A bunch of tiny individuals—Individual-based modeling for microbes

The individual-based (aka agent-based) approach is now well established in ecological modeling. Traditionally, most applications have been to organisms at higher trophic levels, where the importance of population heterogeneity (intra-population variability), complete life cycles and behavior adapted to internal and external conditions has been recognized for some time. However, advances in molecular biology and biochemistry have brought about an increase in the application of individual-based modeling (IBM) to microbes as well. This literature review summarizes 46 IBM papers for bacteria in wastewater treatment plants, phytoplankton in ocean and inland waters, bacteria in biofilms, bacteria in food and other environs, and “digital organisms” and “domesticated computer viruses” in silico. The use of IBM in these applications was motivated by population heterogeneity (45%), emergence (24%), absence of a continuum (5%), and other unknown reasons (26%). In general, the challenges and concepts of IBM modeling for microbes and higher trophic levels are similar. However, there are differences in the microbe population dynamics and their environment that create somewhat different challenges, which have led to somewhat different modeling concepts. Several topics are discussed, including producing, maintaining and changing population heterogeneity (different life histories, internal variability, positive feedback, inter-generation memory), dealing with very large numbers of individuals (different up-scaling methods, including representative space vs. super-individual, number vs. biomass based, discrete vs. continuous kinetics, various agent accounting methods), handling space, simulating interactions with the extracellular environment (hybrid Eulerian–Lagrangian approach), modeling agent–agent interaction (self-shading, predation, shoving) and passive transport (random walk with spatially variable diffusivity, well-mixed reactors). Overall, the literature indicates that the application of IBM to microbes is developing into a mature field. However, several challenges remain, including simulating various types of agent–agent interactions (formation and function of colonies or filaments, sexual reproduction) and even smaller individuals (viruses, genes). Further increases in intracellular detail and complexity in microbe IBMs may be considered the combination of systems biology and systems ecology, or the new field of systems bioecology.     

喀斯特山区砷渣堆场污染迁移风险与区划

喀斯特山区土壤空间异质性强,污染物在洼地土壤之间可能通过独特的地表与地下二元水文地质结构的贯通互联而发生转移.通过对喀斯特山区砷渣堆场的废渣及受其影响的土壤中砷含量、分布和迁移等进行系统分析表明,降雨淋滤砷渣产生的废液随地表和地下径流远距离迁移影响洼地土壤;pH从渣场经麻厂到屯脚洼地沿迁移路径升高,均值分别为3.3、6...     

Factors affecting the distribution of microplastics in soils of China

● Microplastic (MP) abundance in soil of China was highly heterogeneous. ● MP abundance was higher near large rivers and central land affected by monsoons. ● MP abundance was correlated with longitude, mulching film, and average temperature. ● Factors suitable for predicting MP pollution using models were discussed. Microplastics (MPs) are found worldwide in high abundance, posing a potential threat to ecosystems. Despite the ubiquity of MPs in the environment, very little is known about the regional distribution of MPs and underlying factors affecting this distribution in the field, which likely include human activity, but also features of the environment itself. Here, out of a total of 1157 datapoints investigated in 53 Chinese studies, 9.68% datapoints were removed as outliers in the heterogeneity analysis. This review revealed that the abundance of MPs was highly heterogeneous. In addition, microplastic (MP) distribution maps based on China demonstrated that the highest abundance of MPs tended to occur near large rivers and central land affected by the intersection of two monsoons. The model-fitting and previous studies showed that MP abundance in China was correlated with longitude, agricultural mulching film usage per capita, temperature, and precipitation. However, due to the heterogeneity of MPs and the low matching degree between the current environmental data and the sampling points, this pattern was not as evident as reported in any single study. Factors affecting the distribution of MPs can not be captured by linear relationships alone, and systematic selection of suitable environmental factors and further model optimization are needed to explore the cause of MP pollution in soil. Overall, this review revealed an uneven distribution of MPs and serves as a reference for model prediction to assess and control plastic pollution in natural soil environments.     

长江经济带生态系统服务权衡与协同及其驱动因素

生态系统服务及其变化是多种因素驱动的复杂过程,了解生态系统服务之间的权衡与协同作用及其驱动因素,对于实现生态系统服务有效管理和人类福祉至关重要.以长江经济带为研究区域,分析了2000~2020年产水、土壤保持、碳固定和粮食供给这4项生态系统服务的时空变化特征,运用相关性分析和地理加权回归识别和量化了生态系统服务间的权衡与协同关系,在此基础上应用偏最小二乘结构方程模型探究自然与人类活动对生态系统服务的影响,再通过地理探测器分析生态系统服务关系变化的驱动机制.结果表明:①近20年来,碳固定服务年均值由946.14 t·km^-2增至1 202.73 t·km^-2,粮食供给均值则由32.73万元·km^-2增至127.22万元·km^-2;产水和土壤保持服务增加幅度较小.②整体上,碳固定与土壤保持、粮食供给与产水为协同关系,其他生态系统服务之间为权衡关系;生态系统服务间的关系在不同地区存在一定的差异.③地形和气候是生态系统服务及多对生态系统服务权衡与协同关系的重要驱动因素,其中结构方程模型结果表明,气候对产水为正向影响（S = 0.73）,地形对粮食供给为负向影响（S = -0.57）;地理探测器结果揭示,影响碳固定与产水在空间上关系的主要驱动因子为海拔（q = 0.38）和降水（q = 0.19）.研究结果可为长江经济带生态系统服务可持续管理和实现该区域生态环境保护与社会经济的协同发展提供科学参考.     

Using design effects from previous cluster surveys to guide sample size calculation in emergency settings

A good estimate of the design effect is critical for calculating the most efficient sample size for cluster surveys. We reviewed the design effects for seven nutrition and health outcomes from nine population-based cluster surveys conducted in emergency settings. Most of the design effects for outcomes in children, and one-half of the design effects for crude mortality, were below two. A reassessment of mortality data from Kosovo and Badghis, Afghanistan revealed that, given the same number of clusters, changing sample size had a relatively small impact on the precision of the estimate of mortality. We concluded that, in most surveys, assuming a design effect of 1.5 for acute malnutrition in children and two or less for crude mortality would produce a more efficient sample size. In addition, enhancing the sample size in cluster surveys without increasing the number of clusters may not result in substantial improvements in precision.     

Impact of product heterogeneity and soft budget constraint on excess capacity in Chinese energy industry based on the duopoly model

Chinese energy industries are facing serious problems such as excess capacity, homogeneous product, and soft budget constraint. This paper provides a duopoly model to investigate the influence of heterogeneity and soft budget constraint on production capacity decision and internal action mechanism, respectively, under Cournot and Bertrand competitions, which reveals the formation mechanism of excess capacity. We conclude that excess capacity would exist when the products are not wholly heterogeneous under Cournot competition, and the higher level of the soft budget constraint or the more homogeneous the products are, the worse the excess capacity will be. The insufficient capacity would exist provided that products are not wholly heterogeneous under Bertrand competition, and the higher level of soft budget constraint or the more homogeneous the products are, the more insufficient capacity will be. Both soft budget constraint and product heterogeneity mutually affect to decision-making of capacity and output.     

The role of respondents’ comfort for variance in stated choice surveys: evidence from a SCUBA diving case

Preference elicitation among outdoor recreational users is subject to measurement errors that depend, in part, on survey planning. This study uses data from a choice experiment survey on recreational SCUBA diving to investigate whether self-reported information on respondents’ comfort when they complete surveys correlates with the error variance in stated choice models of their responses. Comfort-related variables are included in the scale functions of the scaled multinomial logit models. The hypothesis was that higher comfort reduces error variance in answers, as revealed by a higher scale parameter and vice versa. Information on, e.g., sleep and time since eating (higher comfort) correlated with scale heterogeneity, and produced lower error variance when controlled for in the model. That respondents’ comfort may influence choice behavior suggests that knowledge of the respondents’ activity patterns could be used to plan the timing of interviews to decrease error variance in choices and, hence, generate better information.     

Impacts of Human Behavioral Heterogeneity on the Benefits of Probabilistic Flood Warnings: An Agent‐Based Modeling Framework

Flood forecasts and warnings are intended to reduce flood‐related property damages and loss of human life. Considerable research has improved flood forecasting accuracy (e.g., more accurate prediction of the occurrence of flood events) and lead time. However, the delivery of improved forecast information alone is not necessarily sufficient to reduce flood damage and loss of life, as people have varying responses and reactions to flood warnings. This study develops an agent‐based modeling framework that evaluates the impacts of heterogeneity in human behaviors (i.e., variation in behaviors in response to flood warnings), as well as residential density, on the benefits of flood warnings. The framework is coupled with a traffic model to simulate evacuation processes within a road network under various flood warning scenarios. The results show the marginal benefit associated with providing better flood warnings is significantly constrained if people behave in a more risk‐tolerant manner, especially in high‐density residential areas. The results also show significant impacts of human behavioral heterogeneity on the benefits of flood warnings, and thus stress the importance of considering human behavioral heterogeneity in simulating flood warning‐response systems. Further study is suggested to more accurately model human responses and behavioral heterogeneity, as well as to include more attributes of residential areas to estimate and improve the benefits of flood warnings.     

中国城市扩张及空间特征变化对PM2.5污染的影响

为推动绿色生态城区构建,基于2000～2015年城市分类数据,研究中国城市扩张以及城市空间特征变化对大气环境的影响.得出中国城市扩张(人口、经济和地域面积扩张)以及城市空间特征[人口密度、城市空间紧凑度(compact index,CI)、不透水覆盖率(impervious surface coverage,ISC)、植被覆盖率(NDVI)和夜间灯光指数]变化与PM_(2.5)污染显著相关,相关强度顺序为夜间灯光指数 CI人口密度 ISC城市地域扩张≥城市人口扩张 NDVI;夜间灯光指数与PM_(2.5)变化关系最明显,相关系数R为0. 77,具有强相关性,表征经济发展对PM_(2.5)的影响最大;城市CI和人口密度与PM_(2.5)变化的相关系数分别为0. 66和0. 55,中强相关. 2010～2015年期间,城市扩张、城市空间特征变化、城市空间特征异质性变化对PM_(2.5)浓度变化总贡献率为80. 30%.城市空间特征变化的贡献率最高为55. 00%,城市空间异质性的贡献率为25. 60%,均大于2010年基础城市特征的贡献率5. 70%. 2000～2010年期间,城市空间特征变化对PM_(2.5)浓度变化贡献率为39. 30%,城市空间特征异质性的贡献率分别为14. 90%,均大于2000年基础城市特征的贡献率3. 70%.结论表明未来城市转型发展中,构建绿色生态城区应充分考虑城市空间布局、城市空间特征变化,把城市建设对生态环境的破坏降到最小,实现低碳循环绿色发展.