基于贝叶斯网络的机械安全性评估模型研究

重点阐述了基于贝叶斯网络的机械安全性评估模型的建立过程,应用贝叶斯网络建立了开式压力机安全性评估模型,对冲手事故模型中的共因失效节点进行了说明,并最终计算得出开式压力机冲手事故的发生概率.计算结果分析表明:对于系统基本事件之间有共因和相关关系的系统,BN计算结果使得事故后果概率明显增大,设计者和管理者不能忽略共因和相关关系对系统风险的影响.     

Trace elements and microbiological parameters in farmed Nile tilapia with emphasis on muscle,water, sediment and feed

Fish may bioaccumulate contaminants from the aquatic environment and extend them to the food chain provoking risks to human health. This study evaluated the microbiological parameters of the pond´s water and trace elements concentrations in samples of water, sediment, feed and muscle of farmed Nile tilapia used for human consumption in southern Brazil. A total of 240 fish were collected from 12 tilapia farms. Sediment, tank water and dry ration used in the animals' diet were collected for analysis. Analysis were performed by Energy Dispersion X-ray Fluorescence (EDXRF), Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometer (ICP-MS), Induced Coupled Plasma Optical Emission Spectrometer (ICP-OES), and Atomic Absorption Spectrometer (AAS-VGA). In addition, the microbiological analysis of the water was carried out. The concentrations of Se, I, Fe, Cu and Zn in fish muscle were higher than the recommended by the Brazilian legislation, considering the advised daily intake for adults. The arsenic element had concentrations above the limit stipulated by the present Brazilian legislation, observed in all samples of muscle, sediment and tank water highlighting a possible environmental and fish contamination by the toxic element. Moreover, the arsenic concentration in the water presented a positive correlation (ρ?=?0.33) with arsenic in the muscle, suggesting that tilapia is a good environmental bioindicator, once they properly reflect the levels of arsenic in the water. It is suggested to perform an arsenic speciation for quantification of the inorganic form and accurate assessment of the degree of toxicity in the muscle samples and risks it can bring to human health. Regarding the other potentially toxic elements (Hg, Pb and Cd), and microbiological analysis of water it was verified that the consumption of the fish in question does not raise risks, since the values are within a quality benchmark established by law. The concentration of total and fecal coliforms in pond´s water in the facilities was in agreement with the microbiological indexes required by the legislation of CONAMA class II. Western region presented the lowest concentrations of fecal coliforms when compared to the other regions. There was no significant difference in the microbiological counts of total heterotrophic bacteria, Vibrio spp. and Pseudomonas spp. among the regions.     

中国工业水污染及其成因的de Bruyn模型分析

选取废水、挥发酚、氰化物、COD、石油类和氨氮为中国工业水污染指标,利用分解分析方法将2004—2010年间的污染变化分解为规模效应、结构效应、污染治理效应、清洁技术效应和广义技术效应。结果显示,这5类效应的平均作用强度分别为2.08%、3.04%、15.61%、17.37%和32.88%,其中规模效应和广义技术效应是影响工业水污染的主导效应。各类效应对不同污染物的作用方向并不完全一致,规模效应促进污染物排放量的增加;结构效应以加重污染为主,污染治理效应和清洁技术效应以减轻污染为主;广义技术效应的平均作用强度和负向作用概率均最大,是现阶段中国工业水污染控制最为有效的手段。     

上消化道出血的常见诱因分析及护理对策

本文对上消化道出血的常见诱因进行了分析,并对临床护理方法进行了实践探讨,以求对上消化道出血的护理工作提供参考.     

Short-term effects of an oil spill on the West coast of the Cape Peninsula, South Africa

In 1994, the sinking of the ‘Apollo Sea’ off the West coast of South Africa led to the deposition of ca. 2 500 tons of heavy fuel oil over 150 km of coastline. The impact of the spill on rocky shore invertebrates, rock-pool fish fauna and rock lobsters was assessed by conducting surveys shortly after the spill, and again two months later. Where possible, results of these surveys were compared with existing data from before the sinking of the Apollo Sea. Among the fish fauna of rock-pools, changes in total density of fishes were largely due to changes in the abundance ofClinus superciliosus and were within the range of natural variation for the species and the community as a whole. Community structure of the rock-pool fish fauna also remained unaffected. At three of four impacted rocky shore sites no changes could be detected in overall benthic community structure, although the winkleNodilittorina africana was affected. At the fourth site, a boulder beach, statistical analysis showed distinct differences in community structure between heavily and lightly contaminated areas, as well as between all areas compared with previously existing data. There were also significant changes in the lightly oiled areas between the first and second surveys after the spill. Oil-fouled lobster were found at one of three sites investigated. Ca. 7 % of the seabed in this particular area was polluted. Antennae and forelegs of almost all lobsters in the vicinity of the oil were fouled. Examination of the gut-contents confirmed that oil inhibits the ability of lobster to feed. Although there was no evidence that mortalities of lobster were caused by the spill, growth rates may be reduced by the decreased feeding rate. Overall, the impact of the spill was strikingly less than might have been predicted from the effects of other oil spills. Nomenclature: Names of fish species follow Smith & Heemstra (1986).     

丽水小盆地型城市酸雨现状及成因分析

根据浙江省丽水市 1 986— 2 0 0 2年酸雨监测数据 ,对该市酸雨污染的现状特征及成因进行了分析。结果表明 ,丽水市酸雨污染严重 ,并呈逐年加重的趋势。冬、春季酸雨率高 ,降水 pH值低 ;降水的主要离子SO42 -与NO-3比值逐年下降 ,说明大气污染有从煤烟型转为煤烟型与机动车尾气混合型的趋势 ;煤耗量、地型地貌特点、低空逆温层频率、地面弱风频率对酸雨率和降水 pH值有明显的影响。     

一起桥式起重机伤亡事故的原因及预防措施

本文介绍了一起桥式起重机伤亡事故的经过、发生事故的原因,认为是设备存在严重隐患和管理不完善。提出了预防起重机械事故的措施。     

Fish Community Structure as a Measure of Degradation and Rehabilitation of Riparian Systems in an Agricultural Drainage Basin

/ Assessing the health of ecological components of agroecosystems may be accomplished by examining changes in the drainage basin, which serves as an integrator of the agroecosystem landscape. In this study we examined fish communities in terms of an array of indicators of structure and related these to changes in riparian vegetation and agricultural practice. Evidence suggests management practices designed to foster healthier environments by, for example, reestablishing riparian vegetation were associated with positive impacts on the integrity of the fish community. At the same time, continued intensification of agricultural practices in parts of the drainage basin in recent years likely has had an off-setting influence in overall improvements in agroecosystem health. Assessments of changes in the structure of the fish associations provide the balance sheet by which the counteracting influences can be aggregated and assessed.KEY WORDS: Fish community structure; Riparian system; Agricultural drainage basin     

世界煤炭资源流动的时空格局及成因分析

基于1990-2016年的统计数据,采用场理论研究世界煤炭资源流动的时空格局变化及其成因,揭示近30年来世界煤炭资源的流动状态及其演变过程。研究结果显示：（1）2016年世界煤炭的输出总量达12.25亿t,比1990年增加了10.13亿t,年均增长6.98%,其中澳大利亚、印尼和俄罗斯等是主要的煤炭输出国,印度、日本、中国和韩国是主要的煤炭输入国;（2）以场理论的位势、流场分布、流动迹线角度分析,世界煤炭资源的流动以北美洲、中南美洲和非洲为源流场,以欧洲及欧亚大陆、中东和亚太为汇流场,在澳大利亚—东亚、印尼—东亚/印度之间形成主要运输航线;（3）资源空间分布、供需匹配程度、空间距离、市场因素和国家政策等是煤炭资源流动的主要动因。研究发现：虽然中国煤炭储量丰富,但是煤炭消费数量庞大,仅可维持72年,必须重视煤炭的进口和储备工作。该研究对于中国科学制定产业政策具有重要价值。     

Bioconcentration of n-dodecane and its highly branched isomer 2,2,4,6,6-pentamethylheptane in fathead minnows

Petroleum products are complex mixtures of hydrocarbons. They are important as constituents of fuels and lubricants, and as key raw materials for the chemicals industry. Since there is a potential for accidental releases to the aquatic environment, bioaccumulation of higher hydrocarbons is of concern. Here, the bioconcentration behaviour of two representative hydrocarbons, the dodecane isomers n-dodecane and 2,2,4,6,6-pentamethylheptane (PMH), was investigated in fathead minnows at concentrations in water below their maximum aqueous solubility. The concentration of n-dodecane in fish did not exceed our method limit of detection of 60 μg/kg. In contrast, PMH could be quantified in fish. No significant increase in the ratio of PMH concentrations in fish to water could be detected indicating that an exposure time of 4–10 days is sufficient to approach steady-state. For n-dodecane the upper limit of the bioconcentration factor (BCF) is estimated by dividing the method limit of detection by the exposure concentration and a value of 240 l/kg is derived. For PMH the bioconcentration factor, estimated as the average fish/water concentration ratio during the steady-state part of the experiment, ranges between 880 and 3500 l/kg. The BCFs of both compounds are small compared to their hydrophobicity. Given that both linear and branched hydrocarbons are known to be biotransformed by fish, it appears that efficient metabolism of the test compounds in fathead minnows prevents bioaccumulation.