Statistical Methods and Pitfalls in Environmental Data Analysis

This paper reviews four commonly used statistical methods for environmental data analysis and discusses potential pitfalls associated with application of these methods through real case study data. The four statistical methods are percentile and confidence interval, correlation coefficient, regression analysis, and analysis of variance (ANOVA). The potential pitfall for estimation of percentile and confidence interval includes the automatic assumption of a normal distribution to environmental data, which so often show a log-normal distribution. The potential pitfall for correlation coefficient includes the use of a wide range of data points in which the maximum in value may trivialize other smaller data points and consequently skew the correlation coefficient. The potential pitfall for regression analysis includes the propagation of uncertainties of input variables to the regression model prediction, which may be even more uncertain. The potential pitfall for ANOVA includes the acceptance of a hypothesis as a weak argument to imply a strong conclusion. As demonstrated in this paper, we may draw very different conclusions based on statistical analysis if the pitfalls are not identified. Reminder and enlightenment obtained from the pitfalls are given at the end of this article.     

Characterizing the Extent of Spatially Integrated Floodplain and Wetland Systems in the White River,Indiana, USA

Floodplain delineation may inform protection of wetland systems under local, state, or federal laws. Nationally available Federal Emergency Management Agency Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs, “100‐year floodplain” maps) focus on urban areas and higher‐order river systems, limiting utility at large scales. Few other national‐scale floodplain data are available. We acquired FIRMs for a large watershed and compared FIRMs to floodplain and integrated wetland area mapping methods based on (1) geospatial distance, (2) geomorphic setting, and (3) soil characteristics. We used observed flooding events (OFEs) with recurrence intervals of 25‐50 to >100 years to assess floodplain estimate accuracy. FIRMs accurately reflected floodplain areas based on OFEs and covered 32% of river length, whereas soil‐based mapping was not as accurate as FIRMs but characterized floodplain areas over approximately 65% of stream length. Geomorphic approaches included more areas than indicated by OFE, whereas geospatial approaches tended to cover less area. Overall, soil‐based methods have the highest utility in determining floodplains and their integrated wetland areas at large scales due to the use of nationally available data and flexibility for regional application. These findings will improve floodplain and integrated wetland system extent assessment for better management at local, state, and national scales.     

2003年我国事故与灾害状况综述

对我国2003年的安全生产事故及自然灾害情况进行了总结和评述.包括火灾(城乡火灾、森林火灾、草原火灾)、沙尘天气、水旱灾害(干旱、暴雨洪涝、夏季高温)、农业自然灾害(干旱、洪涝、风雹、低温冻害)、海洋灾害(风暴潮、赤潮、海浪、海冰、溢油)、地质灾害(地震、泥石流)等.     

恐怖内心思想的智能阅读车(IRV)开发研究

近年来 ,恐怖袭击事件威胁着城市公共安全 ,给人们的精神和心理造成极大的创伤和痛苦 ,已引起各国政府、各大媒体的广泛关注。笔者分析了城市公共安全的特点 ,研制了恐怖内心思想的智能阅读车 (IRV) ,通过对进入公共场所的人群进行快速 (数秒内 )检测人体生理参数 (3项指标 ) ,阅读人群的心理、生理、行为特征 ,快速地识别出恐怖分子 ,解决了安全预警滞后的问题 ,建立公共安全的常规通道 (或非常规通道 )。研究与开发的目的是从传统的被动防范转变到主动预控 ,为解决国内外防恐和反恐难题提供了一种新方法。     

论中师环境教育的重要意义

本文从中师的根本任务,教育观念的转变,初步分析了环境教育与中师“两个适应,一个服务”的内在联系;探讨中师进行环境教育的重要意义     

国内突发环境污染事件特征分析及防治对策研究

文章统计分析了2002年-2008年中国发生的突发环境污染事件,以揭示事件发生的规律、危害以及总体情况和变化趋势,结果表明：中国已进入环境污染事件高发期,突发污染事件总体呈逐年数量增多、危害增大的趋势,且发生时间集中,类型广泛,进而提出以“防为上,救次之,戒为下”的应对策略,实现从注重应急处置向以预防为主的转变。     

广州市环境保护“十二五”规划指标体系研究

环境保护目标和指标体系是环境保护规划的核心内容,具有重要意义。文章根据广州市环境现状和趋势,结合对广州市“十一五”规划指标及其他指标体系的分析研究,提出了广州市环境保护“十二五”规划指标体系的初步设想,构建了包含10个类别、37个指标的规划指标体系。     

2006年中国安全生产事故与自然灾害状况

综述了2006年中国安全生产事故状况和自然灾害情况.统计和分析了安全生产事故和自然灾害发生的情况,并给出了2006年10大食品安全事件.2006年中国共发生各类安全生产事故627158起,死亡112822人,同比分别减少12.6%和11.2%.非煤矿山共发生伤亡事故1869起、死亡2271人,同比分别下降3.1%和3.0%.火灾发生222702起,死亡1517人,受伤1418人,直接财产损失784468411元.2006年各类自然灾害共造成43453.3万人(次)不同程度受灾,因灾死亡3186人;农作物受灾面积41091.3千hm2,上升5.9%,其中绝收面积5408.9千hm2,上升17.7%.因灾直接经济损失2528.1亿元,比2005年上升23.8%.浙江、福建、江西、湖南、广东、广西、重庆、四川等地受灾严重.全国因气象灾害共造成2704人死亡,经济损失约2120亿元.2006年是中国海洋灾害的重灾年,风暴潮、海浪、海冰、赤潮和海啸等灾害性海洋过程共发生179次,造成直接经济损失218.45亿元,减少34.3%,死亡(含失踪)492人.地质灾害共发生102804起.大陆地区共发生5级以上地震14次,死亡25人,直接经济损失18.6亿元.结果表明,2006年中国安全生产事故的发生较2005年有所缓和,但自然灾害状况较2005年严重.     

2005年中国安全生产事故与自然灾害状况

综述了2005年中国安全生产事故状况和自然灾害情况.统计和分析了安全生产事故和自然灾害发生的情况.2005年中国共发生各类安全生产事故717 938起,死亡127 089人,同比分别减少10.7%和7.1 %.煤矿共发生事故3 303起,死亡5 938人,同比分别下降9.2%和1.5%.2005年全国各类自然灾害共造成40 653.7万人(次)受灾,2 475人死亡,直接经济损失2 042亿元.全年农作物受灾面积3 882万hm2,绝收460万hm2.全年发生特大森林火灾3起,因森林火灾造成受害森林面积7.3万hm2.全年因海洋灾害造成直接经济损失约332亿元.全年发生赤潮82次,减少14次;累计赤潮面积约27 070 km2,上升1.7%.全年共发生造成人员伤亡或直接经济损失50万元以上的地质灾害854起,共造成直接经济损失36.5亿元.全年共发生5级以上地震13次,受灾人口208万人,受灾面积15 040 km2,造成直接经济损失26 亿元.2005年中国安全生产事故的发生较2004年有所缓和,但自然灾害状况较2004年严重.     

Spatial and temporal variation of nitrogen exported by runo from sandy agricultural soils

The eutrophication problem has drawn attention to nutrient leaching from agricultural soils, and an understanding of spatial and temporal variability is needed to develop decision-making tools. Thus, eleven sites were selected to monitor, over a two-year period, spatial and temporal variation of runoff discharge and various forms of N in surface runoff in sandy agricultural soils. Factors influencing the variation of runoff discharge and various forms of N in surface runoff were analyzed. Variation of annual rainfall was small among 11 sites, especially between 2001 and 2002. However, variation of annual discharge was significant among the sites. The results suggest that rainfall patterns and land use had significant effect on discharge. The concentrations of total N, total kjeldahl N （TKN）, organic matter-associated N （OM-N）, NO3- -N, and NHn＋-N in the runoff ranged widely from 0.25 to 54.1, 0.15 to 20.3, 0.00 to 14.6, 0.00 to 45.3, and 0.00 to 19.7 mg/L, respectively. Spatial and temporal variations in the N concentration and runoff discharge were noted among the different sites. Annual loads of N in the runoff varied widely among monitoring sites and depend mainly on runoff discharge. High loads of total N, OM-N, NO3--N, and NHn＋-N in the runoff either in citrus groves or on vegetable farms occurred from June to October for each year, which coincided with the rainy season in the region. This study found that N in surface runoff was related to rainfall intensity, soil N level, and fertilizer use.