江淮流域大洪水的因子分析及成因链初步构造

结合 1998年长江流域的特大洪水 ,提出了洪水成因链的概念 ,分析了各个物理因子对江淮洪水的影响。指出影响江淮洪水的物理因子都是层层相接、环环相扣的 ,它们组成了一个互相联系、互为因果的洪水成因链。成因链上物理因子之间的正反馈作用和消长作用 ,导致成因链上各个因子的致洪理论都不能完全地自圆其说 ,因而也无法完全确定地用于洪水预测。只有深入探讨洪水成因链上物理因子之间的正反馈作用和消长作用 ,对它们进行全面综合的诊断分析 ,才能提高江淮洪水预测的准确率。     

松花江干流洪水与1998年松嫩大水分析--发生规律及成因

松花江干流洪水的发生有24年和3～4年变化周期.洪水出现有明显的阶段性,在上世纪可分为4段1911-1914;1930-1940;1954-1958;1984-1998年.随着时间的推移,洪水发生频次明显增加.分析得出,嫩江流域及第二松花江和拉林河流域7,8月的过量降水是造成洪水发生的直接原因.还分析了造成洪水的高空500hPa环流背景,7,8月西藏高原至北美阿拉斯加距平场分布为“ - -“流型,鄂霍次克海为阻塞高压,东北区为低压槽控制.在大水年春季,阿留申低槽加深,并向西延伸,乌拉尔高压形成并东移加强.1998年松嫩大水的发生基本符合上述规律和环流原因.     

Pilot survey of a broad range of priority pollutants in sediment and fish from the Ebro river basin (NE Spain)

Priority organic pollutants were investigated in sediments and fish collected along the Ebro river basin (NE Spain) to evaluate their occurrence, transport and bioavailability. Sediments were collected in 18 sites and two species of fish were captured in nine sites according to the availability in each area. The sampling sites covered industrial, urban and agricultural areas. Four methods were used to detect 20 organochlorine compounds (OCs), 8 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, 3 organotin compounds, 2 alkylphenols and 40 polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) from purified extracts. The contamination pattern was site specific and no downstream increase in concentration of pollutants was observed but rather a generalized low level diffuse pollution. Target compounds were detected in sediments at 0.01 to 2331 microg/kg dry weight, and only OCs and PBDEs were accumulated in benthopelagic fish. Toxicological assessment was performed according to predicted environmental levels and revealed sites where adverse effects could occur.     

基于事故深度调查的城市交通事故特征分析

为探索适合我国的事故数据深度采集标准,并分析城市道路交通事故特征及致因,基于《道路交通事故深度调查信息采集表》(简称采集表),调查人员随交警赴事故现场随机详细调查87起城市道路交通事故。借鉴"Haddon Matrix"思想建立致因分析矩阵系统,分析事故的致因。发现采集表对事故地点、事故形态及原因项分类更加具体、明确,女性驾驶员的事故发生率略低于男性驾驶员,驾驶员年龄超过60岁后,发生事故的危险性显著提高,"交叉口影响区"事故50%由变更车道引起,非机动车驾驶员未戴安全头盔是造成严重伤害的重要原因。     

基于贝叶斯网络的机械安全性评估模型研究

重点阐述了基于贝叶斯网络的机械安全性评估模型的建立过程,应用贝叶斯网络建立了开式压力机安全性评估模型,对冲手事故模型中的共因失效节点进行了说明,并最终计算得出开式压力机冲手事故的发生概率.计算结果分析表明:对于系统基本事件之间有共因和相关关系的系统,BN计算结果使得事故后果概率明显增大,设计者和管理者不能忽略共因和相关关系对系统风险的影响.     

上消化道出血的常见诱因分析及护理对策

本文对上消化道出血的常见诱因进行了分析,并对临床护理方法进行了实践探讨,以求对上消化道出血的护理工作提供参考.     

Short-term effects of an oil spill on the West coast of the Cape Peninsula, South Africa

In 1994, the sinking of the ‘Apollo Sea’ off the West coast of South Africa led to the deposition of ca. 2 500 tons of heavy fuel oil over 150 km of coastline. The impact of the spill on rocky shore invertebrates, rock-pool fish fauna and rock lobsters was assessed by conducting surveys shortly after the spill, and again two months later. Where possible, results of these surveys were compared with existing data from before the sinking of the Apollo Sea. Among the fish fauna of rock-pools, changes in total density of fishes were largely due to changes in the abundance ofClinus superciliosus and were within the range of natural variation for the species and the community as a whole. Community structure of the rock-pool fish fauna also remained unaffected. At three of four impacted rocky shore sites no changes could be detected in overall benthic community structure, although the winkleNodilittorina africana was affected. At the fourth site, a boulder beach, statistical analysis showed distinct differences in community structure between heavily and lightly contaminated areas, as well as between all areas compared with previously existing data. There were also significant changes in the lightly oiled areas between the first and second surveys after the spill. Oil-fouled lobster were found at one of three sites investigated. Ca. 7 % of the seabed in this particular area was polluted. Antennae and forelegs of almost all lobsters in the vicinity of the oil were fouled. Examination of the gut-contents confirmed that oil inhibits the ability of lobster to feed. Although there was no evidence that mortalities of lobster were caused by the spill, growth rates may be reduced by the decreased feeding rate. Overall, the impact of the spill was strikingly less than might have been predicted from the effects of other oil spills. Nomenclature: Names of fish species follow Smith & Heemstra (1986).     

丽水小盆地型城市酸雨现状及成因分析

根据浙江省丽水市 1 986— 2 0 0 2年酸雨监测数据 ,对该市酸雨污染的现状特征及成因进行了分析。结果表明 ,丽水市酸雨污染严重 ,并呈逐年加重的趋势。冬、春季酸雨率高 ,降水 pH值低 ;降水的主要离子SO42 -与NO-3比值逐年下降 ,说明大气污染有从煤烟型转为煤烟型与机动车尾气混合型的趋势 ;煤耗量、地型地貌特点、低空逆温层频率、地面弱风频率对酸雨率和降水 pH值有明显的影响。     

一起桥式起重机伤亡事故的原因及预防措施

本文介绍了一起桥式起重机伤亡事故的经过、发生事故的原因,认为是设备存在严重隐患和管理不完善。提出了预防起重机械事故的措施。     

Fish Community Structure as a Measure of Degradation and Rehabilitation of Riparian Systems in an Agricultural Drainage Basin

/ Assessing the health of ecological components of agroecosystems may be accomplished by examining changes in the drainage basin, which serves as an integrator of the agroecosystem landscape. In this study we examined fish communities in terms of an array of indicators of structure and related these to changes in riparian vegetation and agricultural practice. Evidence suggests management practices designed to foster healthier environments by, for example, reestablishing riparian vegetation were associated with positive impacts on the integrity of the fish community. At the same time, continued intensification of agricultural practices in parts of the drainage basin in recent years likely has had an off-setting influence in overall improvements in agroecosystem health. Assessments of changes in the structure of the fish associations provide the balance sheet by which the counteracting influences can be aggregated and assessed.KEY WORDS: Fish community structure; Riparian system; Agricultural drainage basin