Responding to Pressure on Local Natural Resources: the Story of Three Villages in South-Eastern Nigeria

There has been a recent move by development professionals away from formal “scientific” attempts to address problems caused by changing environmental conditions, towards a greater reliance on the innovative ability and indigenous knowledge of local people. This has necessitated a greater understanding of the way in which communities respond to environmental and socio-economic change. Using a model that predicts community responses to pressure on local natural resources, and data collected in three villages in south-eastern Nigeria, an attempt is made to document the way in which people react and adapt to change. It is concluded that with sufficient time communities will usually develop new resource management and agricultural systems. However, where change is occurring rapidly, a facilitator is required to encourage and accelerate local innovation so that farming and natural resource management systems can be appropriately adjusted before severe environmental degradation takes place.     

环境政策对环境技术创新的影响

环境政策对技术创新具有正负两个方面的影响。本文详细分析了不同类型环境政策的技术效应 ,并阐述了环境政策的未来发展方向及其对技术创新的影响     

环境安全预警系统的研建

建立环境安全预警系统的呼声随着环境安全问题的日益突出而逐渐高涨。通过分析论述环境安全预警系统研究的进展及特点，提出环境安全预警系统的逻辑结构、系统总体架构和系统功能结构，以期从方法和技术角度为建立环境安全预警系统提供一个全面新颖的实现方案。     

中国新时代自然资源治理体系的理论构想

基于生态文明、高质量发展和国家治理新时代的战略需求,以及国内外自然资源治理发展趋势,对中国新时代自然资源治理的指导思想、基本理念、理论体系、基本原则和目标体系等进行系统解析,对包括调查勘查评估、统计监测核算、开发利用治理、保护修复治理、保障储备治理、市场交易治理、安全预警治理和国际合作治理等在内的中国新时代自然资源治理框架体系进行系统刻画,对包括公平正义制度、资产产权制度、节约集约制度、有偿使用制度、保护修复制度、市场交易制度、统计核算制度、多元储备制度、国际合作制度和治理监督制度在内的中国特色自然资源治理制度体系进行系统解构。研究结论与观点对于提高中国自然资源治理体系与能力现代化建设水平具有重要参考价值。     

创新我国环境监测体制和机制的构想

阐述了我国环境监测体制和机制创新的基本框架,阐明了符合体制创新要求的机构设置和职责分工,提出了资质管理、行业自律等新机制,最终构建"国家统一监管、地方监督实施、部门分工协作、单位自测申报、社会中介服务"的新型环境监测监管体系。     

也谈GAM与GM（1,1）模型

通过对环境预测中灰色建模方法的回顾，说明了ＧＡＭ和ＧＭ（１，１）模型各有所长，最重要的是建模手段的丰富。     

Development aid: The moral obligation to innovation

The prominent, though not exclusive, role of basic needs strategies to attain ethically acceptable development goals raises the question of the ability of development agencies to find and employ basic needs strategies. The obligation to prevent severe human suffering leads to the obligation to employ basic needs strategies to attain basic needs goals. The history of failure by development agencies in finding and employing basic needs tools leads to a further obligation to cultivate bureaucratic environments which foster profound innovation. This requires not only new tools but also new bureaucratic behaviour. An understandable obstacle to simultaneously technological and bureaucratic innovation lies in the tension between responsible behaviour and behaviour promoting fundamental change. Since this tension is based on the unpredictability of creative change, a series of axioms and corollaries which reduce the unpredictability is given. They include: (1) an obligation to seek innovation; (2) a clear statement of basic needs goals and intent to use some basic needs tools; (3) increase in effective knowledge of the poor and their survival strategies; (4) bureaucratic learning flexibility; (5) participatory development and allied emphasis on sustainable resource technologies. The embodiment of these in the learning process approach is illustrated.     

STEP WISE,MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE CALIBRATION OF A HYDROLOGIC MODEL FOR A SNOWMELT DOMINATED BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The ability to apply a hydrologic model to large numbers of basins for forecasting purposes requires a quick and effective calibration strategy. This paper presents a step wise, multiple objective, automated procedure for hydrologic model calibration. This procedure includes the sequential calibration of a model's simulation of solar radiation (SR), potential evapotranspiration (PET), water balance, and daily runoff. The procedure uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution global search algorithm to calibrate the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System in the Yampa River basin of Colorado. This process assures that intermediate states of the model (SR and PET on a monthly mean basis), as well as the water balance and components of the daily hydrograph are simulated consistently with measured values.     

城市公共安全系统可靠性研究

城市公共安全体系由诸多子系统组成 ,其功能的实现依赖于城市公共安全系统的整体可靠性。笔者采用组合功能分析和过程分解的方法 ,对城市公共安全系统的功能、结构和组成进行了讨论 ;应用结构化功能-事件树的混合方法对城市公共安全系统的可靠性特征进行了定性分析 ;建立了城市公共安全系统可靠性模型 ,相应的数学模型可作为城市公共安全保障工作中预防为主的科学依据。据此可以得出 :城市公共安全系统中事故和灾害预防子系统的地位应优于事故预警、应急反应和灾害控制等后处理环节的结论 ,同时可以给出了城市规划中公共安全系统设计的建议。