Industrial Carbon Emissions Status and Analysis Based on Energy Consumption

With frequent disastrous weathers and increasingly prominent GHG effects in recent years, normal existence and development of mankind are facing unprecedented threats and challenges. GHG emissions mitigation for the global climate changes has been the focus of concern of the world. As the biggest developing country and the second largest country of carbon-emission, China attaches importance to the carbon emission reduction. The major GHG component is carbon dioxide and in China, the emission of carbon dioxide is mainly from industrial production. In the paper, the status and trend of Co2 emission from industrial departments, high-carbon emission and its specific industries are shown in statistics. Meanwhile, the policy environment, industrial organization structure and technology of carbon high emission are all discussed based on practical situations in these departments and industries. At the end, through the analysis of gray correlation, correlativity is explored for both fossil energy consumption and total carbon emission, and also for the production value and carbon emission of each industrial sector. Some policy proposals for the establishment of low-carbon industries and transition of economic development pattern are set forth.     

基于组合模型的能源需求预测

能源是人类生存和发展的重要物质基础,也是当今国际政治、经济、军事、外交关注的焦点。能源需求预测是合理制定能源规划的基础。能源需求预测的模型很多,总的来说,可以分为单一模型预测和组合模型预测。本文在分析几种常用单一模型的优缺点和适用范围的基础上,建立BP神经网络与灰色GM的优化组合模型,对江苏省未来十五年煤炭和石油的需求量进行预测。结果表明:①随着经济的发展,未来江苏省对煤炭和石油的需求量逐渐增加,其中煤炭从2008年的19 601.39万t标准煤增加到2020年的25 615.26万t标准煤,年均增长率为1.81%;石油从2008年的2 628.64万t标准煤增加到2020年的3 532.60万t标准煤,年均增长率为1.36%;②基于BP网络与GM(1,1)的组合模型克服了单一模型的缺点,实现了优化组合模型"过去一段时间内组合预测误差最小"的原则,且预测结果误差较小,不仅适用于能源的中长期预测,还可以推广到其他领域。     

Forest resources consumption pattern in Govind Wildlife Sanctuary,Western Himalaya,India

In the present study, forest biomass (fuelwood, leaf fodder, leaf-litter and non-timber forest products) consumption patterns have been evaluated in the villages of Govind Wildlife Sanctuary, Uttarakhand, Western Himalaya, India. The average fuelwood consumption in the selected villages was estimated at 3.14 kg/capita/day and its energy equivalent was found 52.74 MJ/capita/day. The average leaf fodder and leaf-litter consumption was estimated at 2.70 and 2.40 kg/unit/day, respectively, and the same pattern was estimated for energy equivalent. People's perception on impacts of conservation measures and resources utilization rights were also analysed. Our results emphasized the need for regular assessment of forest resources, particularly in protected areas, where access to natural resources have been denied due to legal restrictions. The study could be a pilot to strengthen the conservation measures across the protected area network by understanding the dynamics of anthropocentric activities and their subsequent impacts on forest resources.     

顺义区地下水水源地脆弱性评价

从顺义区地下水源地的特点和实际情况出发,建立了顺义区地下水源地脆弱性综合评价指标体系,并基于该指标体系采用灰关联度评价方法对顺义区地下水源地进行脆弱性综合评价。将综合评价与固有脆弱性评价对比分析,结果表明,采用地下水水源地综合脆弱性与固有脆弱性相结合的评价方法评价结果更为科学合理,可以更好地评价顺义区地下水源地脆弱性。     

Atmospheric mercury concentrations and speciation measured from 2004 to 2007 in Reno, Nevada, USA

Atmospheric elemental, reactive and particulate mercury (Hg) concentrations were measured north of downtown Reno, Nevada, USA from November 2004 to November 2007. Three-year mean and median concentrations for gaseous elemental Hg (Hg⁰) were 1.6 and 1.5 ng m⁻³ (respectively), similar to global mean Hg⁰ concentrations. The three-year mean reactive gaseous Hg (RGM) concentration (26 pg m⁻³) was higher than values reported for rural sites across the western United States. Well defined seasonal and daily patterns in Hg⁰ and RGM concentrations were observed, with the highest Hg⁰ concentrations measured in winter and early morning, and RGM concentrations being greatest in the summer and mid-afternoon. Elevated Hg⁰ concentrations in winter were associated with periods of cold, stagnant air; while a regularly observed early morning increase in concentration was due to local source and surface emissions. The observed afternoon increase and high summer values of RGM can be explained by in situ oxidation of gaseous Hg⁰ or mixing of RGM derived from the free troposphere to the surface. Because both of these processes are correlated with the same environmental conditions it is difficult to assess their overall contribution to the observed trends.     

港口后勤区域与城市互动发展的综合效应评价——以上海外高桥为例

港口后勤区域是港口功能的重要拓展空间。运用灰色关联分析法,从功能联系的角度将上海外高桥港区与临近的外高桥保税区作为完整的地域系统,通过计算港口后勤区域与城市的均值关联度,对1995年以来的外高桥港口后勤区域与城市互动发展的综合效应进行了定量评价。研究结果表明：1995年以来综合效应总体上比较显著,但呈现一定的波动性,其中1995~1998、2000~2001和2003~2005年外高桥港口后勤区域与城市关联发展的均值关联度均表现出下降态势。港口后勤区域建设规模和营运规模的扩大、服务联系的强化以及由此带来的城市交通和生态环境等方面的影响是导致上述动态特征的主要因素。未来从全市的角度看,随着外高桥保税区和洋山保税港区战略合作的展开,港口后勤区域效应将得到进一步发挥     

Distribution and abundance of western gray whales off northeastern Sakhalin Island, Russia, 2001’003

In 2001–2003, >60,000 km of aerial surveys and 7,700 km of vessel surveys were conducted during June to November when critically endangered Korean–Okhotsk or western gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) were present off the northeast coast of Sakhalin Island, Russia. Results of surveys in all years indicated gray whales occurred in predominantly two areas, (1) adjacent to Piltun Bay, and (2) offshore from Chayvo Bay, hereafter referred to as the Piltun and offshore feeding areas. In the Piltun feeding area, the majority of whales were observed in waters shallower than 20 m and were distributed from several hundred meters to ∼ 5 km from the shoreline. In the offshore feeding area during all years, the distribution of gray whales extended from southwest to northeast in waters 30–65 m in depth. During all years, the distribution and abundance of whales changed in both the Piltun and offshore feeding areas, and both north–south and inshore–offshore movements were documented within and between feeding seasons. The discovery of a significant number of whales feeding in the offshore area each year was a substantial finding of this study and raises questions regarding western gray whale abundance and population levels, feeding behavior and ecology, and individual site-fidelity. Fluctuations in the number of whales observed within the Piltun and offshore feeding areas and few sightings outside of these two areas indicate that gray whales move between the Piltun and offshore feeding areas during their summer–fall feeding season. Seasonal shifts in the distribution and abundance of gray whales between and within both the Piltun and offshore feeding areas are thought, in part, to be a response to seasonal changes in the distribution and abundance of prey. However, the mechanism driving the movements of whales along the northeast coast of Sakhalin Island is likely very complex and influenced by a multitude of factors. *Deceased     

Japanese Whaling and Other Cetacean Fisheries (10 pp)

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: Discussions on management of whales and whaling are factually monopolized by the International Whaling Commission (IWC), resulting in a limitation of information flow to outside communities. With an aim to improve the situation, this article briefly reviews whaling and dolphin/porpoise fisheries in Japan, which is recognized to be the world largest cetacean exploitation. MAIN FEATURES: The Japanese government grants an annual take of 22,647 cetaceans of 15 species for scientific whaling and various kinds of active dolphin/porpoise fisheries by the nationals. Further, over 100 baleen whales and numerous small cetaceans are taken in passive net fisheries. They are used mostly for human consumption and some for aquarium display. RESULTS: Sustainability of the take is not evident and some populations have shown a historical decline. The Japanese program of scientific whaling has been reviewed by IWC and its Scientific Committee (SC), although they have arrived at no consensus. DISCUSSION: The current scientific whaling program invites arguments from the view points of science as well as concerning the ethics of scientists, economy, and interpretation of the International Convention for Regulation of Whaling (ICRW) of 1946. The scientific whaling and other Japanese cetacean fisheries are benefited from nationalistic public attitude, and ambiguity and weakness of the ICRW. CONCLUSIONS: Japanese cetacean harvest will continue supported by domestic demand for whale products as long as the proceeds can sustain the operation, even with criticisms from outside communities. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: For safe management of small cetaceans exploited by Japan, studies are urgent on the population structure, abundance and validity of catch statistics. The results should be open to scientific communities.     

Abundance, behavior, and movement patterns of western gray whales in relation to a 3-D seismic survey, Northeast Sakhalin Island, Russia

A geophysical seismic survey was conducted in the summer of 2001 off the northeastern coast of Sakhalin Island, Russia. The area of seismic exploration was immediately adjacent to the Piltun feeding grounds of the endangered western gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus). This study investigates relative abundance, behavior, and movement patterns of gray whales in relation to occurrence and proximity to the seismic survey by employing scan sampling, focal follow, and theodolite tracking methodologies. These data were analyzed in relation to temporal, environmental, and seismic related variables to evaluate potential disturbance reactions of gray whales to the seismic survey. The relative numbers of whales and pods recorded from five shore-based stations were not significantly different during periods when seismic surveys were occurring compared to periods when no seismic surveys were occurring and to the post-seismic period. Univariate analyses indicated no significant statistical correlation between seismic survey variables and any of the eleven movement and behavior variables. Multiple regression analyses indicated that, after accounting for temporal and environmental variables, 6 of 11 movement and behavior variables (linearity, acceleration, mean direction, blows per surfacing, and surface-dive blow rate) were not significantly associated with seismic survey variables, and 5 of 11 variables (leg speed, reorientation rate, distance-from-shore, blow interval, and dive time) were significantly associated with seismic survey variables. In summary, after accounting for environmental variables, no correlation was found between seismic survey variables and the linearity of whale movements, changes in whale swimming speed between theodolite fixes, mean direction of whale movement, mean number of whale exhalations per minute at the surface, mean time at the surface, and mean number of exhalations per minute during a whales surface-to-dive cycle. In contrast, at higher received sound energy exposure levels, whales traveled faster, changed directions of movement less, were recorded further from shore, and stayed under water longer between respirations.     

中国西部地区水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调度的时空特征

在2005~2018年中国西部地区水-能源-粮食系统综合发展评价的基础上,运用耦合协调度模型和地理加权回归模型对水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调度的时空特征及其影响因素进行实证研究.结果表明:(1)中国西部水-能源-粮食系统及其各子系统的综合发展指数总体呈波动上升趋势,其中,水资源和能源子系统在2011年后长期滞后于粮食子系统,成为西部地区水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调发展的短板.(2)2005~2018年,中国西部水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调度从勉强耦合协调进入初级耦合协调阶段,且耦合协调度呈现“南高北低”的时空特征.(3)居民消费水平和人口规模对甘肃、内蒙古等西北地区的系统耦合协调度具有正向影响,对重庆、云南等西南地区具有负向影响,影响程度在地理空间上均呈现出“北正南负”的空间特征;地方财政环保投入的影响程度从北到南逐渐增大,广西、贵州、四川、陕西的系统耦合协调度受该因素的影响最大;R&D投入强度对系统耦合协调的推动作用相对较小,影响程度呈现“北高南低”的空间特征.基于上述分析结果,提出了多资源系统联合发展视角下的区域资源管理方式,减少对有限资源间的依赖性,改善人口规模及环保科技投入等因素,构建具有西部区域特色、体现资源优势、富有竞争力的水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调发展策略.