可拓法评估煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性

为了量化煤矿瓦斯爆炸的可能性,并为防治瓦斯爆炸提供量化指标,借鉴可拓学原理,对煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性进行预评估。首先,详细阐述可拓学评估原理;接着,为了验证煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性可拓评估的可行性,结合某一煤矿实例,比选煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性的评价指标,并确定煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性的分类标准,构建煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性评估的经典域、节域和物元;然后,为了避免确定指标权重的人为主观因素的影响,提出用简单关联函数确定指标权重;最后,计算煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性的关联函数值和关联度,确定瓦斯爆炸易发性的等级及其变量特征值。经计算,煤矿爆炸易发性的可拓评估结果为"很小"等级。同时,为了验证可拓评估结果的合理性,将其与模糊评估进行比较,两者所得评估结果相一致。从而表明:将可拓学应用于煤矿瓦斯爆炸易发性评估是合理可行的。     

区域洪涝灾害风险的模糊综合评价与预测

以广西1992~2006年洪涝灾情数据为基础,选取适当的评价指标,用基于遗传算法、特征值法和优化算法的投影寻踪法和层次分析法确定各评价指标的分类权重和排序权重,用优化算法进行综合得到组合权重,经过加权求和得出洪涝灾害的模糊综合评价,进而对15个评价对象进行了分类排序,其分类结果很好地反映了洪涝灾情的实际情况。在以上模糊综合评价结果的基础上,利用距离贴近度进一步计算和分析各个评价指标之间的贴近度,并由择近原则确定各个评价指标之间在洪涝灾害评价中的相关程度。同时,建立了基于改进的灰色GM(1,1)的时间响应式的灾变年份预测模型。     

船舶安全熵概念的提出及应用

船舶航行安全很大程度上取决于操作者对船舶航行过程中各种信息的把握,信息掌握的多少可作为衡量船舶安全的一个标准。把船舶航行链分为5种信息处理过程,利用信息熵的原理,提出船舶安全熵的概念,并建立了数学模型。根据船舶航行信息过程的具体因素,建立船舶航行安全评价指标体系;利用熵权法确定5种信息单元及其安全因素权重,对船舶航行的安全熵进行计算,可根据评价模型对船舶安全进行有效评价。利用渤海湾船舶M进行验证,其结果发现船员素质安全熵最大。船舶安全熵方法是对船舶安全评估的一种新探索。     

民航安全风险定量评价模型研究

在对民航风险评价的现状和常用的定量风险评价方法进行分析的基础上,建立民航安全风险定量评价模型。在计算风险的可能性时,不仅考虑了风险的历史发生概率,而且利用风险发生概率影响因素所发生的变化对风险的历史发生概率进行修正,从而得出在当前情况下风险的发生概率,并且首次提出指数型权重的概念;在计算风险的后果时,考虑风险的直接损失和间接损失,并通过计算多种可能后果的期望的形式,综合考虑多种可能的后果情况;通过上述的可能性和严重性从而达到对安全风险进行定量评价的目的。最后,给出了一个算例,其结果表明该模型具有很强的实用性。     

基于熵权理论的室内环境评价

以室内环境的空气品质以及声、光、热环境为研究对象,根据实测数据,建立不满意百分比指标PD(predicteddissatisfied),基于熵权理论对整个室内环境进行评价。在多因素的室内环境评价过程中,该方法在以实测数据确定评价指标的相对重要程度后,根据各评价对象之间某些评价指标重要度的差异,自动调节各种差异对评价过程的影响,合理的优化了评价过程。以某小区6户人家家庭环境的物理、化学因素测试的数据进行综合评价,其结果与实际情况相吻合。说明该方法所得到的评价结果具有说服力。     

Technetium: A toxic waste product of the nuclear fuel cycle: Effects on soybean growth and development

Technetium-99 (⁹⁹Tc) is formed in significant amounts (6.2% fission yield) during fission in both nuclear reactors and nuclear bombs. The effects of technetium on soybeans (Glycine max) were studied in relation to (a) cytochemical events in the apical meristems of germinating seedlings; (b) growth responses to 0, 0.04, 0.2, 1.0, 5.0, and 20.0 ppm Tc; (c) growth responses to varying levels of Tc after a prior 5-day germination on Tc-free media, and (d) response to Tc in the presence of added manganese.By 20 days, reductions in growth were evident at all levels of Tc except 0.04 ppm (Experiment 2). Root growth was most severely affected, and seedling abnormality at 20 ppm was fivefold greater than that of the controls. The effect of 20 ppm Tc was evident at 10 days when the accumulated absorption dose was approximately 25 rads. The first evidence of damage at this dose was a delay in the initiation of the first trifoliate leaf. The shoot meristem size was 1.2-fold smaller than that of the control; however, there was no cytological evidence of radiation-induced damage. Observation of mitotic figures did not reveal any chromosome aberrations, micronuclei, or chromosome bridges. The lowest level of Tc showing toxicity was 0.2 ppm which resulted in a 31% reduction in growth at 20 days. The accumulated dose was 0.5 rad (0.025 rad/day) and thus it seems unlikely that the rapid inhibition of growth and development is due to radiological toxicity. It is quite probable that the growth effects are due to chemical toxicity possibly due to nutrient competition and/or substitution in uptake or metabolism. However, extremely low doses of radiation have been shown to delay the onset of DNA synthesis (possibly by membrane effects) inTradescantia and until the actual mechanism of Tc inhibition is determined a radiation effect cannot be totally ruled out.This research was partially supported by ERDA Contract EY-76-S-02-4139     

Molecular prenatal diagnosis: the impact of modern technologies

Originally prenatal diagnosis was confined to the diagnosis of metabolic disorders and depended on assaying enzyme levels in amniotic fluid. With the development of recombinant DNA technology, molecular diagnosis became possible for some genetic conditions late in the 1970s. Here we briefly review the history of molecular prenatal diagnostic testing, using Duchenne muscular dystrophy as an example, and describe how over the last 30 years we have moved from offering testing to a few affected individuals using techniques, such as Southern blotting to identify deletions, to more rapid and accurate PCR-based testing which identifies the precise change in dystrophin for a greater number of families. We discuss the potential for safer, earlier prenatal genetic diagnosis using cell free fetal DNA in maternal blood before concluding by speculating on how more recent techniques, such as next generation sequencing, might further impact on the potential for molecular prenatal testing. Progress is not without its challenges, and as cytogenetics and molecular genetics begin to unite into one, we foresee the main challenge will not be in identifying the genetic change, but rather in interpreting its significance, particularly in the prenatal setting where we frequently have no phenotype on which to base interpretation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.