基于位置误差概率模型的物流无人机安全间隔评估方法研究

针对未来多架物流无人机飞行在同一航线可能引起的安全冲突问题,提出规划无人机之间的安全间隔以规避运行风险.根据无人机在地面控制系统监控下的飞行特点,结合位置误差概率模型,综合考虑无人机定位误差、速度误差以及侧风的影响,依次建立无人机之间纵向、侧向和垂直方向的碰撞风险评估模型,并得出ICAO安全目标水平下的最小安全间隔.选...     

基于PS-InSAR技术探测地表形变的实验研究

常规合成孔径雷达差分干涉测量技术在区域地表形变探测中存在时空失相关和大气延迟的影响,为了克服或减弱它们的影响,分离和提取线性、非线性形变时间序列以及地形数据误差与大气信号,以西安市沉降场为研究对象,用17景Envisat数据进行了实验研究,并与常规D-InSAR结果比较,证实了PS-InSAR技术用于地表形变监测的有效性.     

CREAM失误概率预测法在驾驶舱机组判断与决策过程中的应用

CREAM强调人在生产活动中的绩效输出不是孤立的随机性行为,而是依赖于人完成任务时所处的环境或工作条件,它通过影响人的认知控制模式和其在不同认知活动中的效应,最终决定人的响应行为。在驾驶舱内,机组的绩效输出不仅仅是人的自身行为,还依赖于其完成任务时所处的情景环境,所以CREAM方法能够结合驾驶舱环境对机组的认知差错进行分析。在飞行中,驾驶舱内机组非常重要的一个环节是判断与决策过程,这一过程中包括询问、讨论、确定方案、执行、反馈五个环节。本文将通过分析这五个环节的相互关系及影响,以明确这种讨论过程是减少机组人为差错发生的一种有益方式,然后应用CREAM的预测法对这五个环节进行定量化分析,得出机组判断与决策过程的失误概率,完成对机组认知行为的客观评价,并为以后能够定量化研究驾驶舱内飞行员认知差错提供方法的借鉴。     

综合孔径微波辐射计信道误差补偿研究

在一维综合孔径微波辐射计的理想信道仿真模型基础上对接收机信道的非理想特性进行分析并建立仿真模型,该模型包含了信道间的串扰、不平衡度、乘法器前端输入失衡等多种误差因素,最后从相位误差和系统噪声对干涉相关测量产生的贡献入手,提出有效抑制误差的亮温补偿方法,进而得到更接近真实亮温分布的反演结果.     

Villains,victims, and heroes: Accounting for the roles human activity plays in LOPA scenarios

When a team is analyzing a LOPA scenario, the team needs to consider all three roles played by human interaction in the scenario: that of cause, as a result of human error; that of receptor, both in terms of safety impacts (inside the fence line) and community impacts (outside the fence line); and that of independent layer of protection (IPL), considering both administrative controls and human responses. Frequently, the nature of these three roles are inter-related, and setting guidance that is internally consistent is important to using LOPA to assess risk rather than as a means to game the analyses to simply achieve a wished-for result.A number of criteria have been proposed to quantify human involvement, typically as cause, as receptor, or as IPL. Establishing a framework to look at all three in a unified way is more likely to result in analyses that are consistent from scenario to scenario.This paper describes such a framework and presents it in a way that allows organizations to review their own criteria for quantifying human involvement in LOPA. It also examines some of the published LOPA criteria for human involvement and looks at them in terms of consistency of approach between evaluation of cause, receptor, and IPL. Finally the paper makes suggestions to use in calibrating LOPA methodologies to achieve consistent and believable results in terms of human interaction within and between scenarios that have worked for other organizations.     

煤矿人为失误的原因及控制

随着科学技术的进步,机器设备的可靠性得到了大幅度的提高,人为失误导致的事故比例快速上升.掌握人为失误的原因,进而控制人为失误的发生是有效减少事故发生的重要措施.在对神火煤电股份有限公司新庄矿深入调查了解的基础上,初步探讨了煤矿人为失误的原因,提出了控制人为失误的有效途径.     

基于人因失误分析的医院电气安全管理研究

医院是重点用电单位,用电的安全性和供电可靠性都比较高,但因不可抗力、供电系统故障、医院管理问题、人为失误等方面的原因,仍存在发生各类电气突发事件的风险。其中,由人的误操作或不安全行为因素而诱发的电气方面的突发事件已成为医院非医疗事故的主要原因。文章针对医院电气安全操作方面的人因失误,从个人和组织两个角度进行了失误原因的分析,认为人的失误既受个体因素的影响,也受环境、制度和管理水平的影响。在此基础上,提出完善相关规章制度建设、加强教育与培训等,从组织制度建设、人员技术素质提高等方面,提出预防与减少人因失误的措施与方法,提高供配电质量,为医院医疗工作提供有效的电气安全后勤保障。     

基于HFACS的空中相撞事故分析及建议

空中相撞事故往往是由诸多人为差错相互叠加、耦合和作用而导致的,要找出事故的真正诱因,防止类似事故再次发生,难度非常大。为了有效地分析和定位人为差错,以更好地服务于防相撞的管理与决策,提出一种基于人为因素分析分类系统（HFACS）的空中相撞事故分析方法,它按照从显性差错到隐性差错的思路来分析事故的诱因,最终找出组织因素对事故的影响。并利用HFACS对巴西卡欣布上空发生的一起空中相撞事故进行了系统分析。案例分析结果表明,该方法不仅能够找出导致空中相撞事故的人为差错,解释事故发生的原因和过程,而且能够据此提供防止相撞事故发生的安全建议。     

Analysis of underlying causes of investigated loss of containment incidents in Dutch Seveso plants using the Storybuilder method

In the Netherlands there are around 400 “Seveso” sites that fall under the Dutch Major Hazards Decree (BRZO) 1999. Between 2006 and 2010 the Dutch Labour Inspectorate's Directorate for Major Hazard Control completed investigations of 118 loss of containment incidents involving hazardous substances from this group. On the basis of investigation reports the incidents were entered in a tailor-made tool called Storybuilder developed for the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment for identifying the dominant patterns of technical safety barrier failures, barrier task failures and underlying management causes associated with the resulting loss of control events. The model is a bow-tie structure with six lines of defence, three on either side of the central loss of containment event. In the first line of defence, failures in the safety barriers leading to loss of control events were primarily equipment condition failures, pre start-up and safeguarding failures and process deviations such as pressure and flow failures. These deviations, which should have been recovered while still within the safe envelope of operation, were missed primarily because of inadequate indication signals that the deviations have occurred. Through failures of subsequent lines of defence they are developing into serious incidents. Overall, task failures are principally failures to provide adequate technical safety barriers and failures to operate provided barriers appropriately. Underlying management delivery failures were mainly found in equipment specifications and provisions, procedures and competence. The competence delivery system is especially important for identifying equipment condition, equipment isolation for maintenance, pre-start-up status and process deviations. Human errors associated with operating barriers were identified in fifty per cent of cases, were mostly mistakes and feature primarily in failure to prevent deviations and subsequently recover them. Loss of control associated with loss of containment was primarily due to the containment being bypassed (72% of incidents) and less to material strength failures (28%). Transfer pipework, connections in process plant and relief valves are the most frequent release points and the dominant release material is extremely flammable. It is concluded that the analysis of a large number of incidents in Storybuilder can support the quantification of underlying causes and provide evidence of where the weak points exist in major hazard control in the prevention of major accidents.     

Arabian,Asian, western: a cross-cultural comparison of aircraft accidents from human factor perspectives

Introduction. Rates of aviation accident differ in different regions; and national culture has been implicated as a factor. This invites a discussion about the role of national culture in aviation accidents. This study makes a cross-cultural comparison between Oman, Taiwan and the USA. Method. A cross-cultural comparison was acquired using data from three studies, including this study, by applying the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) framework. The Taiwan study presented 523 mishaps with 1762 occurrences of human error obtained from the Republic of China Air Force. The study from the USA carried out for commercial aviation had 119 accidents with 245 instances of human error. This study carried out in Oman had a total of 40 aircraft accidents with 129 incidences. Results. Variations were found between Oman, Taiwan and the USA at the levels of organisational influence and unsafe supervision. Seven HFACS categories showed significant differences between the three countries (p?<?0.05). Conclusion. Although not given much consideration, national culture can have an impact on aviation safety. This study revealed that national culture plays a role in aircraft accidents related to human factors that cannot be disregarded.