提供了依据。