Examining the relationship between driver distraction and driving errors: A discussion of theory, studies and methods

Over the past two decades the concept of driver distraction has been the focus of intense research attention. One aspect of distraction for which there has been limited systematic research, however, is its role in driver error causation. This article presents a review of the distraction literature with a view to elucidating what is currently known about the types of driving errors that distraction contributes to and the mechanisms by which distraction induces these errors. The review revealed a number of fundamental gaps in our knowledge, including the number and nature of errors made by drivers when distracted; the mechanisms by which distraction causes errors; whether and how distraction disrupts drivers’ ability to recover from errors; and how system-wide factors moderate the relationship between distraction and error. In closing, we attempt to identify the most appropriate theoretical and methodological approach to drive the integrated study of distraction and error forward. We conclude that it is only through the adoption of a systems approach that integrated countermeasures can be proposed and implemented to mitigate driver errors caused by distraction.     

基于CREAM和贝叶斯网络的航空维修人为差错概率预测

航空维修差错不仅严重威胁着飞行安全,同时也会增加航空公司的维修成本。针对航空维修人员发生差错成因的复杂性以及历史事故数据缺乏的情况下,将人因可靠性与失误分析方法（CREAM）和贝叶斯网络（BN）相结合,提出一种改进的维修差错分析模型。根据维修任务构建相应的贝叶斯网络模型,为各子节点设置条件概率表（CPT）;基于维修基地的实际维修环境,对行为形成因子（PSFs）进行评估,得到共同绩效条件（CPCs）的水平;利用各CPC因子下各个行为功能失效模式的权重因子,对各认知活动进行失效概率的修正;将修正概率作为贝叶斯网络根节点的输入,利用推理机制,得到差错发生概率。通过案例分析和计算,验证了所述方法的可行性和有效性。     

一种压力容器封头非接触式扫描测量方法及误差分析

封头参数检测是确保封头质量,消除压力容器安全隐患的重要措施。传统接触式 的封头检测方法存在着诸多问题,为此,提出一种利用激光非接触式扫描进行封头参数 检测的方法。该方法利用支撑杆将激光扫描检测装置定位于封头端面,通过距离检测与 电机的旋转扫描,完成封头形状参数的检测。介绍该方法原理、操作过程,分析该方法 的误差。最后,对该方法进行实际测试验证。结果表明,该方法可以进行封头形状参数 的准确测量,误差同理论分析相符。     

ASSESSMENT OF SAMPLING ERROR ASSOCIATED WITH SOIL MOISTURE ESTIMATION DESIGNS1

A spectral formalism was developed and applied to quantify the sampling errors due to spatial and/or temporal gaps in soil moisture measurements. A design filter was developed to compute the sampling errors for discrete measurements in space and time. This filter has as its advantage a general form applicable to various types of sampling design. The lack of temporal measurements of the two‐dimensional soil moisture field made it difficult to compute the spectra directly from observed records. Therefore, the wave number frequency spectra of soil moisture data derived from stochastic models of rainfall and soil moisture were used. Parameters for both models were estimated using data from the Southern Great Plains Hydrology Experiment (SGP97) and the Oklahoma Mesonet. The estimated sampling error of the spatial average soil moisture measurement by airborne L‐band microwave remote sensing during the SGP97 hydrology experiment is estimated to be 2.4 percent. Under the same climate conditions and soil properties as the SGP97 experiment, equally spaced ground probe networks at intervals of 25 and 50 km are expected to have about 16 percent and 27 percent sampling error, respectively. Satellite designs with temporal gaps of two and three days are expected to have about 6 percent and 9 percent sampling errors, respectively.     

CREAM方法中控制模式分类的模糊方法

认知可靠性与差错分析方法(CREAM)通过对任务环境进行分析从而直接确定人为差错发生概率。该方法提出控制模式的概念,认定不同的任务环境下可能对应不同的控制模式,而人为差错概率直接由控制模式确定。因此,确定控制模式是其中的关键环节。针对该问题,笔者提出了一种模糊方法。通过对性能影响因子进行打分对任务环境进行量化,利用专家打分的方式确定性能影响因子分值对于控制模式的隶属度;通过拟合分析确定性能影响因子的分值对控制模式的隶属函数,得到控制模式与分值之间的对应关系;将该方法应用到两个示例中,其结果与原有方法的结果基本一致。     

用层次分析法分析核电站中影响人误的组织因素

应用层次分析法的基本原理,构建核电站中影响人误的组织因素AHP(层次分析法)模型,确定影响人误的组织因素的指标体系,将成对比较矩阵的特征向量作为组织因素的权重,确定了相关因子的影响力排序。研究结果显示:培训与交流反馈是影响人误的主要组织因素;强化质量监督与控制以及加强交流协作与技能培训,是减少核电站人误发生的重要举措。     

PARAMETER ESTIMATION FOR TPLN DISTRIBUTION FOR FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: The principle of maximum entropy (POME) was used to derive an alternative method for parameter estimation for the three parameter lognormal (TPLN) distribution. Six sets of annual peak discharge data were used to evaluate this method and compare it with the methods of moments and maximum likelihood estimation.     

EFFICIENCY OF HYDROLOGIC DATA COLLECTION SYSTEMS ROLE OF TYPE I AND II ERRORS1

ABSTRACT The efficiency of hydrologic data collection systems is relevant to solution of environmental problems, scientific understanding of hydrologic processes, model-building and management of water resources. Because these goals may be overlapping and non-commensurate, design of data networks is not simple. Identified are four elements of error or risk in such networks: (a) choice of variables and mathematical model for the same process, (b) accuracy of model parameter estimates, (c) acceptance of wrong hypothesis or rejection of correct hypothesis and (d) economic losses associated with error. Of these four, the classical hypothesis testing problem is specifically evaluated in terms of costs of type I and II errors for simple and composite hypotheses; mathematical models for these economic analyses also include costs of sample data and costs of waiting while new data is obtained. An illustrative computational example focuses on the hypothesis that natural recharge might be augmented by a system of pumping wells along an ephemeral channel. The relationship of the hypothesis testing problem to Bayesian decision theory is discussed; it is felt that the latter theory offers a more comprehensive framework for design and use of hydrologic data networks.     

A Sensitivity and Error Analysis Framework for Lake Eutrophication Modeling1

ABSTRACT: A framework for sensitivity and error analysis in mathematical modeling is described and demonstrated. The Lake Eutrophication Analysis Procedure (LEAP) consists of a series of linked models which predict lake water quality conditions as a function of watershed land use, hydrolgic variables, and morphometric variables. Specification of input variables as distributions (means and standard errors) and use of first-order error analysis techniques permits estimation of output variable means, standard errors, and confidence ranges. Predicted distributions compare favorably with those estimated using Monte-Carlo simulation. The framework is demonstrated by applying it to data from Lake Morey, Vermont. While possible biases exist in the models calibrated for this application, prediction variances, attributed chiefly to model error, are comparable to the observed year-to-year variance in water quality, as measured by spring phosphorus concentration, hypolimnetic oxygen depletion rate, summer chlorophyll-a, and summer transparency in this lake. Use of the framework provides insight into important controlling factors and relationships and identifies the major sources of uncertainty in a given model application.     

天线罩相位误差研究

目的解决在机翼天线罩内不同位置加罩引起的相位误差问题。方法从工程实际应用出发,介绍干涉仪测向原理,计算由裸天线引起的相位误差,并利用电磁仿真软件FEKO中的理想接收天线验证其正确性。提出天线-天线罩系统中天线罩会引起额外相位误差的观点,定性分析影响天线罩相位误差的主要因素,其中包括两端曲率半径差异、罩壁结构和制作工艺。天线-天线罩测向误差由裸天线和天线罩相位误差两部分组成。给出微波暗室测试结果和天线罩相位误差校正方法。结果校正后相位误差满足工程需求。结论提出的相位校正方法简单可行,实验方法具有可操作性和重复性。