基于验证性因素分析的台风风暴潮灾害经济损失影响因子优化分析

建立客观有效的指标体系是精准估算台风风暴潮灾害经济损失的途径之一。本文以广东省为案例研究区,用验证性因素分析方法对影响灾害经济损失的危险性、脆弱性、抗灾能力3类风险要素进行指标甄别遴选,并将研究区按照经济发展条件分为3个时段,分别分析不同时段内各个风险要素指标的变化。研究表明,对于不同时段,各风险要素的影响指标变化不大,但与风险要素的关联程度会有差异。与传统的指标体系构建相比,本文结合历史案例构建备选指标更具有事实依据,并且利用验证性因素分析方法进行指标遴选,排除了人为主观因素的干扰,增强了指标与研究对象的关联度,减少了指标冗余,使得结果更具有合理性、科学性,为指标体系的研究提供了一个新的思路。     

沙尘暴PM2.5水溶和有机成分对巨噬细胞的损伤

用超纯水或二氯甲烷从甘肃省武威市和内蒙古包头市采集的沙尘暴细颗粒物(PM2.5)中提取水溶成分和有机成分,于体外处理大鼠肺泡巨噬细胞4h,测定细胞谷胱甘肽(GSH)和丙二醛(MDA)含量、质膜ATP酶活性、膜表层和膜脂疏水区流动性、胞质内游离钙离子(Ca2+)浓度以及细胞培养液中乳酸脱氢酶(LDH)和酸性磷酸酶(ACP)活性.结果表明,沙尘暴PM2.5水溶成分可抑制质膜Ca2+-Mg2+-ATP酶、Na+-K+-ATP酶活性,降低质膜表层和膜脂疏水区流动性,增加胞质LDH外渗,并使细胞脂质过氧化作用增强、抗氧化能力减弱,但对ACP和Ca2+浓度影响不大;有机成分除引起胞质LDH渗漏、质膜Na+-K+-ATP酶活性下降外,对其它测定指标的影响无统计学意义.说明沙尘暴PM2.5水溶和有机成分均可对肺泡巨噬细胞产生毒性,其中水溶成分的毒性作用大于有机成分.     

内蒙古是北京地区沙尘天气的主要沙尘源

本文就内蒙古西部地区生态环境恶化现状、生态环境恶化的原因、沙尘暴发生情况及对北京等地区的影响进行了分析探讨，并就如何改善内蒙古西部地区生态环境提出建议。     

北京西城区雨水管道沉积物中重金属污染风险评价

采用地累积指数法、次生相与原生相分布比值法以及Hakanson潜在生态风险指数法从不同角度对雨水管道沉积物中重金属的污染风险进行了评价。地累积指数法的评价结果表明,不同重金属的污染级别为ZnCuCdCrPbNi。而次生相与原生相分布比值法以及Hakanson潜在生态风险指数法的评价结果表明,不同重金属的潜在污染效应关系和潜在生态危害系数大致排序均为CdCuZnPbNiCr。     

1959～2008年湖北省暴雨的气候变化特征

利用湖北省17个气象站1959~2008年逐日降水资料，采用克里格插值法、线性趋势、累计距平、滑动平均及Mann Kendall、复Morlet小波函数等方法分析湖北省暴雨的空间分布规律和时间演变特征。结果表明：湖北省存在以鄂东南和鄂东北为两个暴雨高值高频中心、鄂西北为低值低频中心的多中心分布特征，整体呈现出从东南向西北递减的地域分布，且大暴雨高频区、特大暴雨多发区和暴雨极大值区均出现在鄂东地区。时间演变趋势上，近50年来湖北省暴雨日数呈弱的增长趋势，暴雨量经历了偏少 偏少 偏多 偏多 偏少的年代际变化过程，异常暴雨年中暴雨日数偏多年较偏少年出现的频率高，全省暴雨日数和暴雨量在1978年发生突变，且存在9 a和5 a的周期振荡，而各分区暴雨日数均表现出显著地8~10 a的年代际周期特征     

北方沙尘暴对杭州大气环境的影响及应对措施

简述了我国沙尘天气的形成与分级情况。分析了我国沙尘天气的发展趋势与原因及其对杭州大气环境的影响情况。指出我国沙尘天气的发展有越演越烈的趋势 ,对杭州大气环境的影响时间延长 ,频次增加 ,危害程度加重 ,范围扩大。对防治沙尘天气污染大气环境提出了应对措施。     

Use of Surrogates to Predict the Stressor Response of Imperiled Species

Abstract: Rare or narrowly distributed species may be threatened by stressors to which they have never been exposed or for which data are very limited. In such cases the species response cannot be predicted on the basis of directly measured data, but may be inferred from the response of one or more appropriate surrogate species. Here, I propose a practical way to use the stressor response of one or more surrogate species to develop a working hypothesis or model of the stressor response of the target species. The process has 4 steps: (1) identify one or more candidate surrogate species, (2) model the relationship between the stressor and the response variable of interest for the surrogate species, (3) adapt the stressor–response relationship from the surrogate species to a model for the target species, possibly using Bayesian methods, and (4) incorporate additional data as they become available and adjust the response model of the target species appropriately. I applied the approach to an endangered fish species, the amber darter (Percina antesella), which is potentially threatened by urbanization. I used a Bayesian approach to combine data from a surrogate species (the bronze darter[Percina palmaris]) with available data for the amber darter to produce a model of expected amber darter response. Although this approach requires difficult decisions on the part of the manager, especially in the selection of surrogate species, its value lies in the fact that all assumptions are clearly stated in the form of hypotheses, which may be scrutinized and tested. It therefore provides a rational basis for instituting management policy even in the face of considerable uncertainty.     

Seasonal Flushing of Pollutant Concentrations and Loads in Urban Stormwater1

Schiff, Kenneth C. and Liesl L. Tiefenthaler, 2011. Seasonal Flushing of Pollutant Concentrations and Loads in Urban Stormwater. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):136‐142. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00497.x Abstract: Despite broad observations of first flush within storms, the scientific understanding of seasonal flushing remains incomplete. Seasonal flushing occurs when initial storms of the season have greater concentrations or loads than storms later in the season. The goal of this study was to census stormwater concentrations and loads from an arid, urban watershed to quantify seasonal flushing. Samples were collected every 15 min during the 1997‐1998 wet season from the Santa Ana River and analyzed for total suspended solids. Initial storms of the season generated event mean concentrations 3‐10 times the event mean concentration of storms later in the season. Cumulative flow‐weighted mean concentrations were calculated as the season progressed. Early season storms discharged only 6% of the annual volume, but influenced flow‐weighted mean concentrations well past the midpoint of the wet season. Mass‐based estimates also indicated a disproportionate load in the early portion of the year; over 52% of the annual load was discharged in the first 30% of the annual volume from the highly urbanized lower watershed. Other stormwater pollutants, including six trace metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Ni, Zn), were highly correlated with total suspended solids and also exhibited a significant seasonal flush.     

南京地区典型霾天气个例特征的比较分析

利用2011年南京大学城市大气环境观测站气象因子及污染物浓度资料、58238站点气象探空资料及NCEP再分析资料、CALIPSO卫星资料,比较分析了南京地区4类典型霾天气(烟花爆竹、沙尘、秸秆燃烧及不利气象条件污染)的污染特征.结果表明:烟花爆竹个例污染物排放集中,以细颗粒物为主,除夕和初五的PM2.5小时浓度分别达到0.46 mg·m-3和0.34 mg·m-3,受逆温层影响,能见度持续降低,最低达到1.16 km;受北方沙尘暴南下影响,沙尘个例以粗颗粒为主要污染物,PM10小时最高浓度为0.78 mg·m-3,PM2.5/PM10平均值为0.39,粒子形状不规则,体积偏退比为0.17;秸秆燃烧个例为重霾污染,能见度最低值为0.97 km,后向散射系数为0.0039 km-1獉sr-1,PM10和PM2.5最高小时浓度达到0.80 mg·m-3和0.49 mg·m-3,颗粒物主要来自南京东南地区秸秆的集中燃烧;不利气象条件导致的污染过程在冬季比较常见,下沉气流活跃,出现双层逆温,近地面静小风造成污染物积累,PM2.5与能见度的相关系数达到0.86,细颗粒物为主要污染物.可见,南京市霾天气可分为两类,分别是由不利气象条件导致的累积性污染和由高强度排放源造成的暴发性污染,具有不同的气象和污染特征.     

加速并行遗传算法及其在暴雨强度公式参数优化中的应用

针对标准遗传算法中存在早熟收敛、后期收敛速度慢以及解精度低的问题,结合正交试验设计和元胞自动机模型,提出了一种改进的遗传算法--加速并行遗传算法(APGA).APGA利用正交试验设计确定较好的初始种群,利用元胞自动机模型固有的并行计算能力设计并行遗传算法,借助元胞信息的动态性和多元性实现正交加速过程.该方法不仅能加快遗传算法的收敛速度,而且能提高遗传算法的搜索效率和解的精度,适用于求解复杂的非线性优化问题.APGA用于暴雨强度公式参数的优化实例结果表明,该算法是有效和可行的.