生态安全弹性与生态安全"倒U"曲线

文章从生态安全的研究现状入手,根据生态系统和人类社会系统之间的主要关系,论述了生态安全弹性和安全"倒U"曲线理论.生态安全弹性能够反映安全系数、安全阈值、干扰程度三者的关系,由它来判断人类向生态系统索取自然资源的活动更具有预测性、可操作性,并能保证生态系统自身也处于可持续发展的良性状态.     

United states survey on chromosome mosaicism and pseudomosaicism in prenatal diagnosis

The survey of the incidence of chromosome mosaicism and pseudomosaicism detected in prenatal diagnosis included data from approximately 60 000 genetic amniocenteses in the United States. There were 59 participating cytogenetic laboratories nationwide. The overall incidence of chromosome mosaicism was 0.25 per cent (range of 0–0.89 per cent). The average frequency of pseudomosaicism involving multiple cells or clones was 0.7 per cent (range of 0–11.21 per cent). The frequency of single cell or clone pseudomosaicism was 2.47 per cent (range of 0–11.49 per cent). In cases of pseudomosaicism with trisomy, the most frequently involved chromosome was number 2; occurrence rates of trisomies 7,X,9,17 and 20 were also relatively high. In cases of pseudomosaicism with structural abnormalities, this survey showed an association between relative chromosome size and the frequency of involvement in structural rearrangement. Data on a total of 185 cases of chromosome mosaicism collected in this survey as well as from other documented sources showed 89 cases involved an autosome, 13 cases a sex chromosome, and 23 a marker chromosome. The frequency of noticeable phenotypic abnormalities was highest (37.8 per cent) in the autosomal mosaics and lowest (10.5 per cent) in the sex chromosome mosaics. The average rate for cytogenetic confirmation was 70 per cent.     

A Nationwide Analysis of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Reservoir Performance in Meeting Operational Targets

The United States (U.S.) Army Corps of Engineers operates reservoirs across the U.S. with 89% of reservoirs constructed prior to 1980. Many reservoirs have experienced changes in environmental conditions (e.g., climate and sediment yield) and societal conditions (e.g., water/energy demand and ecological flows) since construction. These changes may challenge the potential for reservoirs to meet their operational targets (OTs) (management goals). Historic daily reservoir data and OTs were collected for 233 reservoirs. Analyses were developed to identify when and where reservoirs may be systematically departing from OTs in terms of the frequency and magnitude of departure. Fifty‐six percent of reservoirs consistently met operating targets, 30% were borderline, and 13% experienced frequent and large magnitude departures. Fifty‐two percent of reservoirs with large departures were due to shortages and were located in the South Pacific and Southwestern divisions. This work provides a framework to identify reservoir performance in relation to management goals, a necessary step for moving toward adaptive management under changing conditions. All individual reservoir analyses are provided via an interactive data visualization tool: https://nicholasinstitute.duke.edu/reservoir-data .     

Variability and predictability of sea-level extremes in the Hawaiian and U.S.-Trust Islands—a knowledge base for coastal hazards management

The objective of this study is to provide an improved climatology of sea level extremes on seasonal and long-term time scales for Hawaii and the U.S-Trust islands. Observations revealed that the Hawaiian and U.S.-Trust islands, by and large, display a strong annual cycle. For estimating the statistics of return period, the three-parameter generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is fitted using the method of L-moments. In the context of extremes (20- to 100-year return periods), the deviations in most of the Hawaiian Islands (except at Nawiliwili and Hilo) displayed a moderate sea-level rise (i.e., close to 200 mm), but the deviations in the U.S.-Trust islands displayed a considerably higher rise (i.e., more than 300 mm) in some seasons due to typhoon-related storm surges. This rise may cause damage to roads, harbors, and unstable sandy beaches. Correlations between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle and the variability of seasonal sea level have been investigated. Results show that correlation for the station located west of the International Date Line (DL) is strong, but it is moderate or even weaker for stations east of the DL. The skill of SST-based Canonical Correlation Analyses (CCA) forecasts was found to be weak to moderate (0.4–0.6 for Honolulu, Kahului, Hilo, and Wake, and 0.3 or below for Kahului, Mokuoloe, and Johnston). Finally, these findings are synthesized for evaluating the potential implications of sea level variability in these islands.     

工业用水与经济发展的关系——用水库兹涅茨曲线

经验数据显示,发达国家工业用水随经济发展的变化存在着一个由上升转而下降的转折点。因此,工业用水随收入增长的演变模式可以用库兹涅茨曲线形式来表示。工业用水下降点对应的人均GDP的阈值是3700-17 000US$(PPP,以1985年为基数)。与之相应的第二产业在GDP总量中所占份额是30％～50％。工业用水下降的直接原因是用水效率的提高,其来源有两方面:部门用水效率的提高和经济结构调整。这提供了一个积极的信号,即发展中国家的工业用水将不会一直持续增长,从而为更好地预测发展中国家的工业用水量提供非常重要的思路,也为正确把握用水变化规律,制定符合规律的水资源对策提供科学基础。     

THE LEGAL‐INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS MODEL AND WATER POLICYMAKING IN A BI‐NATIONAL SETTING1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports the use of a water negotiation model, the Legal‐Institutional Analysis Model (LIAM), in the bi‐national setting of the U.S. and Mexico in the Paso del Norte region. The following study discusses the results of developing baseline data where interstate, international, and cultural factors, as well as a long history of conflict, impact on negotiations and the extent to which the LIAM is a valuable tool for analyzing behavior among institutional actors in such a setting. The findings suggest that most water policy actors in the region prefer brokered solutions as defined within the LIAM framework.     

U-series disequilibria in a groundwater flow route as an indicator of uranium migration processes

U-series data relating to groundwater, fracture coatings and the adjoining rock matrix in a groundwater flow system at the Palmottu natural analogue site was examined. The aim was to obtain an experimental reference for migration modelling in a transport section defined within the flow system. The U-series reference obtained turned out to be a very useful tool for fine tuning the flow route and for migration mechanism considerations. The U-series data are well in line with other interpretations of the migration system.     

我国东北地区土壤铀同位素水平、分布和来源

系统采集了我国东北地区132个表层土壤样品,采用混合酸全溶分解样品,使用UTEVA萃取色谱分离样品溶液中的铀,应用串联四极杆电感耦合等离子体质谱（ICP-MS/MS）测量样品溶液中²³⁸U、²³⁵U、²³⁴U,获得了研究区域表层土壤中3种铀同位素浓度水平和分布.首次大范围报道该地区表土中²³⁴U水平,发现在部分土壤中²³⁴U发生明显的同位素分馏.²³⁵U/²³⁸U原子比值分布显示区域大气核武器试验的放射性颗粒物在山脉迎风坡有明显沉积,导致大兴安岭等山脉的西侧²³⁵U/²³⁸U原子比值较高.但该区域铀同位素整体上处于环境本底水平,受人类核活动影响较小.来源分析表明研究区域表土中铀主要来源于成土母岩的岩石风化以及人类的工业和农业活动.     

某铀矿区周边土壤238U和226Ra分布特征及污染评价

为查清某铀矿区周边土壤污染源项的污染强度及范围,对需要治理的污染源进行量化,对该铀矿周边土壤0.0~0.2,0.2~0.4,0.4~0.6,0.6~0.8,0.8~1.0m土层土壤中放射性核素²³⁸U和²²⁶Ra活度进行现场调研和统计分析（水平土壤正态分布、箱型图、Q-Q图）,其表明放射性核素污染的空间分布特征及有效性影响,利用²²⁶Ra/²³⁸U反映风化程度.结果表明：在0.0~0.2m土壤深度,²³⁸U和²²⁶Ra浓度最高,分别为813.44~5059.20,737~4536Bq/kg,随深度增加²²⁶Ra和²³⁸U浓度呈减小趋势,0.6~1.0m深度²³⁸U和²²⁶Ra浓度均超美国核管会（NRC）铀矿和水冶设施退役中残存放射性核素的土壤去污标准浓度（370Bq/kg）,因此,针对研究区的土壤治理,厚度选取应不小于1m.污染评价结果表明：研究区属重度-极重度污染、强生态风险危害的土壤面积占比最高,随距铀矿区距离增加,²²⁶Ra和²³⁸U污染程度降低,潜在生态危害减小.     

灭活与非灭活条件下植物乳杆菌去除U(VI)的机理

在不同时间,pH值和生物量浓度条件下,进行了灭活与非灭活植物乳杆菌去除水中铀的对比试验,探讨了二者去除水中铀的机理,通过SEM-EDS、FTIR、XPS及XRD分析了铀与菌体表面的微观作用机理以及菌体表面沉积物的特征.结果表明：植物乳杆菌经灭活后,其吸附铀的能力得到显著的提高,当U（VI）初始浓度为10mg/L、pH值为6.0、37℃条件下,120min内灭活菌体对U（VI）的去除率为94.7%,而活菌体的去除率为88.9%.灭活菌体具有更高的铀吸附容量,在生物量浓度为0.06~0.24mg/L,pH值（3.0~7.0）条件下,灭活菌体与活菌体的U（VI）累积容量比W均大于1.SEM-EDS、FTIR分析结果表明,活细胞和灭活细胞都可通过细胞表面的羟基、酰基及羧基等官能团吸附、配位络合U（VI）.XRD分析表明,活菌体可生物磷酸矿化水中的U（VI）.活菌体的XRD谱图在2θ（18.023,25.492,27.343,40.813°处）有4个明显的磷酸铀酰晶体峰,而灭活菌体的XRD谱图显示为非晶态.XPS结果表明,活菌体可生物还原U（VI）.活菌体能谱图中U4f7/2和U4f5/2轨道出现了结合能为380.20eV和390.65eV的U（VI）分裂峰,而灭活菌体的能谱图中没有出现U（IV）的分裂峰.