奈曼旗沙漠化土地动态变化分析

本文利用两期TM卫片对奈曼旗五个苏木的沙漠化土地动态进行了分析。10年间沙漠伦土地总面积减少了457.82km^2，但同期耕地面积净增加了394.08km^2；同时，流动沙地面积增加了139.62km^2，图斑数降低到了50％，流动沙地明显扩展，斑块间发生合并，集中连片的趋势严峻。不同苏木沙漠化土地变化表明，土地利用方式对其有明显影响。     

太湖流域水污染对太湖水质的影响分析

从太湖地区(苏州、无锡、常州、杭州、嘉兴和湖州)的污染物排放量、水质监测结果，以及工农业发展、人口变化、人民生活水平的提高、东太湖萎缩，底泥中营养物的变化和湖泊生态系统失衡的特点入手，分析了太湖流域水污染现状。结果表明，工业废水排放量高于城镇生活废水排放量；太湖湖体、环湖河流水质与省、市边界断面主要超标项目分别为：总磷、总氮和氨氮；水体水质演变是由工农业迅速发展、人口过度增加、污染防治措施相对滞后，以及太湖水生态系统失衡等原因造成的。     

Climate Change and Energy Technologies

The long time scale of the climate change problem and the inherent nature of the carbon cycle bring important implications for present technology development efforts. Even if major technology improvements are achieved for non-carbon-emitting technologies such as energy-intensity improvements, wind, solar, biomass, and nuclear over the course of the 21^st century, most examinations of potential future greenhouse emissions conclude that additional technology development will be required to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations. The evelopment of an expanded suite of technologies including carbon capture and disposal, hydrogen systems and biotechnology hold the potential to dramatically reduce the cost of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. This paper examines these technologies in the context of a global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, land-use, economics, and carbon cycle processes.     

低纬高原地区城市化对室内外气温的影响

以低纬高原城市昆明市为研究对象,通过比较分析,得出以下结论昆明地区受全球气候变暖影响年平均气温约升高0.5℃/a左右;由于城市面积扩大导致昆明的室内外气温均升高,其中室内气温升高幅度大于室外气温,干季大于雨季;不论是干季还是雨季,城市增温效应与城市建成区面积、城市人口均有较好的相关关系.城市建成区面积增加对平均气温的影响较大;而城市人口增加对平均室内气温的影响较大.城市建成区面积每增加1km2,年平均室内气温将升高0.0054℃;年平均气温升高0.012℃.而城市人口增加1 万人,年平均室内气温升高0.0259℃;年平均气温升高0.0098℃.     

利用轨迹模式模拟近地层臭氧日变化

提出在多条轨迹上应用轨迹模式，以实现对固 区臭氧浓度日变化的模拟，应用该方法对北京燕山石化炼油厂地区的Ｏ３浓度日变化进行了模拟，结果表明模拟值和实测值十分吻和。进一步模拟了当地的臭氧生物特征，并讨论了当地的气象条件和源排放对Ｏ３生成浓度的影响。结果说明削减ＮＯｘ的排放量是控制该地区光化学烟雾形成的关键，而降低燃烃和芳香烃在排放物中所占的比例也是控制该地区光学烟雾的重要手段。     

Scale,context, and decision making in agricultural adaptation to climate variability and change

This work presents a framework for viewing agricultural adaptation, emphasizing the multiple spatial and temporal scales on which individuals and institutions process information on changes in their environment. The framework is offered as a means to gain perspective on the role of climate variability and change in agricultural adaptation, and developed for a case study of Australian agriculture. To study adaptation issues at the scale of individual farms we developed a simple modelling framework. The model highlights the decision making element of adaptation in light of uncertainty, and underscores the importance of decision information related to climate variability. Model results show that the assumption of perfect information for farmers systematically overpredicts adaptive performance. The results also suggest that farmers who make tactical planting decisions on the basis of historical climate information are outperformed by those who use even moderately successful seasonal forecast information. Analysis at continental scales highlights the prominent role of the decline in economic operating conditions on Australian agriculture. Examples from segments of the agricultural industry in Australia are given to illustrate the importance of appropriate scale attribution in adapting to environmental changes. In particular, adaptations oriented toward short time scale changes in the farming environment (droughts, market fluctuations) can be limited in their efficacy by constraints imposed by broad changes in the soil/water base and economic environment occuring over longer time scales. The case study also makes the point that adaptation must be defined in reference to some goal, which is ultimately a social and political exercise. Overall, this study highlights the importance of allowing more complexity (limited information, risk aversion, cross-scale interactions, mis-attribution of cause and effect, background context, identification of goals) in representing adaptation processes in climate change studies.     

Influence of new town development on the urban heat island - The case of the Bundang area

Five new towns have been developed around the Seoul metropolitan area since 1996. However, these new towns generate lots of traffic and related problems in the areas including those new towns and Seoul as a result of increases in population and a lack of ecological-self-sufficiency. Currently, construction of another new town is under deliberation, and what should be a major consider is the notion that the new town be located within a wide, green zone. Many studies have revealed that green space can play an important role in improving urban eco-meteorological capability and air quality. In order to analyze the urban heat island which will be created by the new urban development, and to investigate the local thermal environment and its negative effects caused by a change of land use type and urbanization, Landsat TM images were used for extraction of urban surface temperature according to changes of land use over the last 15 years. These data are analyzed together with digital land use and topographic information. As a study result, it was found the urban heat island of the study area from 198.5 to 1999 rapidly developed which showed a difference of mean temperature above 2.0. Before the Bundang new town construction the temperature of the residential area was the same as a forest, but during the new town construction in 1991 analysis revealed the creation of an urban heat island. The temperature of a forest whose size is over 50% of the investigation area was lowest, and thus the presence of a forest is believed to have a direct cooling effect on the urban environment and its surroundings. The mean temperature of the residential and commercial areas in the study was found to be 4.5 higher than the forest, and therefore this part of land use is believed to be the main factor causing the temperature increase of the urban heat island.     

Interregional burden-sharing of greenhouse gas mitigation in the United States

Emissions trading is anattractive candidate for implementinggreenhouse gas mitigation, because it canpromote both efficiency and equity. Thispaper analyzes the interregional impacts ofalternative allocations of carbon dioxideemission permits within the U.S. Theanalysis is performed with the aid of anonlinear programming model for ten EPARegions and for six alternative permitdistribution formulas. The reason thatvarious alternatives need to be consideredis that there is no universal consensus onthe best definition of equity. Advanceknowledge of absolute and relative regionaleconomic impacts provides policy-makerswith a stronger basis for making thechoice. The analysis yields several usefulresults. First, the simulations indicatethat no matter how permits are allocated,this policy instrument can substantiallyreduce the cost of GHG mitigation for theU.S. in comparison to a system of fixedquotas for each of its regions. Interestingly, the welfare impacts ofseveral of the allocation formulas differonly slightly despite the large differencesin their philosophical underpinnings. Also, the results for some equity criteriadiffer greatly from their application inthe international domain. For example, theEgalitarian (per capita) criterion resultsin the relatively greatest cost burdenbeing incurred by one of the regions of theU.S. with the lowest per capita income.     

近50年丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化

冰川是丝绸之路经济带中国境内重要的水资源,对该区农业建设和经济发展至关重要。基于修订后的中国第一次冰川编目数据和最新发布的第二次冰川编目数据,对丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化进行分析。结果表明：（1）丝绸之路经济带中国境内现有冰川22523条,面积25516.80 km²,冰储量约2592.85 km³,分别占我国冰川相应总量的46.37%、49.22%和57.39%,其中新疆维吾尔自治区冰川储量最为丰富,共计2366.25 km³。（2）丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川以面积<0.5 km²的冰川数量最多,共计15519条,占冰川总数量的68.90%;面积则以介于1~5 km²冰川为主,共计6833.71 km²,占冰川总面积的26.78%;各山系的冰川退缩海拔高度不同,面积减少速度在各个高度带均有差异。（3）近50年间丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川面积共减少4527.43 km²,变化百分比为-20.88%,有3114条冰川消失,冰川冰储量损失约419.35 km³。（4）丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化整体呈现自西向东加快趋势,减少速率整体上有自西南向东北加快趋势;冰川朝北消失数量大于朝南消失数量,东北方向面积减少最多,东南方向面积减少最快。（5）近50年间丝绸之路经济带中国境内有暖湿化趋势,冬季气温升高速率大于夏季且降水增加幅度小于夏季的气候组合模式,不利于冰川的积累从而导致冰川退缩;冰川发育规模对冰川退缩也有一定影响,但各山系冰川变化驱动力具有空间差异。