RECENT RESEARCH ON EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: Concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and other radiatively active trace gases have risen since the Industrial Revolution. Such atmospheric modifications can alter the global climate and hydrologic cycle, in turn affecting water resources. The clear physical and biological sensitivities of water resources to climate, the indication that climate change may be occurring, and the substantial social and economic dependencies on water resources have instigated considerable research activity in the area of potential water resource impacts. We discuss how the literature on climate change and water resources responds to three basic research needs: (1) a need for water managers to clearly describe the climatic and hydrologic statistics and characteristics needed to estimate climatic impacts on water resources, (2) a need to estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources, and (3) a need to evaluate standard water management and planning methods to determine if uncertainty regarding fundamental assumptions (e.g., hydrologic stationarity) implies that these methods should be revised. The climatic and hydrologic information needs for water resource managers can be found in a number of sources. A proliferation of impact assessments use a variety of methods for generating climate scenarios, and apply both modeling approaches and historical analyses of past responses to climate fluctuations for revealing resource or system sensitivities to climate changes. Traditional techniques of water resources planning and management have been examined, yielding, for example, suggestions for new methods for incorporating climate information in real-time water management.     

过氧化苯甲酰合成工艺热危险性分析

采用RC1e反应量热仪对过氧化苯甲酰(BPO)合成工艺危险性进行研究,测试不同Na OH溶液初始浓度(1.96 mol/L、3.93 mol/L、7.14 mol/L)下反应的放热历程,获得BPO合成反应过程中的热危险性参数,并采用PHI-TECⅡ绝热加速量热仪对产物进行热稳定性分析,最后评估该反应热风险。结果表明,Na OH浓度为7.14 mol/L时,反应初期放热速率慢,热累积度大,后期反应剧烈,绝热温升(ΔTad)及热失控时工艺反应达到的最高温度(MTSR)最大。热稳定性试验表明,合成的粗产物BPO初始分解温度、活化能、指前因子、最大放热速率到达时间为24 h时的对应温度(TD24)均低于纯BPO。利用合成粗产物BPO的TD24对反应进行危险度评估,该工艺热危险性等级均为5级,工艺危险性大。     

Effects of ignition energy on fire and explosion characteristics of dilute hybrid fuel in ventilation air methane

Deflagration explosions of coal dust clouds and flammable gases are a major safety concern in coal mining industry. Accidental fire and explosion caused by coal dust cloud can impose substantial losses and damages to people and properties in underground coal mines. Hybrid mixtures of methane and coal dust have the potential to reduce the minimum activation energy of a combustion reaction. In this study the Minimum Explosion Concentration (MEC), Over Pressure Rise (OPR), deflagration index for gas and dust hybrid mixtures (K_st) and explosive region of hybrid fuel mixtures present in Ventilation Air Methane (VAM) were investigated. Experiments were carried out according to the ASTM E1226-12 guideline utilising a 20 L spherical shape apparatus specifically designed for this purpose.Resultsobtained from this study have shown that the presence of methane significantly affects explosion characteristics of coal dust clouds. Dilute concentrations of methane, 0.75–1.25%, resulted in coal dust clouds OPR increasing from 0.3 bar to 2.2 bar and boosting the K_st value from 10 bar m s⁻¹ to 25 bar m s⁻¹. The explosion characteristics were also affected by the ignitors’ energy; for instance, for a coal dust cloud concentration of 50 g m⁻³ the OPR recorded was 0.09 bar when a 1 kJ chemical ignitor was used, while, 0.75 bar (OPR) was recorded when a 10 kJ chemical ignitor was used.For the first time, new explosion regions were identified for diluted methane-coal dust cloud mixtures when using 1, 5 and 10 kJ ignitors. Finally, the Le-Chatelier mixing rule was modified to predict the lower explosion limit of methane-coal dust cloud hybrid mixtures considering the energy of the ignitors.     

A Review of Water Quality Responses to Air Temperature and Precipitation Changes 1: Flow,Water Temperature,Saltwater Intrusion

Anticipated future increases in air temperature and regionally variable changes in precipitation will have direct and cascading effects on United States (U.S.) water quality. In this paper, and a companion paper by Coffey et al., we review technical literature addressing the responses of different water quality attributes to historical and potential future changes in air temperature and precipitation. The goal is to document how different attributes of water quality are sensitive to these drivers, to characterize future risk to inform management responses, and to identify research needs to fill gaps in our understanding. Here we focus on potential changes in streamflow, water temperature, and salt water intrusion (SWI). Projected changes in the volume and timing of streamflow vary regionally, with general increases in northern and eastern regions of the U.S., and decreases in the southern Plains, interior Southwest, and parts of the Southeast. Water temperatures have increased throughout the U.S. and are expected to continue to increase in the future, with the greatest changes in locations where high summer air temperatures occur together with low streamflow volumes. In coastal areas, especially the mid‐Atlantic and Gulf coasts, SWI to rivers and aquifers could be exacerbated by sea level rise, storm surges, and altered freshwater runoff. Management responses for reducing risks to water quality should consider strategies and practices robust to a range of potential future conditions.     

Implications of mangrove dynamics for private and use in bragança, north Brazil: a case study

This work analyses effects of recent variations in the tidal inundation frequency in a mangrove ecosystem in the Bragança peninsula, North Brazil, and its implications for land occupation and use. Field data, time series of remote sensing images and local legislation were analysed focusing on the potential socio-economic impact of a changing environmental setting due to a rise in relative sea level. In the investigated period (1972–1997), vegetation changes along the coastline indicate net losses of mangrove coverage. In the central part of the peninsula, a topographically higher herbaceous plain constituting part of a farm presents an active progression of mangrove forest into an area previously dominated by grasses and herbs. This area measured 8.8 km² in 1972 but was gradually reduced to 5.6 km² in 1997, while progressively replaced by a monospecific stand of the black mangrove,Avicennia germinans. A linear extrapolation indicates that the elevated plain may be completely covered by mangrove by 2035. Current Brazilian legislation prohibits the extraction of mangrove trees without an officially approved management plan. Thus, the usable area of the farm has suffered a reduction by ca. 36% over 25 yr and we predict that is could be entirely replaced by mangroves in the next 35 yr. In this case study, legislation and ecosystem characteristics are analysed and a management plan discussed which could represent income alternatives for affected resource users at the local and regional level.     

某海外项目应急机排烟扩散对直升机起降影响分析

目的对某海外海洋平台的直升机甲板上空直升机起降存在的风险进行分析。方法对比分析国内外的标准规范,确定以CAP437为直升机起降的量化衡量指标,在此基础上利用数值模拟软件对影响直升机起降的两个主要因素,温度场和湍流场进行模拟分析。结果无论是温升,还是湍流强度都不会对直升机的起降造成影响。结论该海外海洋平台上直升机甲板的不可用概率为0。同时确认此平台柴油应急机的烟气排放,及空调冷凝单元气体排放位置设置合理。     

Sea-Level Rise: Implications for Water Resources Management

Globally, sea level has been rising for more than the last one hundred years, and is expected to do so into the foreseeable future, and at an accelerating rate. The direct influences of sea-level rise on water resources come principally from the following: new or accelerated coastal erosion; more extensive coastal inundation and higher levels of sea flooding; increases in the landward reach of sea waves and storm surges; seawater intrusion into surface waters and coastal aquifers; and further encroachment of tidal waters into estuaries and coastal river systems. The impacts of sea-level rise are likely to be felt disproportionately in certain areas, reflecting both natural and socio-economic factors that enhance the levels of risks. The opportunity to learn about the likely nature of, and most appropriate adaptation to, the anticipated impacts of sea-level rise on water resources is arguably best developed in rapidly subsiding coastal areas, and especially in low-lying deltas where subsidence rates are typically much larger than the historic rise in global mean sea level. Significantly, such areas are often major centres of population and of economic activity, thereby highlighting the human dimensions of sea-level rise. Sound management of the risks to water resources associated with sea-level rise requires enhancing adaptive capacity, mainstreaming adaptation, harmonizing responses to extreme events, variability and long-term change and strengthening regional and international cooperation and coordination. In this regard, the policies and initiatives of international organisations are not always entirely consistent with the needs of developing countries.     

Global and Regional Impacts of Stabilizing Atmospheric CO2

Among the key issues of concern to the Climate Convention is the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations and the minimization of impacts to global agriculture, natural ecosystems and economic development. The purpose of this paper is to couple these issues in consistent, integrated scenarios, using the IMAGE 2.0 model as an integrating tool. Scenarios of gradual stabilization of atmospheric CO₂ at 350 and 450 ppm are compared to a baseline of no policy action in which CO₂ concentration increases to 777 ppm. Under the stabilizaton scenarios substantially smaller areas of wheat and millet, as well as nature reserves, are threatened by climate change, especially in temperate regions. The amount of sea level rise is also reduced under the stabilization scenarios. However, climate continues to change under the stabilization scenarios and therefore some ‘residual’ climate impacts occur. Hence the integrated scenarios indicate that stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at or slightly above current levels will lessen impacts as compared to baseline levels, but not eliminate them. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

高密度城市道路交通噪声的典型分布及其在战略环境评价(SEA)中的应用

分析了高密度城市道路交通噪声分布的特点，从噪声接受点评价的观点出发，以香港地区为例，研究不同建筑形态道路交通噪声的典型分布。基于方法是采用简化的DoT模型计算道路交通噪声，以基于GIS的道路交通噪声评价预测系统为工具计算不同建筑类型各单元的噪声级，再统计出各型建筑的噪声分布。通过Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验证实这些分布来自于不同总体，具有显著的差异。将上述计算结果运用于香港新界西北地区道路交通噪声的战略环境评价。     

石墨粉末润湿特性及其表面自由能的研究

利用毛细上升法测定了去离子水对石墨粉末的接触角,分析温度对石墨粉末润湿性的影响,并测算了石墨粉末的表面自由能,对将石墨用作净水滤料有指导作用.在20～40℃温度范围内接触角变化不大,平均为84.11°.其主要原因是表面张力σ和黏度η随温度变化对接触角的影响相反,综合作用结果导致接触角随温度变化不大.石墨粉末表面色散自由能为21.8 mJ·m-2,极性自由能为1.8 mJ·m-2,总的表面自由能约为23.6 mJ·m-2,以色散自由能为主.这是去离子水能够湿润石墨粉末,但湿润性相对较差的一个原因.可知极性流体对石墨粉末的润湿性比较差.