Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Vegetation of Wet Meadows in Relation to Their Land-use

Wetland biomonitoring approaches are needed to determine when changes in response to stressors are occurring and to predict the consequences of proposed land-use changes. These approaches require an understanding of shifts in biota that occur in response to land-use, data that are lacking for most kinds of wetlands. Changes in floristic composition corresponding to land-use differences at multiple scales (site to 2500 m radius) were characterized for 40 wet meadows associated with prairie glacial marshes in Minnesota (U.S.A.). In general, guild was more useful than species composition for indicating land-use impacts. Site impacts (stormwater, cultivation) and landscape disturbance (agriculture and urbanization, combined), coincide with a reduction in native graminoid and herbaceous perennial abundance (e.g., Carex lasiocarpa, Calamagrostis canadensis, Spartina pectinata). This vegetation is replaced with annuals (e.g, Bidens cernua, Polygonum pensylvanicum) in recently cultivated sites or introduced perennials (e.g., Phalaris arundinacea, Typha angustifolia) and floating aquatics (lemnids) in stormwater impacted wetlands. Ditches also reduce native perennial importance and increase perennials, but only when they are in highly impacted landscapes.     

Improving flood risk analysis for effectively supporting the implementation of flood risk management plans: The case study of “Serio” Valley

The EU Flood Directive 2007/60 requires the assessment and delineation of flood risk maps. The latter should provide the required knowledge for the development of flood risk management plans (FRMPs), that should deal with all features of risk management: e.g. preparation, protection and prevention, comprising also the phase of the flood forecasting and warning systems, in addition to the emergency management. The risk maps, delineated through the expert-drive qualitative (EDQ) approach currently adopted in several European countries, such as Italy, fail to represent the information base that needed by stakeholders for selecting the suitable objectives and designing the appropriate mitigation actions for flood risk management. In the EDQ approach, the flood hazard and the potential damage degree maps are combined by means of a matrix to obtain a qualitative flood risk map. However, the performance of the risk matrix is not usually rigorous validated and, therefore, presents limits, such as subjective and not careful explained interpretation of rating and poor resolution, (due to range compression), that can produce errors in comparative ranking of risk areas. In this context, this paper proposes the FloodRisk approach that aims to improve the efficacy of flood risk map overcoming the limits of EDQ approach in supplying the knowledge base that allow to analyze costs and benefits of potential mitigation measures. However, the proposed approach is also able to involve the citizens in the flood management process, enhancing their awareness. An application of FloodRisk procedure is showed on a pilot case in “Serio” Valley, (North Italy), and its strengths and limits, in terms of additional efforts required in its application compared with EDQ procedure, have been discussed focusing on the efficacy of the outcomes provided for the fulfillment of FRMPs. The results have demonstrated the ability of FloodRisk, respect to EDQ approach, to distinguish successfully different levels of vulnerability of exposure elements, thanks to the use of asset value and depth-damage curves, that allows a suitably evaluation of the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. In this light, a successfully application of a cost-benefit analysis of FloodRisk approach on a portfolio of alternative mitigation actions, (i.e. structural and non-structural measurements), has been demonstrated on the proposed study case. However, FloodRisk requires additional information, e.g. water depths assessment and assets values, and it needs a proper analysis and communication of the uncertainty in its results. Although they still exist limitations that impede, at present, the FloodRisk application without an adequate understanding and a critical consideration of the hazard, exposure and vulnerability characteristics of the study area, considerations are supplied on how the utilization of this approach can be maximized in the light of the next flood risk maps revision due by December 2019.     

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Environmental Impact Assessment of Industrial Structure Change in a Rural Region of China

As the embodiment of human activities, the change of regional industrial structure is an essential driving factor of global environmental change. Consequently, the research on the change of regional industrial structure and associated effects on the environment is one of the key issues of researches on sustainable development, human–environment relationship, and regional response to global environment change. However, compared to the flourish of researches on environmental impact assessment of industrial departments, few studies have been conducted to assess the environmental impact of regional industrial structure. In this study, based on a synthetic analysis of environmental disturbances of different industrial departments, the environmental impact coefficient of industrial department associated with the index of environmental impact of industrial structure was constructed, so as to make a quantitative assessment of environmental impact of the change of regional industrial structure. And the results of the case study in Lijiang City, a rural region of China, have showed that there are two obvious changes of industrial structure in the study area from 1992 to 2003, associated with a continuous decreasing of the index of environmental impact of industrial structure, which indicated a positive environmental effects of the change of regional industrial structure.     

水上溢油环境风险源确定研究

依据泄漏进水域的最大油品量、水域环境敏感性等两个主要因素,研究确定了江苏油田水上(临水)设施环境风险源等级,并针对不同的风险源阐述了降低风险等级的技术方法和预防措施,为加强江苏油田环境风险防患、提高应急处理能力提供了依据。     

An approach to optimise nutrient management in environmental sanitation systems despite limited data

The material flow analysis method can be used to assess the impact of environmental sanitation systems on resource consumption and environmental pollution. However, given the limited access to reliable data, application of this data-intensive method in developing countries may be difficult. This paper presents an approach allowing to develop material flow models despite limited data availability. Application of an iterative procedure is of key importance: model parameter values should first be assessed on the basis of a literature review and by eliciting expert judgement. If model outputs are not plausible, sensitive input parameters should be reassessed more accurately. Moreover, model parameters can be expressed as probability distributions and variable uncertainty estimated by using Monte Carlo simulation. The impact of environmental sanitation systems on the phosphorus load discharged into surface water in Hanoi, Vietnam, is simulated by applying the proposed approach.     

Integrating economic landscape valuation into Mediterranean territorial planning

Recent and rapid landscape changes have occurred over large areas in Mediterranean Basin. Wildfires and human activities are the most important disturbances at landscape-level due to their ecological and socio-economic impacts. The increasing demand which society places on the forest landscapes has led us to develop a tool to identify the economic landscape value around natural protected areas. Our research focused on the integration of social, ecological and economic components of landscape management based on stated social preferences and contingent valuation method (CVM). Landscape value research has been motivated by the need to assist land use planning and environmental management.Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have provided new opportunities to spatially distributed modeling of landscape quality. Correlations were found between the representativeness of the landscape and its sense of belonging, and the contingent rating. Landscape with intensive agricultural practices and mining areas were the least preferred landscapes. There was a notable variation in the economic landscape value attributed to the study area based on the considered CVM scenario, ranging from 1,253,075.1 Euros to 3,650,827.8 Euros. We added the geospatial allocation of willingness to pay according to five landscape quality categories. Our approach could be used to identify priority areas for conservation based on maximizing landscape value, and would be useful in detecting interesting or conflict areas associated with new management and planning alternatives. In this sense, this approach offers managers to seek territorial management strategies to increase economic efficiency in the allocation of resources.     

Solution-oriented global environmental assessments: Opportunities and challenges

This article provides an introduction to the Special Issue dedicated to “Solution-oriented Global Environmental Assessments: Opportunities and Challenges”. In the follow-up to the Paris climate agreement and the adoption and early implementation of the global Sustainable Development Goals involving many synergies and trade-offs, the need to shift the focus from environmental problem analysis towards the exploration of specific solution options can be observed in international environmental governance debates. To remain policy-relevant, credible and legitimate, global environmental assessments (GEAs) must carefully adapt to a rapidly evolving governance landscape. This Special Issue sheds light on the potential utility and implications of increased solution-orientation of GEAs. It builds on the research project “The Future of Global Environmental Assessment Making” that was jointly initiated in 2013 by UN Environment and the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change. The article collection includes research on the coevolution of GEAs and the increasingly solution-oriented governance context; conditions of success for contemporary GEAs; the treatment of divergent viewpoints, stakes and stakeholders in solution-oriented GEAs; knowledge aggregation; and the enhanced measurement of GEA effectiveness in the emerging governance landscape.     

天池风景资源开发过程中的环境预警评价

在天池风景名胜区专家咨询和环境质量综合分析的基础上，对天池风景名胜区旅游资源的开发活动进行了预警评价，提出了天池风景名胜区风景资源开发的保护对策，为天池景区的环境管理工作提供了依据。     

油气集输站安全监控预警及管理信息系统的开发

提出油气集输站安全监控预警及管理信息系统建设的调研内容、需求分析以及安全相关控制系统的风险分析流程。设计了该系统建设的4层结构框架和拓扑图,深入研究了实时参数监控、分级报警与安全保护控制、智能诊断与预警、多媒体监控、安全生产管理信息子系统的主要开发内容和功能实现。