Efficiency of composite sampling for estimating a lognormal distribution

In many environmental studies measuring the amount of a contaminant in a sampling unit is expensive. In such cases, composite sampling is often used to reduce data collection cost. However, composite sampling is known to be beneficial for estimating the mean of a population, but not necessarily for estimating the variance or other parameters. As some applications, for example, Monte Carlo risk assessment, require an estimate of the entire distribution, and as the lognormal model is commonly used in environmental risk assessment, in this paper we investigate efficiency of composite sampling for estimating a lognormal distribution. In particular, we examine the magnitude of savings in the number of measurements over simple random sampling, and the nature of its dependence on composite size and the parameters of the distribution utilizing simulation and asymptotic calculations.     

水质自动监测中的质量保证与质量控制

质量保证与质量控制是水质自动监测中十分重要的技术工作和管理工作,包括人员素质、运行与管理机制、试剂与标准溶液的配制及文件记录等.在实际工作中,监测人员可根据仪器的运行状况,定期时仪器进行校准、标准溶液的核查、比对实验验证及试剂有效性检查,用以检查仪器的基线飘移情况.如果分析中出现一个异常值,它的前后均为正常值,这种数值大多是由仪器的进样、仪器内部试剂传输等原因所致,如果发生原因不明的数据异常,就要及时检查系统的各个环节并采集实际水样进行人工分析,直至查清原因,剔除异常值,并在周报中加以说明,以确保上报数据的准确性、精密性和可比性.     

摩擦压力机打击力的测量误差分析

对摩擦压力机打击力测量不准确的现象进行了试验验证 ,并从理论上分析了摩擦压力机打击力测量误差产生的原因 ,探讨了摩擦压力机滑块初速度、工件质量和刚度以及测力传感器质量和刚度对摩擦压力机打击力测量误差的影响。     

基于MAIB事故报告的人为失误灰色关联分析

人为失误作为海上交通事故的主要原因,受到多种因素的影响。为了识别这些影响因素,避免或减少因人为失误导致的海上交通事故,基于96件英国海事调查委员会(MAIB)事故报告,应用熵加权灰色关联分析,分别按船旗国、船舶类型、事故类型计算人为失误与影响因素之间的关联度。结果表明,能力/技能/知识、团队协作、程序和现行规程、设备、交流(内部和外部)和管理/检验/检查是影响人为失误的主要因素。     

自由飞行下基于航空器定位误差修正的碰撞风险研究

自由飞行能够提高空域容量从而缓解空域拥挤问题,在保障自由飞行安全性的基础上尽可能减小飞机的安全间距,需要研究自由飞行条件下飞机的安全评估问题。分析了所需CNS性能、防撞系统、风的因素等自由飞行下航空器定位误差的影响因素,考虑到航空器定位误差在短时间内具有累积性,提出采用INS、GPS数据融合算法对定位误差进行周期性修正。给出修正后的航空器定位误差分布在时间上的变化规律,并将其运用到自由飞行下碰撞风险评估中。结果表明,碰撞风险随安全间距增加呈下降趋势,以1.5×10-8次/飞行小时的目标安全水平为例,对航空器定位误差修正的最小安全间距为8 600 m,不对航空器定位误差进行修正的最小安全间距为9 100 m。     

Dynamic temperature model for proton exchange membrane fuel cell using online variations in load current and ambient temperature

This paper presents a dynamic temperature model for a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) system. The proposed model overcomes the complexity of conventional models using first-order expressions consisting of load current and ambient temperature. The proposed model also incorporates a PEMFC cooling system, which depends upon the temperature difference between events. A dynamic algorithm is developed to detect load changing events and calculate instantaneous PEMFC temperature variations. The parameters of the model are extracted by employing the lightning search algorithm (LSA). The temperature characteristics of the NEXA 1.2 kW PEMFC system are experimentally studied to validate model performance. The results show that the proposed model output and the temperature data obtained from experiments for linear and abrupt changes in PEMFC load current are in agreement. The root-mean-square error between the model output and experimental results is less than 0.9. Moreover, the proposed model outperforms the conventional models and provides advantages such as simplicity and adaptability for low and high sampling data rates of input variables, namely, load current and ambient temperature. The model is not only helpful for simulations but also suitable for dynamic real-time controllers and emulators.     

一种基于离心机试验辨识惯导平台误差系数的方法

针对离心机试验中惯导平台误差系数辨识问题,提出了一种基于谐波分析辨识误差系数的方法。首先,根据惯性器件误差模型推导了离心机试验下陀螺和加速度计的输出方程,其输出由各阶谐波分量构成。然后通过傅里叶分析得到各项谐波的幅值。最后根据谐波幅值与各项误差系数之间的关系反解得到各项误差系数。仿真结果验证了方法的有效性。     

惯性系统飞行试验精度检验方法

目的针对传统工具误差分离方法得到的分离结果不够准确可信的问题,提出了一种利用等效误差实现对惯性系统精度判定的方法。方法首先基于主成分分析,定义等效误差,等效误差具有独立、无偏的性质。然后提出基于等效误差的假设检验判断惯性系统精度是否合格的方法。结果算例表明采用该方法可以实现惯性系统精度的可信判断。结论该方法解决了以往方法误差大,分析结论可信度不高的问题。     

PM_(2.5)和PM_(2.5~10)资料同化及在南京青奥会期间的应用试验

建立了面向PM_(2.5)和PM10观测资料的三维变分同化系统,并在南京地区青奥会期间进行了同化和预报试验.同化系统的控制变量为PM_(2.5)和PM_(2.5~10)(PM10中扣除PM_(2.5)后剩余部分),利用南京地区2014年8月的WRF-Chem模拟结果,估计了PM_(2.5)和PM_(2.5~10)的背景误差协方差,发现在水平和垂直方向上PM_(2.5)的相关系数随距离的衰减均小于PM_(2.5~10),这可能与PM_(2.5)粒径小、生命史长,在大气中传播地更远有关.利用南京及周边区域的134个监测站PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)逐时观测资料,对青奥会期间(2014年8月16~28日)进行滚动同化和预报试验,并利用模式最内层观测资料进行检验分析,结果表明同化对初始场有显著改进,PM_(2.5)和PM10的相关系数均提高53%以上,均方根误差降低55%以上,平均偏差则降低了90%左右;同化试验对其后的预报场也有明显改进,正效应可以持续到20h以后,模式对PM10的预报效果好于PM_(2.5).     

Kinetic and isotherm error optimization studies for adsorption of atrazine and imidacloprid on bark of Eucalyptus tereticornis L.

The aim of this study was to establish the bark of Eucalyptus tereticornis L. (EB) as a low cost bio-adsorbent for the removal of imidacloprid and atrazine from aqueous medium. The pseudo-first-order (PFO), pseudo-second-order (PSO), Elovich and intra-particle diffusion (IPD) models were used to describe the kinetic data and rate constants were evaluated. Adsorption data was analysed using ten 2-, 3- and 4-parameter models viz. Freundlich, Jovanovic, Langmuir, Temkin, Koble–Corrigan, Redlich–Peterson, Sips, Toth, Radke–Prausnitz, and Fritz-Schluender isotherms. Six error functions were used to compute the best fit single component isotherm parameters by nonlinear regression analysis. The results showed that the sorption of atrazine was better explained by PSO model, whereas the sorption of imidacloprid followed the PFO kinetic model. Isotherm model optimization analysis suggested that the Freundlich along with Koble–Corrigan, Toth and Fritz-Schluender were the best models to predict atrazine and imidacloprid adsorption onto EB. Error analysis suggested that minimization of chi-square (χ²) error function provided the best determination of optimum parameter sets for all the isotherms.